New Main ALL Logo 2

Welcome to MATASII Macro Analytics & Technical Analysis Strategic Investment Insights

PUBLIC content updated regularly. Some of our subscribers content is released for public consumption, bookmark us as part of your due diligence. 

Original Global Macro & Technical Analysis methods and techniques combined for unique insights, perspectives and world leading analysis.

Subscribe for full content: complete your due diligence and gain access to our Market Research, Strategic Investment Insights, and Investment & Trading Ideas.

RESEARCH – Tipping Points

  • COST OF CARRY LIKELY TO TRIGGER THE NEXT RECESSION AS ENTIRE DEBT CONSTRUCT COMES UNDER PRESSURE
    February 18, 2018
    COST OF CARRY LIKELY TO TRIGGER THE NEXT RECESSION AS ENTIRE DEBT CONSTRUCT COMES UNDER PRESSURE Higher interest rates will ultimately trigger the next recession as the entire debt construct will be weighted down by the burdens of cost of carry. And today’s inflation and correlated weakening retail sales data suggested that there’s price sensitivity
  • “CUP & HANDLE” WARNING OF BOND SELLING & A 3.5% 10Y UST
    February 18, 2018
    "CUP & HANDLE" WARNING OF BOND SELLING & A 3.5% 10Y UST -- SOURCE: Sven Henrich via NorthmanTrader.com  The 10 year has broken out of its cup and handle pattern:   The pattern incidentally targets 3.5% and that is way above Gundlach’s panic moment for
  • WHAT CHANGED ON SEPTEMBER 8th, 2017?
    February 14, 2018
    WHAT CHANGED ON SEPTEMBER 8th, 2017? -- SOURCE: 02-13-18 Craig Hemke, Sprott Money News - "What Changed On September 8, 2017?" -- Over the past five months, we've frequently asked the same question:  What changed on September 8?? You may recall that September 8 was the day the bond market abruptly turned, taking with it
  • THE TECHNICAL CHART TO WATCH DURING THE CURRENT MARKET VOLATILITY – THE SPX:TNX RATIO
    February 11, 2018
    THE TECHNICAL CHART TO WATCH DURING THE CURRENT MARKET VOLATILITY - THE SPX:TNX
  • PRIMARY BANDS – WATCHING THE LONGER TERM FED “NORMALIZATION” MARKET IMPACT
    February 11, 2018
    PRIMARY BANDS - WATCHING THE LONGER TERM FED "NORMALIZATION" MARKET IMPACT The markets are beginning to react to the planned actions of the Central Banks by adjusting
  • S&P 500 MOMENTUM SUFFERS WORST SWING IN HISTORY OF US EQUITY MARKETS
    February 10, 2018
    S&P 500 MOMENTUM SUFFERS WORST SWING IN HISTORY OF US EQUITY MARKETS Momentum suffered its worst swing in the history of the US equity
  • IT ISN’T OVER: AGGREGATE TREASURY POSITIONING JUST WENT MOST SHORT EVER!
    February 10, 2018
    IT ISN'T OVER: AGGREGATE TREASURY POSITIONING JUST WENT MOST SHORT EVER! Speculators just sent aggregate Treasury positioning to its most short ever (and rate-hike bets back over $3 trillion notional)... Trader short bias is especially pronounced at both the short-end, i.e. the 2Y treasury, where net specs just hit a new record net short, as
  • “IMPLIED EQUITY CORRELATION” SPIKE SIGNALS SYSTEMIC WORRIES OF HIGH CORRELATION EVENT
    February 10, 2018
    "IMPLIED EQUITY CORRELATION" SPIKE SIGNALS SYSTEMIC WORRIES OF HIGH CORRELATION EVENT --SOURCE: 02-10-18 ZeroHedge - "Traders Now Record Short Bonds After Biggest VIX Futures Liquidation Ever" -- After a chaotic week of volatility-related volatility, some of the unbelievable fallout from the "end of the short-vol trade" is being exposed. The week was full of superlatives...(and
