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  • GLOBAL TRADE HIT BY RARE DECLINE AS “SUPPLY CHAINS SEIZE UP”
    September 21, 2018
    GLOBAL TRADE HIT BY RARE DECLINE AS "SUPPLY CHAINS SEIZE UP" -- SOURCE: 09-08-18 - "Global Trade Hit By Rare Decline As "Supply Chains Seize Up" -- With the Trump administration about to slap tariffs of up to 25% on an additional $200 billion in Chinese goods, new data suggests that the global
  • WALLSTREETforMAINSTREET INTERVIEW OF GORDON T LONG: A REVIEW OF THE GLOBAL MACRO
    September 21, 2018
  • INVESTORS TO BE FOCUSED ON THIS “DOT” DURING THE SEPTEMBER 26th FOMC ANNOUNCEMENT
    September 20, 2018
    INVESTORS TO BE FOCUSED ON THIS "DOT" DURING THE SEPTEMBER 26th FOMC ANNOUNCEMENT -- SOURCE: 09-19-18 - "All Eyes Will Be On This Dot During Next Week's FOMC Meeting" -- With a 25bps rate hike during next Wednesday's FOMC meeting virtually assured, trader attentions will be focused on something
  • INVESTORS ARE NOW BEARISH GLOBAL GROWTH AT THE HIGHEST LEVEL SINCE 2011
    September 18, 2018
    INVESTORS ARE NOW BEARISH GLOBAL GROWTH AT THE HIGHEST LEVEL SINCE 2011 --SOURCE: 09-18-18 - "Investors Are Most Bearish Global Growth Since 2011 As They Go "All-In" US Decoupling" -- Even as the 244 respondents to the latest BofA Fund Manager Survey (who manage $724BN in AUM) plowed into US
  • BUYING CONDITIONS FOR HOUSES & VEHICLES HAVE ROLLED OVER WITH RISING 10 YR UST RATES
    September 18, 2018
    BUYING CONDITIONS FOR HOUSES & VEHICLES HAVE ROLLED OVER WITH RISING 10 YR UST
  • THE NEXT RECESSION: 3 CRITICAL WARNING SIGNS
    September 16, 2018
    THE NEXT RECESSION: 3 CRITICAL WARNING SIGNS -- SOURCE: 09-11-18 CME Group, Bluford Putnam & Erik Norland - "The Next Recession: 3 Critical Warning Signs" -- The next recession: What are the warning signs? What might it look like? How will markets react? The nearly decade-long U.S. economic
  • A GROWTH RECESSION IS NOW THE ONLY WAY THE FED CAN HOPE TO FIGHT POTENTIAL ACCELERATING INFLATION
    September 15, 2018
    A GROWTH RECESSION IS NOW THE ONLY WAY THE FED CAN HOPE TO FIGHT POTENTIAL ACCELERATING INFLATION Current U.S. bond yields are not reflecting deteriorating price stability. A strongly growing U.S. economy and a tame inflation are now beyond reach. The pace of Fed’s monetary tightening is
  • AS NEW DEALS ARE CANCELLED EMERGING MARKETS ARE INCREASINGLY LOCKED OUR FROM ACCESS TO CAPITAL
    September 14, 2018
    AS NEW DEALS ARE CANCELLED EMERGING MARKETS ARE INCREASINGLY LOCKED OUR FROM ACCESS TO CAPITAL -- SOURCE: 09-10-18 - ""New Deals Are Being Canceled": Emerging Markets Increasingly Locked Out From Access To Capital"-- Following the recent rout in emerging markets, the biggest threat that has emerged
  • ANALYST WHO PREDICTED FEBRUARY CORRECTION WARNS TWO MORE RATE HIKES WILL TRIGGER THE BEAR
    September 13, 2018
    ANALYST WHO PREDICTED FEBRUARY CORRECTION WARNS TWO MORE RATE HIKES WILL TRIGGER THE BEAR -- SOURCE: 09-06-18 - "Analyst Who Predicted February Correction Warns Two More Rate Hikes Will Trigger Bear Market" -- Stifel's Barry Bannister - head of the firm's institutional equity strategy - was one of
  • RANKING THE MOST VULNERABLE EMERGING MARKET CURRENCIES
    September 13, 2018
    RANKING THE MOST VULNERABLE EMERGING MARKET CURRENCIES -- SOURCE: 09-12-18 - ""Who's Naked?": Ranking The Most Vulnerable Emerging Market Currencies" -- Warren Buffett's famous saying has never been more applicable than at a time such as now, when the tide - of cheap dollar funding - is finally
  • ITS AN EMERGING MARKETS RACE TO THE TOP!
