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  • WORRYING NUMBERS IN EMERGING MARKETS
    May 19, 2018
    WORRYING NUMBERS IN EMERGING MARKETS -- SOURCE: 05-17-18 Bloomberg - "Worse Than 2008? Here's What the Emerging Market Numbers Show" --  Harvard’s Carmen Reinhart gives a downbeat assessment  Exposures and vulnerabilities vary from economy to economy Harvard economist Carmen Reinhart turned heads this week with her comments on emerging markets, saying they’re in worse shape now than
  • HARVARD’S RENOWNED CARMEN REINHART SAYS EM IN TOUGHER SPOT THAN DURING GFC
    May 17, 2018
    HARVARD'S RENOWNED CARMEN REINHART SAYS EM IN TOUGHER SPOT THAN DURING GFC -- SOURCE: 05-16-18 Bloomberg - "Harvard’s Reinhart Says Emerging Markets Are in Tougher Spot Than During ‘08 Crisis" -- While money managers from Goldman Sachs Group Inc. to UBS Wealth Management still tout investing opportunities in emerging markets, the asset class has one
  • FITCH SAYS EMERGING MARKETS $19T OF DEBT “VULNERABLE”!
    May 17, 2018
    FITCH SAYS EMERGING MARKETS $19T OF DEBT "VULNERABLE"! -- SOURCE: 05-17-18 Bloomberg - "Fitch Says EM Is Vulnerable as Debt Balloons to $19 Trillion" -- Sees Fed raising rates no less than six times by end ’19  Issuer refinancing risk may arise if EM appetite reverses Debt levels that quadrupled in a decade have made
  • BELGIUM: FIRST ISLAMIC STATE IN EUROPE?
    April 28, 2018
    BELGIUM: FIRST ISLAMIC STATE IN EUROPE? -- SOURCE: 04-22-18 Gatestone Institute - Giulio Meotti - "Belgium: First Islamic State in Europe" -- Translations of this item: The leaders of Belgium's ISLAM Party apparently want to turn Belgium into an Islamic State. They call it "Islamist democracy" and have set a target date: 2030. "The program
  • GERMANY: THE MIGRANT CRISIS DELUSION
    April 28, 2018
    GERMANY: THE MIGRANT CRISIS DELUSION -- SOURCE: 04-24-18 Gatestone Institute - Vijeta Uniyal - "Germany: Migrant Crisis Delusions" -- A report commissioned by the German government found that newly-arrived asylum seekers were behind more than 90% percent of the increase in violent crimes in the state of Lower Saxony. As of December 2017, an estimated 600,000 able-bodied asylum
  • EMERGING MARKETS HAVE HAD A GOOD RUN – THINGS MAY NOW GET BUMPIER
    April 25, 2018
    EMERGING MARKETS HAVE HAD A GOOD RUN - THINGS MAY NOW GET BUMPIER -- SOURCE: 04-16-18 Bloomberg -"Emerging Markets Have Had a Good Run. Things May Get Bumpier" -- Trade spats, China slowdown, QT launch, U.S. yields pose risks Some investors are getting more selective in bonds, currencies Cranes stand at a construction site in the
  • RUSSIA BUYS 300K OZ OF GOLD IN MARCH – NEARS 2K TONS IN RESERVE
    April 25, 2018
    RUSSIA BUYS 300K OZ OF GOLD IN MARCH - NEARS 2K TONS IN RESERVE -- SOURCE: 04-24-18 GoldCore via ZH - "Russia Buys 300,000 Ounces Of Gold In March - Nears 2,000 Tons In Reserves" -- --FURTHER REFERENCE: 03-20-18 ZeroHedge -"Russia Is Hoarding Gold At The Fastest Pace In 12 Years" -- Russia buys 300,000
  • MERKEL’S WEAKENED COALITION LIKELY TO RESTRICT HER PREVIOUSLY DOMINANT EU POLICY ROLE
    April 24, 2018
    MERKEL'S WEAKENED COALITION LIKELY TO RESTRICT HER PREVIOUSLY DOMINANT EU POLICY ROLE -- SOURCE: 03-04-18 ZeroHedge - "Crisis Averted: Merkel Set For 4th Term After SPD Backs Grand Coalition" -- One of this weekend's two major geopolitical unknowns was just resolved in favor of more continuity, and another 4 years of Angela Merkel. On Sunday
  • SILVIO BERLUSCONI BACKS LEADER OF EUROSKEPTIC PARTY TO FORM ITALY’S NEXT GOVERNMENT
    April 24, 2018
    SILVIO BERLUSCONI BACKS LEADER OF EUROSKEPTIC PARTY TO FORM ITALY'S NEXT GOVERNMENT -- SOURCE: 03-08-18 ZeroHedge - "Silvio Berlusconi Backs Leader Of Euroskeptic Party To Form Italy's Next Government" -- In what's probably a nightmare scenario for the millions of Italians who supported left or center-left candidates, Forza Italia leader and former four-time prime minister Silvio
  • MERKEL CAUGHT IN ENERGY CONUNDRUM OVER GERMANY’S FUTURE
    April 24, 2018