  • “CRITICAL STRESS SIGNAL” TRIGGERED WHERE FED NORMALLY STEPS IN – BUT WILL THEY????
    February 10, 2018
    "CRITICAL STRESS SIGNAL" TRIGGERED WHERE FED NORMALLY STEPS IN - BUT WILL THEY???? -- SOURCE: 02-10-18 ZeroHedge - "BofA's 'Critical Stress Signal' Was Just Triggered: "This Is Where Central Banks Step In" -- The last two hours of trading on Friday aside, when a violent short squeeze coupled with unsubstantiated speculation by JPMorgan that the
  • LARGEST GLOBAL HEDGE FUND TAKES GIGANTIC SELECTIVE EU BANK & ENERGY SHORT POSITIONS
    February 10, 2018
    LARGEST GLOBAL HEDGE FUND TAKES GIGANTIC SELECTIVE EU BANK & ENERGY SHORT POSITIONS Ray Dalio - Bridgewater Last October, Italy's government was angry when the world's largest hedge fund, Ray Dalio's Bridgewater unveiled it had amassed a sizable  $713 million short against Italian financial stocks, its biggest disclosed bearish bet in Europe. Then last week,
  • GLOBAL STOCKS FOLLOW GLOBAL MANUFACTURING – CYCLICAL PEAKING PMI FORECAST TO WEAKEN
    February 9, 2018
    GLOBAL STOCKS FOLLOW GLOBAL MANUFACTURING - CYCLICAL PEAKING PMI FORECAST TO WEAKEN The Global PMI appears to be peaking within its current later stages of its expansionary cycle. The PMI is additionally now showing indications of weakening which has prompted analysts to begin taking down their forecasts. This is to be expected in the final
  • A $2 TRILLION ASSET CLASS: MAPPING KEY ELEMENTS TO THE VOLATILITY UNDERWORLD
    February 8, 2018
    A $2 TRILLION ASSET CLASS: MAPPING KEY ELEMENTS TO THE VOLATILITY UNDERWORLD -- SOURCE: 02-07-18 Bloomberg - "Map to the Underworld: $2 Trillion of Volatility Trades Here" -- Products tied to market swings put in spotlight amid selloff Inverse VIX ETPs grew in popularity with short-vol trade For a fledgling asset class whose idiosyncrasies are
  • VALUATION: SECOND HIGHEST AT 116% AND A STANDARD DEVIATION HIGHER THAN 1929
    February 8, 2018
    VALUATION: SECOND HIGHEST AT 116% AND A STANDARD DEVIATION HIGHER THAN 1929 Below is a plot of the Arithmetic column (the lower of the two - to be conservative) that suggest the second highest over-valuation since records
  • SHORT VOLATILITY (VIX) PRODUCTS PLUNGE $3.2 BILLION
    February 8, 2018
    SHORT VOLATILITY (VIX) PRODUCTS PLUNGE $3.2 BILLION Before whirlwind, banks turned volatility into the hot item VIX was seen as sure thing -- until it suddenly wasn’t anymore  -- SOURCE: 02-06-18 Bloomberg - "Volatility Inc.: Inside Wall Street’s $8 Billion Mess" -- It was the hot trade on Wall Street, a seemingly sure thing that
  • RISK-PARITY & CTA MANAGED FUTURES FUNDS SELLING $200B
    February 6, 2018
      RISK-PARITY & CTA MANAGED FUTURES FUNDS SELLING $200B --SOURCE: 02-06-18 ZeroHedge - "That Was Just The Start: Risk Parity, CTAs Are In Process Of Selling $200 Billion" -- Now that inverse VIX ETFs have effectively blown up, suffering "termination events" like XIV earlier today, one of the forming bullish market narratives is that there
  • WHAT TO EXPECT – YOUR ROADMAP TO WHAT LIES AHEAD
    February 6, 2018
    WHAT TO EXPECT - YOUR ROADMAP OF WHAT LIES
