Gordon T Long Global Macro Research | Macro-Technical Analysis TIPPING POINTS BOND BUBBLE LONG END OF THE TREASURY YIELD CURVE IS BREAKING HIGHER! Right on-time US Treasury Yields are spiking higher, as we have been warning of in prior newsletters. As we outlined, this Is a result of the correlation since 2008 with the […]
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RISING INFLATION YET RISING REAL RATES????
Gordon T Long Global Macro Research | Macro-Technical Analysis TIPPING POINTS RISING INTEREST RATES RISING INFLATION YET RISING REAL RATES???? We clearly have mounting inflation pressures yet we are also seeing rising real rates. How exactly does that work?? To understand how this could happen is to understand what lies ahead! First, Real Rates […]
CORPORATE FUNDAMENTALS DISCONNECTED WITH ‘BAKED-IN” FUTURE REALITY
CORPORATE FUNDAMENTALS DISCONNECTED WITH ‘BAKED-IN” FUTURE REALITY MATASII RESEARCH ANALYSIS & SYNTHESIS: The problem with current Corporate Fundamentals is: 1- RISING LABOR COSTS & LOST PRICING POWER A big part of the past decade’s spike in corporate profits came at the expense of workers, who saw real wages stagnate while the cost of living rose. […]
GLOBAL CDS – WINNERS & LOSERS
GLOBAL CDS – WINNERS & LOSERS — MATASII RESEARCH ANALYSIS & SYNTHESIS — These tables show the largest 25 companies, ranked by market cap & credit default swap spreads, as well as the most creditworthy countries. CORPORATION 17bps: the CDS of the “safest” company in the world, Nestle. Alibaba the least (CDS = 84bp). COUNTRY […]
GLOBAL DEBT TOPS $244.2T, CRITICALLY EXCEEDING 3X GLOBAL GDP
GLOBAL DEBT TOPS $244.2T, CRITICALLY EXCEEDING 3X GLOBAL GDP — MATASII RESEARCH ANALYSIS & SYNTHESIS — As of Q3 2018 global debt equaled $244.2T, equivalent to 318% of world GDP. This is nearly 3X Global GDP. While debt is at a record high, interest rates are close to record lows (via Financial Repression) which […]
CHINA JUST BORROWED 5% OF GDP IN ONE MONTH – COMPARABLE ONLY TO WWII LEVELS
CHINA JUST BORROWED 5% OF GDP IN ONE MONTH – COMPARABLE ONLY TO WWII LEVELS A PUBLIC SOURCED ARTICLE FOR MATASII (SUBSCRIBERS & PUBLIC ACCESS) READERS REFERENCE MATASII SYNTHESIS: Rabobank strategist, Michael Every via ZH China’s PPI data said it is sliding into deflation again – and borrowing for January was insane. If the January pace […]
WITH RISING LABOR RATES IT WAS ONLY A MATTER OF TIME: MAJOR CONSUMER BRANDS HAVE BEGUN RAISING PRICES
WITH RISING LABOR RATES IT WAS ONLY A MATTER OF TIME: MAJOR CONSUMER BRANDS HAVE BEGUN RAISING PRICES A PUBLIC SOURCED ARTICLE FOR MATASII (SUBSCRIBERS & PUBLIC ACCESS) READERS REFERENCE MATASII SYNTHESIS: The WSJ and others are reporting on rising prices from Diapers & Clorox to Cat Litter. The key reported findings are: After finding they could […]
MATASII JANUARY 2019 NOTES: THE GLOBAL BOND BUBBLE
MATASII JANUARY 2019 NOTES: THE GLOBAL BOND BUBBLE A PUBLIC SOURCED ARTICLE FOR MATASII (SUBSCRIBERS & PUBLIC ACCESS) READERS REFERENCE MATASII SYNTHESIS: Companies “don’t go and distribute cash to their shareholders in the form of buybacks or dividends if they have good investments to make of a long-term capital nature.” The surge in Bank payouts underscores […]
DOES THE MARKET HAVE LEGS? PRIVATE EQUITY MAY SHOW THE WAY!
DOES THE MARKET HAVE LEGS? PRIVATE EQUITY MAY SHOW THE WAY! The market is reacting to late-cycle expectations in the Credit Markets. Widening HY Spreads, investors pulling money from Leveraged Loans and CLO (Collateralized Loan Obligations) worries of an IG “BBB” downgrade wave all are weighing heavily on the credit market and increasing market volatility. […]
MATASII JANUARY 2019 SYNTHESIS NOTES: FLOWS & LIQUIDITY
MATASII JANUARY 2019 SYNTHESIS NOTES: FLOWS & LIQUIDITY FLOWS & LIQUIDITY ARE A DOWNSTREAM ELEMENT OF A SELF REINFORCING FEEDBACK LOOP PRESENTLY UNDERWAY WE HAVE AN ALARMING NEGATIVE REINFORCING FEEDBACK LOOP BETWEEN LIQUIDITY, VOLUME & VOLATILITY Liquidity has become to a large extent driven by market volatility and volumes. This is a reinforcing […]