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GORDON T LONG Market Research & Analytics: MACRO

Through extensive research, and his process of Abstraction  & Synthesis, Gordon delivers frank perspectives on global macro-economics and insightful conclusions not found in mainstream commentaries.

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MACRO ANALYTICS

MACRO

  • FED CHAIRMAN POWELL PREPARES MARKETS FOR MONETARY EASING & FURTHER US$ DEBASEMENT
    June 20, 2019
    FED CHAIRMAN POWELL PREPARES MARKETS FOR MONETARY EASING & FURTHER US$ DEBASEMENT As fully expected Fed Chairman Jerome Powell did not disappoint in signalling FOMC Rate cuts are ahead. Though the dollar did not appear to react, that is because it had weakened going into the much anticipated
  • DRAGHI PREPARES MARKETS FOR MONETARY EASING & FURTHER EURO DEBASEMENT
    June 18, 2019
    DRAGHI PREPARES MARKETS FOR MONETARY EASING & FURTHER EURO DEBASEMENT   Draghi outlined during the ECB's annual conference in Sintra, Portugal that: The current EU outlook "remains tilted to the downside," More stimulus will be needed if the outlook doesn’t improve. More interest-rate
  • IS UK’S “DEEP STATE” PLOTTING TO THWART BREXIT?
    May 24, 2019
    IS UK'S "DEEP STATE" PLOTTING TO THWART BREXIT? The Brexit issue is one of the rich against the poor. The working class voted for Brexit. Shockingly, the Labor Party is now a weapon of the billionaires against the workers. The wealthy adore the EU because mass migration allows them to pay poverty
  • TRADE WAR REALITY: A LONG TERM BIFURCATED GLOBAL “COLD WAR” ECONOMY
    May 24, 2019
    TRADE WAR REALITY: A LONG TERM BIFURCATED GLOBAL "COLD WAR" ECONOMY The new long-term reality is an increasingly and deliberately bifurcated global economy! The US and its allies VERSUS China. If it sounds familiar – it should in terms of 1945-89. The West won the last Cold War on the same basis
  • BREXIT PARTY IS DESTROYING THE UK POLITICAL ESTABLISHMENT
    May 23, 2019
    BREXIT PARTY IS DESTROYING THE UK POLITICAL ESTABLISHMENT "People feel completely betrayed, they feel abandoned, they feel even hated and despised by the political class and also by the media" This is clear statement of the situation in the UK before the upcoming EU elections.  Here is more detail
  • EUROPEAN ELECTION WILL AVOID THE ENSLAVING ISSUE OF DEBT
    May 23, 2019
    EUROPEAN ELECTION WILL AVOID THE ENSLAVING ISSUE OF DEBT Off-Guardian.org published the following article which we have put into a "net" bullet form. There message is simple: Across the EU, inequality is rising, corporations rule, and oligarchs impose their will, The European Parliament has no
  • WORLD DOLLAR LIQUIDITY DECLINING AT RECORD RATE
    May 23, 2019
    WORLD DOLLAR LIQUIDITY IS FALLING Here is a summary of Dr Lacy Hunt's work on the cause of the record rate of decline in World Liquidity.   The Second Theorem: Monetary deceleration eventually lead to lower, not higher, interest rates as originally theorized by Milton Friedman. When the Fed
  • ALARMINGLY, DEMOGRAPHICS SHOWS USA TO POTENTIALLY BE THE “LEAST UGLY” OVER NEXT 5-15 YEARS
    May 22, 2019
    ALARMINGLY, DEMOGRAPHICS SHOWS USA TO POTENTIALLY BE THE "LEAST UGLY" OVER NEXT 5-15 YEARS FACT: World Population Growth is declining in most developed countries: FACT: Population Growth: US and Japan: Notice the correlation between population growth declining and debt increasing. This suggests
  • EMERGING MARKETS ABOUT TO BREAK KEY 3 YEAR TECHNICAL SUPPORT
    May 22, 2019
    EMERGING MARKETS ABOUT TO BREAK KEY 3 YEAR TECHNICAL SUPPORT Are Emerging Markets about to “Submerge” and head a good deal lower? What they do at (3) will go a long way in answering this question! Emerging Markets ETF (EEM) has been lagging the broad market for the past 15-months. They hit
  • GDP GENERATING CAPACITY OF GLOBAL DEBT IS DIMINISHING RAPIDLY
    May 21, 2019
    GDP GENERATING CAPACITY OF GLOBAL DEBT IS DIMINISHING RAPIDLY Here is a summary of Dr Lacy Hunt's work on the Diminishing Return of the GDP Generating Capacity of Global Debt.   The Production Function is dependent upon technology and the three factors of production: Land, Labor and Capital.