  • SHORTING VOLATILITY FINALLY GOES “LIGHTS OUT”!
    February 6, 2018
    SHORTING  VOLATILITY FINALLY GOES "LIGHTS OUT"! Review the December 13th LONGWave video for our warning and hat to expect now - The Passive ETF Dynamo The VIX finally went bananas rising 20 points to the highest level since Aug 2015 By Charlie McElligott, managing director of cross-asset strategy at Nomura - ""The Vol Market Finally Broke":
  • WHAT’S HAPPENING? – ITS ABOUT VIX ETF COVERING, RISK PARITY, ETNs & FORCED VaR REBALANCING
    February 6, 2018
    WHAT'S HAPPENING? - ITS ABOUT VIX ETF COVERING, RISK PARITY, ETNs & FORCED VaR REBALANCING To understand what is going on in the Equity Market you need to review the December 13th LONGWave video for our warning and what to expect now - The Passive ETF Dynamo and have a basic understanding of the following concepts: Exchange
  • THE RISK-PARITY FUND “SCHEME” BLOWS UP – DJIA INTRA-DAY DOWN ~1597 PTS
    February 6, 2018
    THE RISK-PARITY FUND "SCHEME" BLOWS UP - DJIA INTRA-DAY DOWN ~1597 PTS  -- SOURCE: 02-05-18 Phoenix Capital - Graham Summers - "The Risk Parity/ Short Vol Trade Just Blew Up" -- The risk-parity fund market rig is officially over. Throughout 2017, I noted that “someone” was slamming the VIX lower to force risk-parity funds to
  • THE FED CHANGES THE RULES WHEN IT IS TRAPPED -> THE NEW “IOER” & “ENRICH-THY-NEIGHBOR” DECEPTION
    February 4, 2018
    THE FED CHANGES THE RULES WHEN IT IS TRAPPED -> THE NEW "IOER" & "ENRICH-THY-NEIGHBOR" DECEPTION --EXCERPTED FROM: 02-03-18 Chris Martenson via PeakProsperity.com - "It's Looking A Lot Like 2008 Now..." -- The warning signs in 2007 were abundant and, for most, completely obvious in hindsight.  I was writing about them extensively at the time and,
  • THE FED CHANGES THE RULES WHEN IT IS TRAPPED -> THE “MONEY MARKET SWEEP” EXAMPLE
    February 4, 2018
    THE FED CHANGES THE RULES WHEN IT IS TRAPPED -> THE "MONEY MARKET SWEEP" EXAMPLE MATASII: Chart Courtesy of Bill Bonner via InternationalMan.com, You will note that global debt was only $30 trillion in 1994. Now it is $230 trillion. That $200 trillion in extra credit is probably the whirlwind that sent equities spinning up
  • THESIS 2015 FIDUCIARY FAILURE: UK PENSIONS UNDERFUNDED BY $300B
    February 1, 2018
    THESIS 2015 FIDUCIARY FAILURE: UK PENSIONS UNDERFUNDED BY $300B -- SOURCE: 02-01-18 Yahoo Finance - UK -  "Two out of three UK pension schemes are in the red to the tune of £210bn" -- Two out of three pension funds are in the red – to the tune of a combined £210 billion, it has been revealed.
  • 10Y UST SPIKES ABOVE CRITICAL 2.70% TO 2.73 – SPEED OF MOVE MAY BE THE REAL PROBLEM
    February 1, 2018
    10Y UST SPIKES ABOVE CRITICAL 2.70% TO 2.73 - SPEED OF MOVE MAY BE THE REAL PROBLEM -- SOURCE: 01-31-18 Leuthold Group via Bloomberg - "One Indicator Says Bond Rout Going Too Fast for Stocks to Escape" & ZH - "It's Not The Size That Matters, It's The Speed (Of The Selloff)" -- Earlier this
  • US TOWNS & CITIES IMPERILED BY PUBLIC UNIONS THROUGH STATE LABOR LAWS
    February 1, 2018
    US TOWNS & CITIES IMPERILED BY PUBLIC UNIONS THROUGH STATE LABOR LAWS -- SOURCE: 01-31-18 ZeroHedge - "Connecticut's Towns Are Crying For Help: But Will Hartford Listen?" -- As we've pointed out time and time again, the government of the state of Connecticut is sinking into debt at a time when rising interest rates and
