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FEATURE ARTICLES & KEY FOCUSES

  • IN-DEPTH: TRANSCRIPTION – “ARE CENTRAL BANKS CAUGHT IN THE FIRST GLOBALIZATION TRAP?
    July 12, 2017
    ARE CENTRAL BANKS CAUGHT IN THE FIRST GLOBALIZATION TRAP AGENDA THE GLOBALIZATION TRAP ECHO BOOM GLOBAL POLICY UNCERTAINTY CENTRAL BANKS "NORMALIZATION' GUIDANCE THE PROBLEM - CAN'T STOP THE TURNING CREDIT CYCLE THE EURODOLLAR SHORTAGE WHERE WE ARE HEADED WHAT TO WATCH FOR THE GLOBALIZATION TRAP SLIDE #1 In 2014 our annual Thesis was entitled "The Globalization
  • ON THE VERGE OF ANOTHER FED POLICY MISTAKE
    June 28, 2017
    ON THE VERGE OF ANOTHER FED POLICY MISTAKE What we have been witnessing in the global markets is strong push back against US Monetary Policy and Guidance. Global money sees the Fed making yet another Policy mistake! Here is what has been occurring: >A Weakening Growth Expectations, has lead to >Weakening Inflation Expectations,  which has
  • THE COMING GLOBAL JOBS CRISIS IN AN ERA OF UNRELENTING ROBOTIC ADVANCEMENTS
    June 15, 2017
    THE COMING GLOBAL JOBS CRISIS IN AN ERA OF UNRELENTING ROBOTIC ADVANCEMENTS UNDERSTANDING ROBOTIC ADVANCEMENTS Advancements in Robotic technology have reached critical mass resulting in increasing numbers of university programs focused on Robotics. This along with industry adoption rates as a result of labor cost pressures and availability of ubiquitous communications enabling technology like "cloud computing", "bluetooth" and
  • THE 5 STAR MARKET GENERALS MAY BE LEADING US INTO HARMS WAY!
    May 16, 2017
    THE 5 STAR MARKET GENERALS MAY BE LEADING US INTO HARMS WAY! HISTORIC COLLAPSE IN MARKET BREADTH We are witnessing a startling breakdown in market breadth. It is worse than both prior to the 1987 and  2000 market draw downs. Similar to the Dotcom Bubble when it finally burst in 2000, it is being held up by
  • HOW COLLEGE HAS BECOME A RACKET!
    May 9, 2017
    HOW COLLEGE HAS BECOME A RACKET! I recently highlighted the STUDENT SERVITUDE SHAM operating in America but since then our continuing investigation (which I will summarize below) has  forced us to more appropriately label it a "racket"!   We define "racket" as a business activity which is misleading, not fully "above board" and takes advantage of
  • THE STUDENT SERVITUDE SHAM
    May 1, 2017
    THE STUDENT SERVITUDE SHAM Many today strongly believe it is morally wrong to indenture students to the degree of liabilities presently required to achieve the education required to become a productive contributor within our modern society. The question we need to demand answers to is why has college costs for students exploded upward, while salaries and job positions for graduates has
  • WHAT MAKES MILLENNIALS DISTURBINGLY DIFFERENT?
    April 4, 2017
    WHAT MAKES MILLENNIALS DISTURBINGLY DIFFERENT? IN STEALTH FASHION MILLENNIALS ARE RAPIDLY TRANSFORMING SOCIETY Something had mysteriously changed during the 2016 US Presidential primaries when an unlikely democratic candidate burst on the national scene with an unquestionable allure for the Millennial generation. How was it that a 'left wing' Bernie Sanders, who was of an age that
  • IN DEPTH: THE REALITY OF A POTENTIAL US RECESSION IS RAPIDLY RISING
    April 3, 2017
    THE REALITY OF A POTENTIAL US RECESSION IS RAPIDLY RISING A FIRST TERM PRESIDENT We need to remember that it has been over 7 years since the US had its last recession. This is historically a long time. Also, few realize that normally a first term President faces a recession in his first year in
  • THE AUTO INDUSTRY IS ABOUT TO DRIVE OFF A CLIFF — AGAIN!
