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RESEARCH – Tipping Points

  • CONSUMER CONFIDENCE IN “CURRENT ECONOMIC SITUATION” MATCHES PEAK DOTCOM BUBBLE
    August 10, 2018
    CONSUMER CONFIDENCE IN "CURRENT ECONOMIC SITUATION" MATCHES PEAK DOTCOM BUBBLE -- SOURCE: 07-31-18 - "Americans Are The Most Confident In The Current Economic Situation Since The Peak Of The DotCom Bubble" -- While 'Hope' continues to fade (now at its lowest since Dec 2017), The Conference Board's
  • A POTENTIAL ASIAN CURRENCY SHOCK LOOMING (REMEMBER 1997)
    August 10, 2018
    A POTENTIAL ASIAN CURRENCY SHOCK LOOMING (REMEMBER 1997) Sino-American trade war could trigger a currency shock in Asian markets..." -- SOURCE: - 08-08-18 Nikkei Asian Review, George Magnus - "The looming threat of a yuan depreciation" -- George Magnus is an associate at Oxford University's China
  • WHAT’S UP IN THE CREDIT DEFAULT SWAP MARKET?
    August 8, 2018
    WHAT'S UP IN THE CREDIT DEFAULT SWAP MARKET? Bloomberg recently noted that there has been an increase in CDS trading for hedging purposes, with first half CDS index volume rising to the highest level in 5 years, and JPM adding that derivative trading volume jumped 65% Y/Y in the first half of
  • SHORT INTEREST IN GLOBAL JUNK BOND ETF’S JUST HIT AN ALL TIME HIGH
    August 8, 2018
    SHORT INTEREST IN GLOBAL JUNK BOND ETF'S JUST HIT AN ALL TIME
  • VANISHING LIQUIDITY HAS BECOME A MAJOR CONCERN OF TRADERS
    August 7, 2018
    VANISHING LIQUIDITY HAS BECOME A MAJOR CONCERN OF TRADERS KEY MESSAGES: 1- Vanishing liquidity in the market has resulted in: Increasingly greater bid/ask spreads as well A sharp decline in market depth 2- Bond traders fear that when the selling begins, there will simply not be enough liquidity to
  • MORGAN STANLEY SAYS THERE IS A MOMENTUM ROTATION PROBLEM FOR TECH & LEADING GROWTH STOCKS
    August 6, 2018
    MORGAN STANLEY SAYS THERE IS A MOMENTUM ROTATION PROBLEM FOR TECH & LEADING GROWTH STOCKS -- SOURCE: 08-06-18 - ""The Market Has Two Broken Legs": Why Morgan Stanley Doubled Down On Its Bearish Call" -- Last Monday, Morgan Stanley made quite a splash with its contrarian call, when in the
  • THE FORGOTTEN “MARK-TO-MARKET” RULE CHANGE IS KEEPING US TREASURES FROM COLLAPSING
    August 2, 2018
    THE FORGOTTEN "MARK-TO-MARKET" RULE CHANGE IS KEEPING US TREASURES FROM COLLAPSING -- SOURCE: 07-22-18 The Epoch Times, Victor Sperandeo - "The Rules of the Bond Game" -- There are powerful incentives for private banks to keep buying Treasurys despite rising supply and inflation The seal of the
  • RICKARDS WARNS: PREPARE FOR A CHINESE MAXI-DEVALUATION
    August 1, 2018
    RICKARDS WARNS: PREPARE FOR A CHINESE MAXI-DEVALUATION -- SOURCE: 07-25-18 Daily Reckoning, James Rickards - "Rickards Warns "Prepare For A Chinese Maxi-Devaluation" -- The news is being dominated by breathless headlines about the new trade war between the U.S. and China. But this trade war has
  • GROWTH IMPULSE FROM FISCAL POLICY & FINANCIAL CONDITIONS IS DECELERATING
    July 31, 2018
    GROWTH IMPULSE FROM FISCAL POLICY & FINANCIAL CONDITIONS IS DECELERATING What was until a few months ago a "global coordinated recovery", has since turned into "decoupling" where the US remains the only economy growing above trend, with both the EU and China suffering from a recent
  • A PROPOSED US RESPONSE TO THE CHINESE STRATEGIC THREAT
    July 30, 2018
    A PROPOSED US RESPONSE TO THE CHINESE STRATEGIC THREAT Researched by Eric Peters, CIO of One River Asset Management “Russia at its very worst is a moderate threat to the US,” said the investor. “They have modest regional ambitions. They’re mischievous. But plenty of countries don’t do
TIPPING POINTS

RISK CATEGORIES

Subscribers have access to the Tipping Point Risk Categories. Relevant research is organized within these and they provide an excellent place to start your due diligence.  These categories (and their contained research) are the start of Gordon’s Abstraction & Synthesis process that he employs to formulate his original thinking. It is also the primary “data base” for all research material used in various videos, articles etc.  Subscriber access only, the current Tipping Point Risk Categories are shown below.  

HIGHEST RISK

ELEVATED RISK

MODERATE RISK

LOW RISK