Gordon T Long Global Macro Research | Macro-Technical Analysis MACRO US MONETARY POLICY FED TIGHTENING YET FINANCIAL CONDITIONS ARE LOOSENING?? One of the objectives we have in writing this weekly newsletter is to share with you our macro and market insights. We thought it important to address a confusion we are hearing on how […]
MM Risk
“TOLL BOOTHS” NEAR COMPLETION
Gordon T Long Global Macro Research | Macro-Technical Analysis MATA RISK “TOLL BOOTHS” NEAR COMPLETION Perhaps most troubling to me currently is the precipitous drop in real disposable income, which fell over $1 trillion in 2022. For context, this is the second-largest percentage drop in real disposable income ever, behind only 1932, the worst year […]
THE “JAWS” WILL BEGIN TO CLOSE IN APRIL WITH EARNINGS GUIDANCE
THE “JAWS” WILL BEGIN TO CLOSE IN APRIL WITH EARNINGS GUIDANCE MATASII RESEARCH ANALYSIS & SYNTHESIS: Is the bond market right in anticipating a period of acute deflation and/or recession, or is it wrong and stocks, which are less than 5% below their all-time highs, correct in their optimistic outlook? There have been two conflicting […]
SHIFTING RISK: NEW “MOST CROWDED TRADE” & “BIGGEST TAIL RISK”
SHIFTING SENTIMENT: NEW “MOST CROWDED TRADE” & “BIGGEST TAIL RISK” A PUBLIC SOURCED ARTICLE FOR MATASII (SUBSCRIBERS-RESEARCH & PUBLIC ACCESS ) READERS REFERENCE MATA: RISK SOURCE: 03-19-19 – – “There Is A New “Most Crowded Trade” And “Biggest Tail Risk” On Wall Street” MATASII SYNTHESIS: MOST CROWDED TRADE: Short European Equities BIGGEST TAIL RISK: China Slowdown FULL SOURCE […]
CONSUMER CONFIDENCE PEAKS AS SAVINGS HITS CYCLICAL LOWS
CONSUMER CONFIDENCE PEAKS AS SAVINGS HITS CYCLICAL LOWS A PUBLIC SOURCED ARTICLE FOR MATASII (SUBSCRIBERS-RESEARCH & PUBLIC ACCESS ) READERS REFERENCE MATA: RISK MATASII SYNTHESIS: The yawning gap between the savings rate (low and getting lower) and consumer confidence (high and getting higher) reflects American consumers’ aptitude to borrow and spend at just the wrong time. Cyclical […]
BMO: OUR MARKET TIMING MODEL IS ABOUT AS NEGATIVE AS IT EVER GETS!
BMO: OUR MARKET TIMING MODEL IS ABOUT AS NEGATIVE AS IT EVER GETS! A PUBLIC SOURCED ARTICLE FOR MATASII (SUBSCRIBERS & PUBLIC ACCESS) READERS REFERENCE SOURCE: 03-13-19 – – “BMO: Our Market Timing Model Is About As Negative As It Ever Gets” MATASII SYNTHESIS: “The divergence between the S&P 500 and the U.S. 2-year yield (which have […]
SHADOW BANKING HAS AGAIN MASKED RISK THROUGH DEBT RATINGS, COLLATERAL TRANSFORMATION & CLO’S,
SHADOW BANKING HAS AGAIN MASKED RISK THROUGH DEBT RATINGS, COLLATERAL TRANSFORMATION & CLO’S, A PUBLIC SOURCED ARTICLE FOR MATASII (SUBSCRIBERS-RESEARCH & PUBLIC ACCESS ) READERS REFERENCE MATA: DRIVERS – CREDIT 12-22-18 – “Is This ‘Tinder For Corporate Credit’ The Latest Harbinger Of A Debt Implosion?” MATASII TAKEAWAYS: Wells Fargo and JPM are presently stuck with more than $400 […]
THESE ARE “POLICY MISTAKE FLOWS” – THERE IS A FEAR OF A “CREDIT EVENT” & “POLICY IMPOTENCE”!
THESE ARE “POLICY MISTAKE FLOWS” – THERE IS A FEAR OF A “CREDIT EVENT” & “POLICY IMPOTENCE”! A PUBLIC SOURCED ARTICLE FOR MATASII (SUBSCRIBERS-RESEARCH & PUBLIC ACCESS ) READERS REFERENCE MATA: RISK 12-21-18 – “”A Sea Of Fed”: Record Outflows Confirm “Policy Mistake”” MATASII TAKEAWAYS: These are “Policy Mistake Flows”: With the Fed hiking for the 9th time, […]
OMINOUS SIGNAL: CTA’S JUST FLIPPED SHORT! POTENTIAL AVALANCHE WHEN S&P 500 < 2480
OMINOUS SIGNAL: CTA’S JUST FLIPPED SHORT! POTENTIAL AVALANCHE WHEN S&P 500 < 2480 A PUBLIC SOURCED ARTICLE FOR MATASII (SUBSCRIBERS & PUBLIC ACCESS) READERS REFERENCE 12-20-18 – “Watch Out Below: For The First Time In Three Years, CTAs Just Flipped Short” MATASII TAKEAWAYS: Sentiment has clearly turned increasingly negative with bears increasing their domination of the market, […]
THE NEXT BIG MARKET RISK: HERE COMES A SHARP SLOWDOWN IN STOCK BUYBACKS
THE NEXT BIG MARKET RISK: HERE COMES A SHARP SLOWDOWN IN STOCK BUYBACKS A PUBLIC SOURCED ARTICLE FOR MATASII (SUBSCRIBERS-RESEARCH & PUBLIC ACCESS ) READERS REFERENCE MATA: RISK OFF-ON 11-04-18 – “The Next Big Market Risk: Here Comes A Sharp Slowdown In Stock Buybacks” MATASII TAKEAWAYS: Companies’ appetite to repurchase their own shares appears to be slowing sharply, […]