    April 3, 2017
    THE AUTO INDUSTRY IS ABOUT TO DRIVE OFF A CLIFF -- AGAIN! SELF INFLICTED ABUSE In the fall of 2015 we released a video study entitled: "The Coming Global Auto Abyss - Too Much Supply, Too Many Brands; Combine with Too Much Credit!".  We concluded that low interest rate monetary policy for the auto industry was like
  • WHY THE STATUS QUO IS UNDER INCREASING ATTACK BY ‘POPULIST PEOPLE POWER’
    March 19, 2017
    WHY THE STATUS QUO IS UNDER INCREASING ATTACK BY 'POPULIST PEOPLE POWER' PROTECTING THE STATUS QUO IS FAILING We need to fully appreciate yet another example of what the mainstream media doesn't yet get!  The "People" increasingly don't see the system working for them anymore and have as consequence become much more willing to try
  • CAPTAIN TRUMP, SIR – THE USS MAGA IS TAKING WATER!
    March 16, 2017
    CAPTAIN TRUMP, SIR - THE USS MAGA IS TAKING WATER! Newly commissioned Captain Donald "Horatio" Trump may possibly be a sound skipper, but he has an untested & unseasoned crew, a fiscal boat with rotten gunnels and a economic storm ahead. His freshly minted battle plan may have been sound when he boarded USS MAGA (Make America
  • THE SHILLER CAPE, RATE CYCLES & FINANCIAL REPRESSION
    March 11, 2017
    THE SHILLER CAPE, RATE CYCLES & FINANCIAL REPRESSION The Shiller CAPE (Cyclically Adjusted Price-Earnings) Ratio is found to be inversely correlated to interest rates over long periods of time. Generally you would expect PE's  as well as the 10 year Shiller CAPE to expand as interest rates fall and to contract as they rise. What may
  • IS STAGFLATION STALKING?
    March 9, 2017
    IS STAGFLATION STALKING? THE ANSWER IS CRITICAL TO YOUR FINANCIAL HEALTH! It is important to anticipate whether Stagflation is stalking because the yield curve will start pricing it in which will place equity yields, earnings and PE growth multiples at risk. We believe there are clear signs of stagflation already occurring and according to the recent Global
  • CHARTING THE MADDENING MARKET MESSAGES
    March 7, 2017
    CHARTING THE MADDENING MARKET MESSAGES Why are we getting such diverging  and maddening market messages from the equity and bond markets?  Which one is right?  Are either right? MARKET PERCEPTIONS Let's consider the perceptions of each of these markets: EQUITY MARKET  The Equity Markets perceives Trumponomic Policy SUCCESS  ahead and are aggressively pricing it in! The level
  • THE NEXT FINANCIAL IMPLOSION IS NOT GOING TO BE ABOUT THE BANKS!
    March 3, 2017
    THE NEXT FINANCIAL IMPLOSION IS NOT GOING TO BE ABOUT THE BANKS! US COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE The Global Real Estate market dwarfs all financial markets by any comparison. The Global Real Estate market being so large, it has always been stable and as such it is the favorite of institutions for long term investing - specifically Insurance companies,
  • YET ANOTHER WALL STREET “WITCH’S BREW”
    February 11, 2017
    WITCH'S BREW: Sentiment UP, Complacency UP - but Uncertainty Also UP (Not DOWN?) When did the distortion start occurring in the markets when increasing UNCERTAINTY can come with an increase in COMPLACENCY and SENTIMENT? The short answer is: When Wall Street and its media maven lap dogs began controlling the public narrative.  I place our newly minted Twitter
  • WHEN DID THE FED START BUYING EQUITIES? – INDICATIONS ARE WHEN “TAPER” ENDED!