  • GOVERNMENT SPENDING & SLOWING SAVINGS ARE STRANGLING CAPITALISM
    May 20, 2019
    GOVERNMENT SPENDING & SLOWING SAVINGS ARE STRANGLING CAPITALISM This is one of those charts that gets to the root problem! Bottom line: We simply have an insufficiency of savings and there is no political will to change it! EXPLANATION: The green line shows the national savings rate. It is
  • ARE TURKEY’S “ZOMBIE” CORPORATIONS THE EU BANKING SYSTEM’S TIPPING POINT?
    May 19, 2019
    ARE TURKEY'S "ZOMBIE" CORPORATIONS THE EU BANKING SYSTEM'S TIPPING POINT? The 2011-2012 EU Banking Crisis which started in the peripheral nations ("PIGS" - Portugal, Ireland, Greece & Spain) was contained there. Today we have serious problems in the EU closer to the core, in Italy. Even
  • HUAWEI MAY HAVE PUSHED US-CHINA NEGOTIATIONS INTO A TRADE WAR
    May 18, 2019
    HUAWEI MAY HAVE PUSHED US-CHINA NEGOTIATIONS INTO A TRADE WAR China is a very dangerous adversary, and a protracted trade war would be truly disastrous for the entire global economy. A former Macro Analytics guest writes: Trump essentially took a sledgehammer to Chinese telecommunications giant
  • OMINOUS SIGNAL HINTS AT COMING EMERGING MARKET TURMOIL
    May 18, 2019
    OMINOUS SIGNAL HINTS AT COMING EMERGING MARKET TURMOIL Keep an eye on investor flows in "less loved" assets such as EM bonds, which are now the best canary in the equity market coalmine Persistent political uncertainty has shackled directional traders and kept some corporates from investing
  • TRADE WAR IS KILLING EMERGING MARKETS – MORE DAMAGE EXPECTED TO COME
    May 17, 2019
    TRADE WAR IS KILLING EMERGING MARKETS - MORE DAMAGE EXPECTED TO COME Another week, another leg of the emerging-market rout. It has been a steady decline which has recently began to re-accelerate. Bloomberg analysts have been reporting the following: An MSCI gauge of developing-nation stocks slipped
  • DE-DOLLARIZATION: CHINA DUMPS US TREASURIES AT FASTEST PAST IN 2 YEARS IN MARCH
    May 16, 2019
    DE-DOLLARIZATION: CHINA DUMPS US TREASURIES AT FASTEST PAST IN 2 YEARS IN MARCH China sold $20.5B in US Treasuries in March. Other than a minor positive in February 2019, China has sold US Treasuries EVERY months since September 2018, China is the largest foreign owner of US Treasuries at $1.12T,
  • IMF’S DIRECTION OF TRADE CHART A REALITY ‘WAKE-UP CALL’
    May 16, 2019
    IMF'S DIRECTION OF TRADE CHART A REALITY 'WAKE-UP CALL' “The world economy has been in a significant slowdown for a period. People just have to wake up and look at the trade data.’’ - James Bevan, chief investment officer at CCLA Investment Management. But the best way to visualize just how
  • DE-DOLLARIZATION: FOREIGN CENTRAL BANKS UNRELENTING NET SELLERS OF US TREASURIES
    May 15, 2019
    DE-DOLLARIZATION: FOREIGN CENTRAL BANKS UNRELENTING NET SELLERS OF US TREASURIES The US Treasury reports that overall, U.S. total cross-border investment was an $8.1 billion outflow in March: SUMMARY YOU NEED TO UNDERSTAND Foreign NET selling of Treasuries at $12.5b Foreign NET selling of equities
  • DE-DOLLARIZATION: CANADA SHOCKINGLY DUMPS $12.5B IN US TREASURIES?
