Gordon T Long Global Macro Research | Macro-Technical Analysis TIPPING POINTS GEO-POLITICAL EVENT GEO-POLITICAL TENSIONS ROOTED IN SHIFTING SENTIMENT As we outlined in the June 2020 UnderTheLens video, Peter Turchin’s cycle of social integration and disintegration outlined in his 2016 book Ages of Discord concludes: Human history manifests cycles of social disintegration and integration in […]
Gordon T Long Global Macro Research | Macro-Technical Analysis TIPPING POINTS PUBLIC SENTIMENT & CONFIDENCE WHY A MIND-BLOWING SPIKE IN THE PERSONAL SAVINGS RATE? Over the past few weeks there has been an extraordinary shift in the market’s mindset. We have moved from expectations of a stock market wipe-out and bond Armageddon into […]
WHY ARE MANY SMALL BUSINESSES PREPARING FOR RECESSION? Small businesses are often said to be the backbone of the United States economy. Many small business owners have already begun their own preparations for the next financial downturn; maybe they know something we aren’t being told by the mainstream media. According to a new survey by Bank […]
INVESTORS DON’T TRUST THIS RALLY BUT ARE INCREASINGLY AFRAID TO BE MISSING OUT The AAII Investor Sentiment Survey shows that Neutral sentiment saw a sharp decline falling to 39.63% from 46.31%. That is the largest decline since the final week of 2018 when the market bottomed and a very large portion of investors reported outright […]
FEDERAL RESERVE HAS INSTILLED AN UNPRECEDENTED LEVEL OF MARKET COMPLACENCY It is reported: Last week we noted that something unusual had happened in the equity market volatility complex. Specifically, VIX had collapsed at its fastest pace in history. From over 36 to almost a 10 handle a week ago, the Fed’s flip-flop had re-energized the sell-vol-at-all-costs trade that has […]
LABOR MARKET SENTIMENT FALSELY SPIKES CONSUMER CONFIDENCE The Conference Board reported that April Consumer Confidence rebounded from 124.2 to 129.2, a sharp beat to the 126.8 expected. The Present Situation Index – based on consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions – increased, from 163.0 to 168.3. The Expectations Index – based on […]
COMPLACENCY IS ONCE AGAIN A MAJOR RISK MATASII RESEARCH ANALYSIS & SYNTHESIS: Investors fear volatility. Low levels of implied volatility are the result of investors that are complacent and not protecting against risks. Conversely, when volatility is higher, investors tend to be anxious, concerned about the future and as such take prudent actions to hedge […]
NFIB SMALL BUSINESS OPTIMISM SUDDENLY & DRAMATICALLY PLUNGES! A PUBLIC SOURCED ARTICLE FOR MATASII (SUBSCRIBERS-RESEARCH & PUBLIC ACCESS ) READERS REFERENCE MATA: SENTIMENT – CONSUMER CONFIDENCE MATASII SYNTHESIS: The National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) Small Business Optimism Index has dropped significantly (in red)! Consumer Confidence (in blue) has completed its Head & Shoulder pattern formation. We […]
THE NFIB SMALL BUSINESS OPTIMISM INDEX HAS DRAMATICALLY TURNED DOWN – WHAT ARE THEY WORRIED ABOUT? A PUBLIC SOURCED ARTICLE FOR MATASII (SUBSCRIBERS-RESEARCH & PUBLIC ACCESS ) READERS REFERENCE MATA: SENTIMENT – SMALL BUSINESS OPTIMISM INDEX MATASII SYNTHESIS: We have annotated the February NFIB Small Business Optimism Index as charted by dshort.com Something has significantly changed within […]
“RIGHT SHOULDER” NOW COMPLETE IN CONSUMER CONFIDENCE & U of M SENTIMENT A PUBLIC SOURCED ARTICLE FOR MATASII (SUBSCRIBERS-RESEARCH & PUBLIC ACCESS ) READERS REFERENCE MATA: SENTIMENT – CONSUMER CONFIDENCE MATASII SYNTHESIS: We have annotated the February Consumer Confidence as charted by dshort.com The latest Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index is based on data collected through February […]