  • US RECESSION WORRIES > DEAD AHEAD! – YET ANOTHER SIGNAL THE BUSINESS CYCLE HAS REVERSED
    January 30, 2018
    US RECESSION WORRIES > DEAD AHEAD! - YET ANOTHER SIGNAL THE BUSINESS CYCLE HAS REVERSED
  • WHY STOCKS ARE STILL MOVING HIGHER DESPITE SLOWING CB PURCHASES?
    January 28, 2018
    WHY STOCKS ARE STILL MOVING HIGHER DESPITE SLOWING CB PURCHASES? -- SOURCE: 01-28-18 Citi via ZH - "Bonds Finally Noticed What Is Going On... Stocks Are Next" -- Emerging Market Boost by FX Reserve Managers (Mostly China) - "Selling US Treasuries and Buying Stocks", Retail Investor Capitulation - "Can't Afford to Miss Out Mentality!" Well,
  • CENTRAL BANK ROLLING 3MO ASSET PURCHASES IN FX ADJUSTED US$ EQUIVALENT HAS TEMPORARILY SPIKED
    January 28, 2018
    CENTRAL BANK ROLLING 3MO ASSET PURCHASES IN FX ADJUSTED US$ EQUIVALENT HAS TEMPORARILY SPIKED -- SOURCE: 01-28-18 Citi via ZH - "Bonds Finally Noticed What Is Going On... Stocks Are Next" -- Though Major Central Banks have been reducing their rate of Asset Purchases, the Emerging Markets (dominated by China) have recently been selling US
  • CREDIT CYCLE:  CREDIT REPRICING HAS BEGUN
    January 28, 2018
    CREDIT CYCLE:  CREDIT REPRICING HAS BEGUN  -- SOURCE: 01-28-18 Citi via ZH - "Bonds Finally Noticed What Is Going On... Stocks Are Next" -- It is safe to say that one of the most popular, and important, charts of 2017, was the one showing the ongoing and projected decline across central bank assets, which from
  • CORPORATE CASH FLOWS CONTINUE TO SLOW – APPROACH “NO GROWTH” CREDIT RATING BOUNDARY CONDITIONS
    January 27, 2018
    CORPORATE CASH FLOWS CONTINUE TO SLOW - APPROACH "NO GROWTH" CREDIT RATING BOUNDARY CONDITIONS -- SOURCE: 01-23-18 Bloomberg - "Slowing Cash Flow Could Mean a ‘Nasty Surprise’ for U.S. Stocks" -- Amidst the euphoria over fresh record highs in U.S. stocks, Societe Generale SA is among a few investment firms now highlighting warning signs for investors. Concerns over a flattening
  • UNCTAD: GLOBAL FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT PLUMMETS A FURTHER 16% IN 2017
    January 26, 2018
    UNCTAD: GLOBAL FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT PLUMMETS A FURTHER 16% IN 2017  -- SOURCE: 01-22-18 UN Conference on Trade & Development FULL REPORT Promoting foreign direct investment for development remains challenging as global flows in 2017 fall in contrast to other macroeconomic variables. Global flows of foreign direct investment (FDI) fell by 16% in 2017 to
TIPPING POINTS

RISK CATEGORIES

Subscribers have access to the Tipping Point Risk Categories. Relevant research is organized within these and they provide an excellent place to start your due diligence.  These categories (and their contained research) are the start of Gordon’s Abstraction & Synthesis process that he employs to formulate his original thinking. It is also the primary “data base” for all research material used in various videos, articles etc.  Subscriber access only, the current Tipping Point Risk Categories are shown below.  

HIGHEST RISK

ELEVATED RISK

MODERATE RISK

LOW RISK