ELLIOTT WAVE ANALYSIS SUGGESTS TRUMP'S PRESIDENCY MAY END SIMILAR TO HOOVERS
MATA: PATTERNS - ELLIOTT WAVE ANALYSIS
11-27-18 - Avi Gilburt using Tradestation platform - "Sentiment Speaks: Are We Approaching A 'Once-In-A-Century' Type Event In The Stock Market?"
- We have extracted only the salient quotes & analysis below.
... I think we will see several more years of rallying before this bull market, which began in 2009, will come to an end.
- And, worse yet, I think that we can enter a bear market that can last as long as 20 years, and which can rival that which was seen during the Great Depression.
- When we top out in wave V of (III) on my monthly chart, the ensuing wave (IV) is of the same degree as the Great Depression, as that was the wave (II) within this very long-term 5-wave Elliott Wave structure.
- While we know that history does repeat itself (maybe not exactly, but it certainly does rhyme), I think the probabilities of seeing a similar environment to that of the Great Depression will be quite elevated, especially as we approach the bottom of the c-wave of wave (IV).
.... my view is that the next major top we see in a few years from now may usher in a period to rival that of the Great Depression, but potentially over a more protracted period of time.
- The main reason I think it will potentially last for more than 10 years is that the 4th wave of one lesser degree (outlined by the a-b-c structure in blue IV between 2000 and 2009) is a 4th wave of one lesser degree, and that lasted for nine years.
- A 4th wave of a greater degree will likely take much longer than one of a lesser degree.
... I will also note my alternative perspective, presented in dark green on my attached monthly chart, which still would see a four- to-eight-year bear market (alt (2)), but can project this bull run off the 2009 lows to continue for much longer.
Unfortunately, we will not be able to make any assessments about this more bullish potential for probably at least 10 years.