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IDEAS – Investment & Trading Ideas
- TNX CBOE 10yr Treasury Note Yield IDEA
April 30, 2018
Our previous update (Jan 21/2017) gave a couple of high probability possibilities to watch out for. Our first paragraph said: "An initial break of 2.3 offers potential opportunity for a drop to fill the first gap, with a another potential drop to the next blue s/r zone below". This is pretty much what occurred. Initially the - USD Idea Outcome
March 4, 2018
Back in October 2017 we offered an idea for the USD, indicating the potential for a little more up and then another significant drop. This aligned with our potential Elliott Wave count of wave 4 completing and another drop, wave 5, to go. Here is the chart given at the time: USD next paths to - MATASII: 10 UST YIELD ~2.85 June 2018
February 2, 2018
MATASII: 10 UST YIELD ~2.85 June - WARNING: SOMETHING IS BROKEN IN THE HIGH YIELD & CREDIT MARKETS!
November 10, 2017
WARNING: SOMETHING IS BROKEN IN THE HIGH YIELD & CREDIT MARKETS! WE HAVE THE BEGINNINGS OF A DECOUPLING BETWEEN EQUITY & CREDIT RISK CHARTS TO WATCH: JNK (BELOW) and HYG WHAT YOU NEED TO READ: Is The Junk Bond Bubble Bursting Before Your Very Eyes? 11-09-17 Heisenberg, The Chart That Everyone Is Talking About - IDEAS: HARVEY CAUSING “UNPRECEDENTED” DISRUPTIONS TO SUPPLIES OF “ESSENTIAL” CHEMICALS
September 1, 2017
IDEAS: HARVEY CAUSING "UNPRECEDENTED" DISRUPTIONS TO SUPPLIES OF "ESSENTIAL" CHEMICALS I just had breakfast with a friend who is the head of supply for a large hospital chain. He sees Harvey in a different light based on his experience with Katrina - and Harvey is an order of magnitude worse in his mind!!! Yous simply - EXPECT A FLIGHT TO SAFETY SCARE IN Q4 ( 10 y UST ~ 2.85) BEFORE HEADING LONG TERM < 1%
September 1, 2017
EXPECT A FLIGHT TO SAFETY SCARE IN Q4 ( 10 y UST ~ 2.85) BEFORE HEADING LONG TERM < 1% At MATASII we have been strong in OUR "UnderTheLens" and "LONGWave" videos that we see 10 Y UST rates below 1% long term. We have more recently felt (in our IDEA posts ) that a - CMI Cummins IDEA
August 28, 2017
CMI has recently broken through a long term weekly channel that had contained the market during its lift through 2016-17. This may be the warning or the start of a bigger move down or just a correction to the large lift since 2016. Significant supports are near by and we will be watching to see - MLM Martin Marietta Materials IDEA
August 28, 2017
The weekly chart on the left shows a potential double top for MLM. The latest drop has moved the market to the s/r of the previous pattern, where we can see on the daily chart (right) that it has just broken through. Watching to see if support is found here, or if it will continue - USCR U.S. Concrete IDEA
August 26, 2017
USCR has recently pulled back and and is approaching the weekly 34ma (left chart, pink ma). This offers potential opportunity for the market to bounce from the 34ma and lift to the UBB, or break through and drop to the LBB. Note that these BB's are roughly aligning with recent market highs and the lows - JCI Johnson Controls International IDEA
August 16, 2017
The weekly view of JCI shows the market has reached previous high levels (left edge of left chart), and may be putting in a potential double top (left chart, current). The lift from JCI sine 2003 has done so in a contracting wedge: a break of the pattern could offer opportunity. IF we do see - MGA Magna International Inc. IDEA
August 16, 2017
Watching for expected weakness in the auto sectors, the current technical set-up for MGA is below. A potential double top can be seen on the weekly chart (left), with the market then dropping off in to 2016. Since then a slightly contracting wedge consolidation has developed: breaking this structure offers potnetial opportunities. Solid orange - COL Outcomes & Performance +18.6%
August 13, 2017
Back in January we posted a few ideas in our Defense SII; below is the original post for COL and the current market (2017/08/13). A break out of the long term weekly channel (solid orange highlight) shows a possible gain of 18.6%. More could have been possible from a break of the riskier orange dashed - ORLY IDEA: Outcome & Performance
July 24, 2017
Below you can see the original post for ORLY's technical set-up on May 6th, 2017; and the current market as of July 24th, 2017. The significant technical break around the $227 level occurred; and a low of $170 (+25%) was reached. While we had identified the $227 level as one of significance, there were also - VC Visteon Corporation IDEA
July 19, 2017
Our weekly view shows VC in the middle of a long term channel; at the beginning of this year we can see the recent lift starting in earnest as it makes its final push off channel support. The daily chart (right) shows the current market lifting within a smaller blue channel and bouncing between - AXL American Axle & Manufacturing IDEA
July 19, 2017
Our long term weekly perspective (left chart) shows AXL in a potential contracting wedge pattern. Solid orange highlights the patterns support & resistance; breaking these offers potential opportunities for the next significant move from the market. Along with the patterns support & resistance, blue s/r zones can be seen to have held the market, both - LEA Lear Corporation IDEA
