MACRO ANALYTIC COVERAGE UPDATED

10Y UST  - "TNX" YIELD

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MATASII SYNTHESIS:

  • We see significant support for the 10Y UST Yield at 2.39%,
  • We would cover our shorts if yield bounces off this support level.
  • We would expect to see a Fibonacci Retracement reversal from the 2.39% level

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS OUTLINE INDEX:

  1. ORIGINAL IDEA
  2. PRIMARY INDICATOR - Longer Term: 6 Months - 2 Years
    1. 12 & 24 Monthly MA Bands
    2. 5/13/21 Monthly EMA
  3. SECONDARY INDICATOR - Intermediate Term - 3 Months - 12 Months
    1. 20/40/80 Weekly - MATA Indicator
    2. 20/40/80 Weekly MA Bollinger Bands
  4. TERTIARY  INDICATOR - Near Term - Next 1- 3 Months
    1. 50/100/200 DMA
    2. 89 DMA w/BB

ORIGINAL IDEA - LAST IDEA UPDATE: APRIL 30th 2018

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PRIMARY INDICATOR - Long Term: 6 Months - 2 Years

  • SHORT POSITION TRIGGERED AT 3.06%  - In Transition, Not Yet Trending
  • Need Confirmation for downward trend. We have not got it yet and as such this could quite easily be a counter rally in a still upward BIAS.

 

  • We are watching the 5 MMA which is still above 21,
  • Though the 13 MMA is trending down it is still above the 21 MMA.
  • We see firm support at ~ 2.39%

 

SECONDARY INDICATOR - Intermediate Term - 3 Months - 12 Months

  • MATA INDICATOR (Bottom Panel)  shows support still at lower Yield,

 

  • We have a Long Term  "closing high' trend channel (in dotted red) which will provide some support,
  • We have parallel channel lower support (shown in black) which suggests the consolidation extends out in time.

 

TERTIARY  INDICATOR - Near Term - Next 1- 3 Months

  • Price is against the lower 200 DMA, 2 standard deviation Bollinger Band,

 

  • The 89 DMA Lower Bollinger Band will provide near term support,
  • The MATA Indicator is approaching a bottom.

 

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