    MERKEL CAUGHT IN ENERGY CONUNDRUM OVER GERMANY'S FUTURE President, Donald Trump, will meet with the two main European leaders this week with the goal of pushing the President off his position to end the Iran Nuclear Deal, or JCPOA. But it is the bigger issues of energy security that will be the real focus. -- ABSTRACTED
  • IN SHOCKING INTERVIEW MACRON ADMITS FRANCE WOULD VOTE TO LEAVE EU IF REFERENDUM HELD
    April 24, 2018
    IN SHOCKING INTERVIEW MACRON ADMITS FRANCE WOULD VOTE TO LEAVE EU IF REFERENDUM HELD -- SOURCE: 01-02-18 ZeroHedge -  "In Shocking Interview, Macron Admits France Would Vote To Leave EU If Referendum Held" -- When Marine Le Pen lost last year's French presidential election to Emmanuel Macron in what appeared to be a landslide, the
  • THE EURO AREA’S DEEPENING POLITICAL DIVIDE
    April 24, 2018
    THE EURO AREA'S DEEPENING POLITICAL DIVIDE -- SOURCE: 03-21-18 Ashoka Mody - "The euro area’s deepening political divide" -- Two European elections – in Germany on 24 September 2017 and Italy on 4 March 2018 – warn that the peoples of Europe are drifting apart. Much of the recent deepening of these divisions can be
  • SCANDALS WEAKEN JAPAN’S PM SHINZO ABE AS POLLS AT LEVELS THAT LED TO FORMER PM’S RESIGNING
    April 24, 2018
    SCANDALS WEAKEN JAPAN'S PM SHINZO ABE AS POLLS AT LEVELS THAT LED TO FORMER PM'S RESIGNING Resilient prime minister faces protests, sinking poll numbers Lack of obvious heir may prompt ruling party to wait it out -- SOURCE: 04-16-18 Bloomberg - "Japan Wonders If Abe Can Bounce Back Again After Scandals Pile Up" -- Japanese
  • JAPAN IS SO BROKE ITS PRISONS ARE FULL OF NEW 80+ YEAR OLD FELONS!
    April 24, 2018
    JAPAN IS SO BROKE ITS PRISONS ARE FULL OF NEW 80+ YEAR OLD FELONS!   -- EXCERPTED FROM 04-22-18  SovereignMan.com - Simon Black - "Japan Is So Broke That Its Prisons Are Full Of 80+ Year Old 'Felons'" -- ‘Mrs. F.’ was 84 years old the first time she ever went to prison. Her crime?
  • JAPAN’S SELLING OF US TREASURY’s REDUCES ITS HOLDINGS TO LOWEST LEVELS SINCE 2012
    April 24, 2018
    JAPAN'S SELLING OF US TREASURY's REDUCES ITS HOLDINGS TO LOWEST LEVELS SINCE 2012 The second largest foreign US creditor, Japan has been liquidating in recent months. In the latest TICS report Japan sold $22.6 billion in TSYs in December, bringing its total to $1,061.5BN, the lowest total since the start of 2012. This trend has
  • BOJ DROPS MONETARY BOMB – “PLAN TO CONTINUE VERY STRONG ACCOMMODATIVE MONETARY POLICY FOR SOME TIME”
    April 24, 2018
    BOJ DROPS MONETARY BOMB - "PLAN TO CONTINUE VERY STRONG ACCOMMODATIVE MONETARY POLICY FOR SOME TIME"  -- EXTRACTED: 04-23-18 MishTalk - "Japan Expects To Hit 2% Inflation In 5 Years, Aggressive Easing Will Continue" -- The BOJ thinks Japan may hit its 2% inflation target in 5 years. Kuroda says risks are to the downside. It
  • ECB SEEN DELAYING QE EXIT DECISION UNTIL JULY OR AUGUST MEETINGS DUE TO SLOWING GROWTH
    April 20, 2018
    ECB SEEN DELAYING QE EXIT DECISION UNTIL JULY OR AUGUST MEETINGS DUE TO SLOWING GROWTH KEY MESSAGES: Economists still predict asset purchases will end this year, Protectionism seen as bigger threat than recent slowdown, As long as the risk of a trade war isn’t off the table and the series of weak economic data hasn’t
  • THE FED CONTINUES TO FIGHT A ‘FINANCIAL CONDITIONS” PROBLEM
    April 20, 2018
    THE FED CONTINUES TO FIGHT A 'FINANCIAL CONDITIONS" PROBLEM Think about the dilemma the Federal Reserve is facing. They are raising rates, but can’t tighten financial conditions! The ongoing buy-back development (and expected to increase because of tax cuts) only mutes the Federal Reserve’s effectiveness at influencing financial conditions as stocks and other credit spreads
  • TOTAL GLOBAL FACTOR PRODUCTIVITY (TFP) IN STEADY LONG TERM DECLINE
    April 18, 2018
    TOTAL GLOBAL FACTOR PRODUCTIVITY (TFP) IN STEADY LONG TERM DECLINE -- SOURCE: 04-18-18 Tuomas Malinen of GnS Economics - "Zombies And The End Of The "Global Synchronized Recovery"-- Several economic indicators have turned to the south at the beginning of this year. They clearly indicate a slowing economic momentum (see this, this and this). This is something that was not supposed