    January 25, 2017
    WHEN DID THE FED START BUYING EQUITIES? - INDICATIONS ARE WHEN "TAPER" ENDED! We see the forensic "finger prints" all over the economic and financial data that the Federal Reserve through a proxy likely Citadel Capital (or the Fed's CBOE Volume Options Agreement) has highly likely been buying the US equity market since its QE 3
  • KEY FOCUS: CHINA POTENTIALLY THREATENS A NEAR TERM US TREASURY SHORT SQUEEZE!
    January 7, 2017
    Problems in China are looming on top of an already very tenuous and misunderstood situation in the US Financial Markets. Additionally, Federal Reserve Policy has made the situation even more combustible! As a result of a Trump Victory inspired bond market massacre there are now few places that a yield starved world can presently find better risk-adjusted yields
  • KEY FOCUS: A BROKEN BOND BOUNCE BECKONS!
    December 23, 2016
    A BROKEN BOND BOUNCE BECKONS! HISTORICAL CORRELATIONS GIVE US A CLUE TO WHAT MAY BE AHEAD! A FALLING GLOBAL MARKET CAP TREND CHANNEL The old adage that the "Trend is Your Friend" has proven to be the one that separates the winners from the losers. The key however is whether you recognize the right trend! We
  • KEY FOCUS: WATCH THE RUSSELL FOR THE NEAR TERM END OF THE TRUMP RALLY
    December 14, 2016
    KEY FOCUS: WATCH THE RUSSELL FOR THE  NEAR TERM END OF THE TRUMP RALLY END OF MEGAPHONE AND INVERSE HEAD & SHOULDERS NET SHORTS OF "SMART MONEY" NOW CONSIDER THIS RUSSELL 2000 MINI FUTURES: Largest Net Short Position Ever! HISTORIC 3-DECADE TRIPLE TOP YOU MAY ALSO WANT TO CONSIDER THIS WE ARE TESTING A 3-DECADE
  • IN DEPTH: THE SOON TO ERUPT EURO EXPERIMENT
    December 9, 2016
    THE SOON TO ERUPT EURO EXPERIMENT THE EURO EXPERIMENT It was always blatantly clear that an EU monetary union would inevitably require a political union to centralize decisions about tax and public spending. Without this occurring it was a misconceived and terrible blunder (that some of us argued it was when it was initially constructed) but
  • KEY FOCUS: DID THE “TRUMP TANTRUM” JUST TRIGGER THE NEXT US RECESSION?
    November 21, 2016
    KEY FOCUS: DID THE "TRUMP TANTRUM" JUST TRIGGER THE NEXT US RECESSION? TRUMP MAY HAVE "PRICKED" THE GLOBAL BOND BUBBLE Trump called during the campaign for a $1 trillion infrastructure package, $5 trillion in tax cuts, increases in military spending and the repeal ObamaCare, which could cost more than $350 billion over 10 years. At the
  • DID PRESIDENT-ELECT TRUMP JUST INADVERTENTLY KILL THE GOLDEN GOOSE?
    November 15, 2016
    DID PRESIDENT-ELECT TRUMP JUST INADVERTENTLY KILL THE GOLDEN GOOSE? President-Elect Trump may have just unwittingly sowed an equity market draw-down which will send even more protesters into the streets of America. Donald Trump's stated economic policies are clearly pro-growth and if he manages to implement his pro-business, anti-regulation agenda, in  the longer term they have the
  • WATCH THE EU BANKS AFTER US ELECTION GYRATIONS ARE OVER
    November 7, 2016
    WATCH THE EU BANKS AFTER US ELECTION GYRATIONS ARE OVER We may not know for a fact who will win the US election, but what we do know is that the Credit Cycle has turned. This will turn out to be more important in the near term, once the expected US Election market gyrations have

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