    September 11, 2018
    ITS AN EMERGING MARKETS RACE TO THE TOP! -- EXCERPTED FROM 09-11-18 - ""The Race To The Top": How The Fed Unleashed A Global Liquidity Crisis" -- BofA's Barnaby Martin has introduced a new concept to explain the growing routs across global markets as dollar become increasingly more scarce: "race to
  • EMERGING MARKET TURMOIL MIRRORS CENTRAL BANK DECELERATION IN BALANCE SHEET GROWTH
    September 11, 2018
    EMERGING MARKET TURMOIL MIRRORS CENTRAL BANK DECELERATION IN BALANCE SHEET GROWTH -- EXCERPTED FROM 09-11-18 - ""The Race To The Top": How The Fed Unleashed A Global Liquidity Crisis" -- BofA's Barnaby Martin writes that much more pain is in store as the Fed’s withdrawal of the punch bowl looks
  • EU SENTIMENT SUFFERING FROM ONGOING EM VOLATILITY
    September 11, 2018
    EU SENTIMENT SUFFERING FROM ONGOING EM VOLATILITY -- EXCERPTED FROM 09-11-18 - ""The Race To The Top": How The Fed Unleashed A Global Liquidity Crisis" -- Just as Japan was the catalyst for the 1998 Asian crisis, so Europe will be the spark that makes the current EM turmoil into a global crisis,
  • EMERGING MARKETS CONTAGION: THE “SORRY SIX”
    September 8, 2018
    EMERGING MARKETS CONTAGION: THE "SORRY
  • WATCHING EURO STOCKS FOR EM CONTAGION FALLOUT
    September 6, 2018
    WATCHING EURO STOCKS FOR EM CONTAGION FALLOUT Several key equity trend-line tests are underway across the European region. -- SOURCE: 09-06-18 Dana Lyons - "Analyzing The Latest Euro Trends" -- The past few editions of our #TrendlineWednesday feature on Twitter have not exactly been the most
  • CAPEX & TAXES: WHAT THE CORPORATE SECTOR IS SAYING ABOUT THE ECONOMY
    September 5, 2018
    CAPEX & TAXES: WHAT THE CORPORATE SECTOR IS SAYING ABOUT THE ECONOMY -- SOURCE: Alhambra Investments, Jeffrey Snider - "Capex and Taxes; What The Corporate Sector Is Saying About the Economy"-- Private US businesses are not building new facilities, or renovating old ones, at a rate that
  • GLOBAL TRADE CONTINUES TO WORSEN – LIKELY EARNINGS RECESSION BY SUMMER 2019
    August 31, 2018
    GLOBAL TRADE CONTINUES TO WORSEN - LIKELY EARNINGS RECESSION BY SUMMER 2019 -- SOURCE: 08-29-18 Palisade Research - "These 4 Charts Show How World Trade Has Collapsed In Just One Year" -- Lately, nothing seems able to shake Wall Street’s bullish attitude. Investors and the mainstream continue
  • EMERGING MARKETS AT THE POINT OF GOING INTO FREE FALL!
    August 29, 2018
    EMERGING MARKETS AT THE POINT OF GOING INTO FREE FALL! We laid this out in our recent September video edition of UnderTheLens - Turkey, EM & The Coming EU Banking Crisis II - Part I. We can visualize the emerging market currency crisis in one chart — it is clearly a global problem. Putting
  • ARGENTINA CURRENCY COLLAPSES & DEFAULT RISK SURGES AS INVESTORS FINALLY LOSE FAITH!