  • GLOBAL SWIFT BANKING SYSTEM STATISTICS SUGGESTS US$ LIKELY TO SOON RALLY
    April 17, 2018
    GLOBAL SWIFT BANKING SYSTEM STATISTICS SUGGESTS US$ LIKELY TO SOON RALLY The U.S. accounts for less than 25% of the global economy and that number will be in steady decline amid the rapid growth of China and India. And yet the dollar still takes up almost 63% of global FX reserves. That mismatch will gradually
  • EXAMINING HOW THE CREDIT CYCLE WILL REVERSE
    April 15, 2018
    EXAMINING HOW THE CREDIT CYCLE WILL REVERSE CONCLUSION The Fed is behind the curve on Inflation and presumably knows this. They are likely highly aware of the potential for a Recession in early in 2019. As a consequence they appear to feel they should error on being aggressive regarding rate hikes so they have more
  • MACRO ANALYTICS – 04-05-18 – Were Trade Wars Inevitable? Part II w/Charles Hugh Smith
    April 9, 2018
  • MACRO ANALYTICS – 04-05-18 – Were Trade Wars Inevitable? Part I
    April 6, 2018
  • THE PETROYUAN & RUSSIA
    April 5, 2018
    THE PETROYUAN & RUSSIA Is Putin Winning The War Of Attrition With The U.S.? Wednesday, April 4, 2018, 10:00 PM Authored by Tom Luongo, The news that President Donald Trump offered to hold a meeting with his counterpart in the Kremlin, Vladimir Putin, has the political world in an uproar. Furiously keyboards are chattering away
  • CHINESE NEWS EXTOLS: PETROYUAN A STRATEGIC COMPETITIVE ADVANTAGE
    April 3, 2018
    CHINESE NEWS EXTOLS: PETROYUAN A STRATEGIC COMPETITIVE ADVANTAGE -- SOURCE: 03-29-18 Global Times - "‘Petroyuan’ to propel currency internationalization" -- The Shanghai debut of China's first yuan-denominated crude futures trading market on Monday proved a great success, with major domestic and foreign traders displaying active interest. Total turnover amounted to 18.3 billion yuan ($2.9 billion)
  • CHINA ENGINEERING SOCIAL BEHAVIOR – TO IMPLEMENT “SOCIAL CREDIT SYSTEM” BY 2020
    April 3, 2018
    CHINA ENGINEERING SOCIAL BEHAVIOR - TO IMPLEMENT "SOCIAL CREDIT SYSTEM" BY 2020 -- SOURCE: 04-01-18 ABC - "China's Social Credit System seeks to assign citizens scores, engineer social behaviour" -- VIDEO: click to play:  Surveillance software identifies details about people and vehicles in Beijing.(Photo: Reuters/Thomas Peter) (The World) Chinese authorities claim they have banned more than 7
  • ECRI: GLOBAL LEADING ECONOMIC INDEX TURNING DOWN
    March 31, 2018
    ECRI: GLOBAL LEADING ECONOMIC INDEX TURNING DOWN Global Economy's Wile E. Coyote Moment - ECRI Our prediction last year of a global growth downturn was based on our 20-Country Long Leading Index, which, in 2016, foresaw the synchronized global growth upturn that the consensus only started to recognize around the spring of 2017. With the synchronized global
  • GLOBAL SYNCHRONOUS RECOVERY NARRATIVE COMING APART RAPIDLY
    March 31, 2018
    GLOBAL SYNCHRONOUS RECOVERY NARRATIVE COMING APART RAPIDLY -- SOURCE: 03-30-18 ZeroHedge - "Global Synchronous Recovery' Narrative Crushed As EU, US Data Diverge" -- The chart below shows the Citi Economic Surprise Index for the US, compared against the broader G10 index, and the Europe index. The out-performance of US positive data surprises is stark... highlighting
  • US CONSUMERS ARE BUYING INTO THE “HAPPY BUBBLE” BUT INCOMES DON’T SUPPORT THE MEDIA EUPHORIA
    March 29, 2018
    US CONSUMERS ARE BUYING INTO THE "HAPPY BUBBLE" BUT INCOMES DON'T SUPPORT THE MEDIA EUPHORIA US CONSUMER SAVINGS RATE CONTINUES TO FALL  MORE & MORE ARE FORCED TO USE CREDIT TO MAKE ENDS
  • ROSENBERG: CONSUMER DEBT-STRAPPED & TAPPED OUT! PENT-UP DEMAND IS SPENT!
    March 29, 2018
    ROSENBERG: CONSUMER DEBT-STRAPPED & TAPPED OUT! PENT-UP DEMAND IS SPENT! --SOURCE: 03-28-18 ZH - "Rosenberg: Household Buying Plans Take A Deep Dive" -- We previously noted that the personal savings rate has continued to decline, and in the latest month it tumbled from 3.2% to 2.9%, the lowest since November 2007, which as a reminder is one