    May 14, 2019
    DE-DOLLARIZATION: CANADA SHOCKINGLY DUMPS $12.5B IN US TREASURIES? The biggest seller of Treasuries in March was shockingly Canada! Canada dumped $12.5 billion, the biggest drop since July 2011.     [SITE INDEX -- TIPPING POINTS - DE-DOLLARIZATION] A PUBLIC SOURCED ARTICLE FOR MATASII
  • STALEMATE: CHINA SETS THREE ‘NON-NEGOTIABLE’ DEMANDS
    May 13, 2019
    STALEMATE: CHINA SETS THREE 'NON-NEGOTIABLE' DEMANDS It now looks like the trade war talks were in reality "constructive". Quite the contrary in fact, as Mish Shedlock recently recapped: Trump demands China put commitments into law. China replied that "no one should expect China to swallow bitter
  • CHINA-US TRADE FRACTURE: POTENTIAL CONSEQUENCES
    May 12, 2019
    CHINA-US TRADE FRACTURE: POTENTIAL CONSEQUENCES The CMEGroup.com in assessing the recent status of the trade negotiations with China has concluded there are consequences for the US, China and the World markets: An escalation in the US-China trade dispute could have profound consequences for:
  • CHINA-US TRADE FRACTURE: 3 POTENTIAL TRADE WAR SCENARIOS
    May 11, 2019
    CHINA-US TRADE FRACTURE: 3 POTENTIAL TRADE WAR SCENARIOS Below is an analysis on what BoA sees the three potential trade war scenarios to be now that negotiations have taken a new twist and significant new US tariffs on Chinese products are being implemented;   ...  now that higher tariffs
  • A LITTLE UNDERSTOOD ELEMENT OF FUNDAMENTAL LATE CYCLE INVESTING
    May 5, 2019
    A LITTLE UNDERSTOOD ELEMENT OF FUNDAMENTAL LATE CYCLE INVESTING  We do a lot of Cycle work at MATASII.com as it is a critical element in developing our Strategic Investment Insights (SII) & Watch Lists. What few fully appreciate and is critical to cycle timing is: Contrary to popular belief, a
  • RESTAURANT CHAINS FEELING CHINESE DRIVEN MEAT PRICE INFLATION
    May 3, 2019
    RESTAURANT CHAINS FEELING CHINESE DRIVEN MEAT PRICE INFLATION Bloomberg reports: Meat costs are finally going up, and that’s weighing on a dining industry that’s already reeling from rising minimum wages. McDONALDS: McDonald’s Corp. warned investors Tuesday its 2019 commodity costs in the
  • A ‘GLOBALLY SYNCHRONIZED DOWNTURN’ THE CBs WILL FAIL TO STOP
    April 29, 2019
    A 'GLOBALLY SYNCHRONIZED DOWNTURN' THE CENTRAL BANKERS WILL FAIL TO STOP Since the GFC the Global Real GDP of Advanced Economies has consistently not achieved the expectations of a "Synchronized Global Recovery".  Instead we continue to fall short without accepting the realization that the Global
  • JPM DRAMATICALLY REVERSES THINKING – NOW ALL IN ON BLOCKCHAIN?
    April 26, 2019
    JPM DRAMATICALLY REVERSES THINKING - NOW ALL IN ON BLOCKCHAIN? Read "IMF, WORLD BANK & BIS DETAIL ROADMAP FOR CENTRAL BANKS" to better understand the article below on possibly why JPM is so aggressively shifting. It has been nearly 18 months since JP Morgan CEO Jamie Dimon denounced bitcoin as
  • IMF, WORLD BANK & BIS DETAIL ROADMAP FOR CENTRAL BANKS
    April 25, 2019
    IMF, WORLD BANK & BIS DETAIL ROADMAP FOR CENTRAL BANKS During the Spring Meetings in Washington DC, the IMF and World Bank held their annual Development Committee conference which looked at the economic outlook and potential risks for the global economy. This along with recent reports from the
  • SOUTH KOREAN ECONOMY: THE GLOBAL TRADE REVENUE REALITY
    April 25, 2019
    SOUTH KOREAN ECONOMY: THE GLOBAL TRADE REVENUE REALITY Korean Exports are now Down 8.2% One of the most-followed bellwethers for global growth just flashed another death-knell warning. Economy Unexpectedly Plunges Most In A Decade, South Korea’s gross domestic product unexpectedly shrank in
  • CHINA’S MANIPULATED DATA WILL NOT SAVE THE MACRO OUTLOOK
    April 22, 2019
    CHINA'S MANIPULATED DATA WILL NOT SAVE THE MACRO OUTLOOK Ambrose Evans-Pritchard wrote in the UK telegraph an article entitled "Hold the champagne, China is not recovering and cannot rescue the West again" I have extracted IMHO the salient points which fundamentally points out the global impact of
  • THE EUROZONE SLOWDOWN IS MORE PROBLEMATIC THAN THE GLOBAL ONE
    April 20, 2019
    THE EUROZONE SLOWDOWN IS MORE PROBLEMATIC THAN THE GLOBAL ONE The problem of the Eurozone is threefold: Demographic, High state- and fiscal-interventionism, and Lack of technological leadership. If we add the political risk of some governments who want to penalize high productivity sectors while