LABOR MARKET SENTIMENT FALSELY SPIKES CONSUMER CONFIDENCE

  • The Conference Board reported that April Consumer Confidence rebounded from 124.2 to 129.2, a sharp beat to the 126.8 expected.
  • The Present Situation Index – based on consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions – increased, from 163.0 to 168.3.
  • The Expectations Index – based on consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business and labor market conditions – increased from 98.3 last month to 103.0 this month.

This followed several disappointing economic reports, including a continued slump in nationwide home prices and a crash in the Chicago PMI

WHY?

  • Respondents' assessment of the labor market was more upbeat, with those stating jobs are “plentiful” increased from 42.5%to 46.8%, while those claiming jobs are “hard to get” decreased from 13.8% to 13.3%.
  • As a result, the difference between the two series rose to 33.5, just shy of the highest print this cycle, and approaching levels last seen just before the dot com bubble burst.

 

“Consumer Confidence partially rebounded in April, following March’s decline, but still remains below levels seen last Fall." Franco noted that "the Present Situation Index, which had decreased sharply last month, improved in April, as did consumers’ short-term outlook. Overall, consumers expect the economy to continue growing at a solid pace into the summer months. These strong confidence levels should continue to support consumer spending in the near-term."   -- Lynn Franco, Senior Director of Economic Indicators at The Conference Board

RESULT:

The small upward squiggle on the right side of the chart below (which we have circled):

 

 

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MATASII RESEARCH ANALYSIS & SYNTHESIS WAS SOURCED FROM:

Abstracted from:  04-30-19 -  - "Consumer Confidence Spikes As Labor Market Sentiment Approaches Record High"

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