(Next 2 Quarters)
Limited Time Public View!
This page is a duplicate of the Bonds & Credit SII page for subscribers. It is currently one of our many SII’s and is provided as an example of what you can expect to see as a subscriber. At the bottom of the page you will find a ‘Watch List’ of instruments we are currently monitoring, one of them is clickable and leads to that specific securities SII page where you will find more information and a link to a live chart.
BONDS & CREDIT
ENDING DEBT SUPER CYCLE: NEGATIVE
“MINSKY” MELT-UP: POSITIVE
- INVESTMENT THESIS & STRATEGY
- A CARRY TRADE HURDLE
- US TREASURY SUPPLY TSUNAMI
- MONETARY TAPER & NORMALIZATION
- CREDIT CYCLE REVERSAL
- CORPORATE DEBT CRISIS
- ROAD MAP TO THE REPRICING OF RISK: POWER POINT
- GUIDE TO FINDING JUNK BONDS
“Corporate debt and their equity will face the biggest pain when the next downturn comes — Corporates are more levered than they were pre-crisis”
Infamous Greg Lippmann of “The Big Short”
THE CORPORATE DEBT LEVELS OF “ZOMBIE” CORPORATIONS AS WELL AS SELECT SOVEREIGN & EMERGING MARKET DEBT MAKE THEIR BONDS POTENTIAL MAJOR 2018-2019 ‘SHORT’ OPPORTUNITIES.
The next big financial downturn is likely to start in corporate debt. Easy-money monetary policies have allowed firms to load up on borrowings, with around 37 percent of companies being classed as highly leveraged in 2017 compared with 32 percent in 2007 prior to the last financial crisis.
PRESENT MATASII FOCUS IS TWO FOLD
1- HY CORPORATE JUNK BONDS – Is Setting Up for a Major Decline As Credit Markets Tighten (See “Road Map to Repricing of Risk” & Guide To Selecting Junk Bonds)
2- 10Y UST NOTE – A Yield Rise From 1.34% tp 3.15% is a Major Capital Appreciation Gain For Bonds
CORRECTIONS CAN BE ASSOCIATED WITH LOW SPREADS & AN UNPREDICTABLE TRIGGER We have one of the conditions!!
THERE ARE INSUFFICIENT DEBT BUYERS FOR TRUMP’S EXPLODING DEBT GROWTH — SOURCE: 05-03-18 Global Macro Monitor – “Prepare For Much Higher Long-Term Rates” — There has been a huge drain of liquidity from the U.S. Treasury market over the past few years, and may signal a structural change to how the United States finances budget deficits. […]
WARNING SIGNS IN CREDIT MARKETS APPEARING FOR ZOMBIE CORPORATIONS MARKET MESSAGE Private sector may give a more accurate signal for recession ‘We are entering dangerous territory’ on credit indicator — SOURCE: 05-01-18 Bloomberg – “There’s a New Curve in Town and It’s Flashing Red” — The private sector may hold the real clues to recession […]
Our previous update (Jan 21/2017) gave a couple of high probability possibilities to watch out for. Our first paragraph said: “An initial break of 2.3 offers potential opportunity for a drop to fill the first gap, with a another potential drop to the next blue s/r zone below”. This is pretty much what occurred. Initially the […]
SPECULATORS HAVE NEVER BEEN MORE SHORT BONDS…EVER? – NOR ARE SPECULATORS SELDOM RIGHT!! — SOURCE: 04-28-18 ZeroHedge “”This Won’t End Well” – Speculators Have Never Been More Short Bonds… Ever” — “It’s a no-brainer…” As the yield on the 10Y US Treasury note broke above the 3.00% Maginot Line this week (for the first time […]
ITS THE 2Y UST, NOT THE 10Y UST THAT IS WORRYING BOND INVESTORS — SOURCE: 04-24-18 ZeroHedge – “It’s 2-Year Yields, Not 10-Years, We Worry About Most” — Earlier today, we showed that according to a growing number of traders and strategists, “the scariest chart for investors” is not the 10Y, and whether or not it is […]
BoAML: “THE 10Y UST IS NO LONGER A “SAFE ASSET” – HERE’S WHY” — SOURCE: 04-26-18 ZeroHedge – “BofA: The 10Y Treasury Is No Longer A “Safe Asset”, Here’s Why” — At the end of his lengthy presentation to DoubleLine investors in January, Jeff Gundlach, who was aggressively pitching commodities at the time, a trade that has […]
JUNK BONDS AT RECORD NET LEVERAGE LEVELS AS INTEREST COVERAGE RATIO FALLS HY Leverage at record highs.. HY spreads returned to their January tights while their IG (Investment Grade) and EM (Emerging Markets) counterparts remain significantly wider…
Limited Time Public View! (cont.)
Here is the Watch List of securities for the Bonds & Credit SII. While we are currently only watching 4 at the moment for Bonds & Credit, other SII Watch Lists contain 25+. The symbol for TNX links to its SII page where you can find more information and a live chart link. Remaining symbols are similarly linked for subscribers.
MORE on Watch Lists
Note potential technical trigger levels for Long and Short are given: these are taken directly from the chart and can be found in our IDEAS. When the market reaches either of the levels, the Current Price will light up, alerting that possible action is near.