    August 29, 2018
    ARGENTINA CURRENCY COLLAPSES & DEFAULT RISK SURGES AS INVESTORS FINALLY LOSE FAITH! -- SOURCE: 08-29-18 - "Argentina Default Risk Surges, Currency Collapses As Investors Finally Lose Faith" -- Mauricio Macri’s presidency was meant to lead Argentina out of a dismal period of debt defaults,
  • BLOOMBERG: TRUMP’S MEXICO DEAL LOOKS LIKE A LEMON
    August 29, 2018
    BLOOMBERG: TRUMP'S MEXICO DEAL LOOKS LIKE A LEMON Peer under the hood, and these auto rules pack less punch. -- SOURCE: 08-28-18 Bloomberg - "Trump’s Mexico Trade Deal Looks Like a Lemon" -- A car can look like a fantastic bargain on the lot, only to reveal itself as a lemon when you drive it
  • FED IS PLAYING A SHIFTING SENTIMENT “SETUP GAME” WITH MARKETS
    August 28, 2018
    FED IS PLAYING A SHIFTING SENTIMENT "SETUP GAME" WITH MARKETS -- SOURCE: 08-28-18 Authored by Charlie McElligott, head of cross-asset strategy at Nomura - "Nomura: The Market Is Sniffing Out The Possibility Of A 2019 Rate Hike Pause From The Fed" -- U.S. Equities are showing an increasingly
  • NOMURA: RATE HIKE PAUSE FROM THE FED IN EARLY 2019
    August 28, 2018
    NOMURA: RATE HIKE PAUSE FROM THE FED IN EARLY 2019 -- SOURCE: 08-28-18 Authored by Charlie McElligott, head of cross-asset strategy at Nomura - "Nomura: The Market Is Sniffing Out The Possibility Of A 2019 Rate Hike Pause From The Fed" -- USD stuck “sideways to lower”—and that is a
  • GERMANY CONSIDERING TURKISH BAILOUT TO PREVENT “FULL-BLOWN ECONOMIC CRISIS”
    August 28, 2018
    GERMANY CONSIDERING TURKISH BAILOUT TO PREVENT "FULL-BLOWN ECONOMIC CRISIS" -- SOURCE: 08-28-18 - "Germany Considering Bailout For Turkey To Prevent "Full-Blown Economic Crisis"" -- Confirming speculation that Turkey's recent pivot toward Europe in response to the diplomatic spat with Trump may
  • ASIA TIMES: “US-TURKISH ALLIANCE REACHES THE POINT OF NO RETURN”
    August 28, 2018
    ASIA TIMES: "US-TURKISH ALLIANCE REACHES THE POINT OF NO RETURN" The sense of indignation among Turks should not be underestimated, which makes this an exceptional rupture -- SOURCE: 08-15-18 Asia Times -  "US-Turkish alliance reaches the point of no return" -- The Turkish lira fell 22% on
  • BRAZILIAN REAL BREAKS CRITICAL 4.0 LEVEL AS IT FALLS TO 4.104
    August 27, 2018
    BRAZILIAN REAL BREAKS CRITICAL 4.0 LEVEL AS IT FALLS TO 4.104 -- SOURCE: 08-23-18 - "Brazilian Real Plunges As Jailed Lula's Presidential Poll Lead Increases" -- The political confusion and chaos around the globe grows with each passing day, and one day after Australia suffered a leadership
  • TURKEY’S LIRA CRISIS WAS WRITTEN IN ISTANBUL’S SKYLINE
    August 27, 2018
    TURKEY'S LIRA CRISIS WAS WRITTEN IN ISTANBUL'S SKYLINE Those observing Istanbul’s construction boom will not have been surprised by last week’s currency collapse – it’s all based on debt -- SOURCE: 08-23-18 The Guardian - "How Turkey’s lira crisis was written in Istanbul's skyline" -- The
  • EU LOOKING TO SIDE STEP “SWIFT ” & CONTINUOUS GLOBAL US SANCTIONS WITH NEW PAYMENTS SYSTEM
    August 27, 2018
    EU LOOKING TO SIDE STEP "SWIFT " & CONTINUOUS GLOBAL US SANCTIONS WITH NEW PAYMENTS SYSTEM Europe Is Working On Alternative To SWIFT For "Financial Independence" From The US -- SOURCE: 08-27-18 - "Europe Is Working On Alternative To SWIFT For "Financial Independence" From The US" -- In
  • THE ITALIAN “DOOM LOOP” – WILL ITALY REIGNITE THE EUROPEAN SOVEREIGN DEBT CRISIS?
    August 24, 2018
    THE ITALIAN "DOOM LOOP" - WILL ITALY REIGNITE THE EUROPEAN SOVEREIGN DEBT CRISIS? -- SOURCE: 08-24-18 - "The "Doom Loop" Exodus: Foreigners Liquidate Record Amounts Of Italian Bonds" -- One month ago, we reported that in the aftermath of Italy's political fireworks in May, which saw a record spike
  • ITALIAN BANKS ARE A BIGGER RISK THAN TURKEY
    August 22, 2018
    ITALIAN BANKS ARE A BIGGER RISK THAN TURKEY Analysts warn Italy will be a bigger shock to Europe than anything Turkey has to offer, as potential crises go. Italy’s problems have seemingly never gone away. With a viscous cycle of rising trade protectionism and inflation slowing economic growth, a
  • MERKEL WARNS: “WE (EU) CAN’T RELY ON THE SUPERPOWER OF THE US!”
    August 22, 2018
    MERKEL WARNS: "WE CAN' RELY ON THE SUPERPOWER OF THE US!" -- SOURCE: 07-24-18 - "Europe Can't Rely On The US To Maintain World Order, Merkel Warns" -- Having been called a "foe" by President Trump last week, German Chancellor Angela Merkel confirmed that she was right to say a year ago that