(Next 2 Quarters)
Limited Time Public View!
This page is a duplicate of the Bonds & Credit SII page for subscribers. It is currently one of our many SII’s and is provided as an example of what you can expect to see as a subscriber. At the bottom of the page you will find a ‘Watch List’ of instruments we are currently monitoring, one of them is clickable and leads to that specific securities SII page where you will find more information and a link to a live chart.
BONDS & CREDIT
ENDING DEBT SUPER CYCLE: NEGATIVE
“MINSKY” MELT-UP: POSITIVE
- INVESTMENT THESIS & STRATEGY
- A CARRY TRADE HURDLE
- US TREASURY SUPPLY TSUNAMI
- MONETARY TAPER & NORMALIZATION
- CREDIT CYCLE REVERSAL
- CORPORATE DEBT CRISIS
- ROAD MAP TO THE REPRICING OF RISK: POWER POINT
- GUIDE TO FINDING JUNK BONDS
“Corporate debt and their equity will face the biggest pain when the next downturn comes — Corporates are more levered than they were pre-crisis”
Infamous Greg Lippmann of “The Big Short”
THE CORPORATE DEBT LEVELS OF “ZOMBIE” CORPORATIONS AS WELL AS SELECT SOVEREIGN & EMERGING MARKET DEBT MAKE THEIR BONDS POTENTIAL MAJOR 2018-2019 ‘SHORT’ OPPORTUNITIES.
The next big financial downturn is likely to start in corporate debt. Easy-money monetary policies have allowed firms to load up on borrowings, with around 37 percent of companies being classed as highly leveraged in 2017 compared with 32 percent in 2007 prior to the last financial crisis.
PRESENT MATASII FOCUS IS TWO FOLD
1- HY CORPORATE JUNK BONDS – Is Setting Up for a Major Decline As Credit Markets Tighten (See “Road Map to Repricing of Risk” & Guide To Selecting Junk Bonds)
2- 10Y UST NOTE – A Yield Rise From 1.34% tp 3.15% is a Major Capital Appreciation Gain For Bonds
THE FED MAY BE FORCED TO OVER-TIGHTEN DUE TO AN END OF CYCLE “TIGHTENING TANTRUM” RED ANNOTATIONS BY MATASII.com – Chart Courtesy of ZeroHedge.com A Continuation Pattern Suggesting an Inverted Yield Curve in Q2 2019 — SOURCE: 09-19-18 – “Why The Long-End Is Coming Unglued” — With 30Y yields blowing out, the long end is “coming […]
INVESTORS TO BE FOCUSED ON THIS “DOT” DURING THE SEPTEMBER 26th FOMC ANNOUNCEMENT — SOURCE: 09-19-18 – “All Eyes Will Be On This Dot During Next Week’s FOMC Meeting” — With a 25bps rate hike during next Wednesday’s FOMC meeting virtually assured, trader attentions will be focused on something else entirely: the median 2019 dot, […]
THE RECESSION STARTED THE LAST TIME BONDS WERE THIS ATTRACTIVE VERSUS STOCKS — SOURCE: 09-18-18 – “The Last Time Bonds Were This Attractive Vs Stocks, The Recession Started” — The long-end of the Treasury yield curve is blowing out today: whether due to technicals, now that the 3% level has been breached, or amid expectations […]
LACY HUNT ON THE US TREASURY LONG BOND Expectations and Disappointments Coming out of 2017, expectations were widespread that a synchronized global expansion lay ahead for 2018. Forward momentum was thought to prevail in Europe, Japan and the emerging markets. A doubling of the growth rate in public and private debt in 2017 over the […]
BLOOMBERG: TRUMP TAX CUTS ARE WHY US BOND YIELDS AREN’T HIGHER The government’s fiscal policies amount to robbing Peter to pay Paul. — SOURCE: A. Gary Shilling, Bloomberg – “Tax Cuts Are Why U.S. Bond Yields Aren’t Higher” — The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note yield has risen 49 basis points since the beginning […]
FED FUND FUTURES DON’T BELIEVE WHAT THE FED IS CURRENTLY “SPINNING” The Fed Funds target rate according to the FOMC members’ median ‘Dot Plot” is UP. The Fed Funds Futures market says down! The markets don’t believe what the Fed is currently “spinning”!
SHORT INTEREST IN GLOBAL JUNK BOND ETF’S JUST HIT AN ALL TIME HIGH
JP MORGAN CEO JAMIE DIMON WARNS OF 5% TREASURY YIELDS JPMorgan CEO sees potential for 10-year yield to reach 5 % Says c–rrent bull market could run for 2 or 3 more years — SOURCE: 08-06-18 Bloomberg – “Jamie Dimon Warns of 5% Treasury Yields” — Noting content with a previous warning that investors should brace for […]
Limited Time Public View! (cont.)
Here is the Watch List of securities for the Bonds & Credit SII. While we are currently only watching 4 at the moment for Bonds & Credit, other SII Watch Lists contain 25+. The symbol for TNX links to its SII page where you can find more information and a live chart link. Remaining symbols are similarly linked for subscribers.
MORE on Watch Lists
Note potential technical trigger levels for Long and Short are given: these are taken directly from the chart and can be found in our IDEAS. When the market reaches either of the levels, the Current Price will light up, alerting that possible action is near.