July 19, 2017
The weekly view for LEA (left chart) shows a large lifting expanding wedge, with the market now at the top resistance of the pattern. The daily chart on the right gives us a closer look at the recent consolidation pattern since the market has reached the weekly pattern resistance. Solid orange lines highlight significant technicals - FCAU Fiat Chrysler Automobiles IDEA
July 16, 2017
Our MACRO BIAS for the auto industry in general is negative - we don't see it holding up in the long run. When we take a look at FCAU's chart however, we can clearly see a positive trend still under way. The left hand weekly chart shows a long term expanding wedge, with the market - GM General Motors IDEA
July 8, 2017
After reaching a high of almost $42.00 at the end of 2013, GM has shown some volatility, falling off and retesting the $38-39 level several times (on the high end) while finding support around $27. Three blue s/r zones can be seen to make channels offering potnetial opportunities as the market bounces off or moves - HOG Harley-Davidson IDEA
July 8, 2017
The weekly view (left chart) shows HOG has fallen off from highs in 2014; a bounce from 2016 has lifted / retraced that market drop more than 61.8%. Recent resistance has been found and if the market continues to fall there is a possibility of significantly more drop to come. The long-term weekly chart shows - SII: FANGS – BEING “DE-FANGED” FOR A “QUADRUPLE WITCH” CONSOLIDATION
June 15, 2017
SII: FANGS - BEING "DE-FANGED" FOR A "QUADRUPLE WITCH" CONSOLIDATION As we moved towards the June 16th Quadruple Options Witch we have carefully followed our SII: FANGS. Between the Friday June 9th "Mini Flash Crash" and the subsequent 61.8% retracement through Wednesday June 14th we could see the possibilities of a clear ABC consolidation pattern - GOLD Technical Update and IDEA
May 28, 2017
Gold long term monthly view: The market sits at an interesting confluence of technicals, all significant, and how they break or hold could show us the next move. At the current market location we can see gold just coming up to a purple long term monthly target. Around this area we can see: (1) purple - ORLY O’Reilly Automotive IDEA
May 6, 2017
ORLY had a strong lift through 2015 that topped out in the summer of 2016. The first signs of weakness can be seen in the summer of 2016, where the market first broke the trend from the end of 2015. The subsequent bounce, lift to new highs, and then the fall off since Jun 2016, - HERTZ MAY NOT SURVIVE THE NEXT BUMP IN THE AUTO CYCLE!
April 19, 2017
HERTZ MAY NOT SURVIVE THE NEXT BUMP IN THE AUTO - AVIS & HERTZ “RISK” CARS ON A COLLISION COURSE
April 19, 2017
AVIS & HERTZ "RISK" CARS ON A COLLISION COURSE DEBT HOLDERS CAUGHT: Debt issued by Hertz Global Holdings Inc. and Avis Budget Group Inc., which had traded at or above par in recent years, tumbled to new lows earlier this month amid signs that used-vehicle prices are dropping twice as much as expected. RETURNS: That’s - THE ROAD AHEAD FOR FORD FULL OF POTHOLES!
April 18, 2017
THE ROAD AHEAD FOR FORD FULL OF POTHOLES Summary Auto Industry Car sales are breaking down as the Auto Cycle rolls over, Ford earnings Y-o-Y fell by 50% last quarter as they warned about 2017 and 2018, Nearly 8M cars to come back off lease over next 18 months, Sales Incentives at ~ $3750/Unit are - Outcomes & Performance: FANG & NOSH Watch List
April 11, 2017
Last spring we gave some potential technical entry considerations for the FANG & NOSH stocks. Below is the watch list given showing the Long & Short considerations, the current price as of this post, and the return that could have resulted. Note that all the markets are currently off their 52 week highs and even - GPI Group 1 Automotive IDEA
April 3, 2017
The larger pattern on the weekly chart shows a potential double top forming for GPI. The daily chart shows the most recent market movement coming off significant technicals and falling within a channel. Breaking from this channel (orange dashed highlight), up or down, would be a trigger consideration for a move to the next significant - ANF Abercrombie & Fitch OUTCOME & PERFORMANCE
March 21, 2017
In May 2016 we posted ANF with some potential technical opportunities to consider. The left hand chart is the daily at that time; the right hand chart shows the current market as of March 21st, 2017. "X" marks the same location on both charts to help with orientation. From X we see a wiggle - FOMC MEETING: NAILED THE BOND YIELD MOVEMENT!
March 15, 2017
FOMC MEETING: NAILED THE BOND YIELD MOVEMENT! Everything rose in reaction to the interest rate news except the U.S. Dollar. The reaction we saw in the markets to this news may be like a Chess player thinking four moves ahead. Bonds rose sharply on the news, in other words, long-term interest rates fell. If - JCP IDEA OUTCOME, HPTZ Method & Market Roadmap
March 14, 2017
Our original post and ideas can be seen on the left hand chart (JCP daily), posted May 11th, 2016. The right hand chart is the current daily JCP (March 14th, 2016). The long term macro bias for this has been negative, and overall the market is now down 25% ($8 - $6). It could have
