Our original post and ideas can be seen on the left hand chart (JCP daily), posted May 11th, 2016. The right hand chart is the current daily JCP (March 14th, 2016). The long term macro bias for this has been negative, and overall the market is now down 25% ($8 - $6). It could have been a bumpy ride however, depending on when you decided to go short.
If you had decided to trade the market based on the technicals, there were several opportunities to consider. It is not expected that anyone would have been able to follow and trades correctly at every opportunity shown below; numbers #1-7 however do show the obvious potential technical trades that could have been pulled out, following the market road map provided by the HPTZ method. Only catching one or two of the potential shown could have made for a nice year.
- Market falls through potential technical trigger ($7.85) and drops down to the top of the green s/r zone ($7.20), as indicated by the orange dashed arrow as a potential move. + 8.3%
- JCP breaks over potential technical trigger at $7.85, lifts through blue s/r zone and continues on to the next potential technical trigger consideration given at $9.50. + 21%
- Market lifts over $9.50, moves up through two blue s/r zones, finding resistance from the top of the second zone around $11.25. While the market fails to continue lifting to our indicated potential target level / technical, a few days of resistance would have allowed an opportunity to get out with + 18.4%. 3B: Dropping out of the blue s/r at the top of 3 and following JCP back to the original technical entry consideration at $9.50 would have been another potential + 15.8% ($11 - $9.50)
- A break below the technical consideration at $9.50 and a drop to the next technical consideration at $7.85 + 17%
- Market bounces off technical consideration, lifts through blue s/r zone and up over $10.50. Lifting through the blue s/r zone could have had an $8.50 entry; the market tops between two blue s/r zones, on the way back an exit around $10.30 as the market dropped back in to blue s/r zone is not unreasonable. + 21%
- This was a decent move, technically allowing an entry as the market dropped out of the blue s/r zone at the top of 6 ($9.90). The market quickly moved through the next orange highlighted technical consideration at $7.85, and drops to the next consideration at the bottom of the green s/r zone ($6.80). The market does drop a little lower, however it finds some support at the orange technical, likely signalling it a good place to take profits. + 31.3%
- Here we see a gap down through the technical trigger consideration, however the break of the blue s/r just below offered a potential alternative ($6.50), and the market drops to the next technicals at $5.90. + 9%
You would have to be pretty nimble to catch all the moves given above, however they were technically possible if you were wanting to be on top of it daily. All told, the pieces add up to 141.8% collectively. That however is just the % gain of each leg. IF you had started with $100 at leg 1, and then rolled over your new balance at each leg using the new totals from the previous gain, you could have compounded your initial $100 in to approximately $368.00, or a 368% overall gain for the year.