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RESEARCH – Tipping Points

  • EURO EXPLODES TO TWO YEAR HIGH
    July 21, 2017
    EURO EXPLODES TO TWO YEAR HIGH Excerpted From:  --SOURCE: 07-21-17 ZeroHedge - "Euro Surges To 2-Year High In "Bipolar" Draghi Reaction; Futures Flat" -- .... Attention was on the EUR in the aftermath of Thursday's paradoxical Draghi press conference, which led to a "bipolar" market reaction, seen as dovish by rates while hawkish by FX.  The euro's surge
  • THE DEATH SPIRAL OF FINANCIALIZATION
    July 20, 2017
    THE DEATH SPIRAL OF FINANCIALIZATION -- SOURCE:  07-19-17 - Charles Hugh Smith "The Death Spiral of Financialization" -- Each new policy destroys another level of prudent fiscal/financial discipline. The primary driver of our economy--financialization--is in a death spiral. Financialization substitutes expansion of interest, leverage and speculation for real-world expansion of goods, services and wages. Financial "wealth" created by
  • GLOBAL CREDIT IMPULSE (2nd DERIVATIVE OF GLOBAL CREDIT GROWTH) CONTINUES TO DETERIORATE
    July 20, 2017
    GLOBAL CREDIT IMPULSE (2nd DERIVATIVE OF GLOBAL CREDIT GROWTH) CONTINUES TO
  • MARKET EXPOSURE: COMMODITIES & CENTRAL BANK POLICY SHIFT
    July 17, 2017
    MARKET EXPOSURE: COMMODITIES & CENTRAL BANK POLICY SHIFT Citi's Jeremy Hale notes, forward expectations of earnings for current year and next year in the US are holding up reasonably well compared to previous years (Figure 4, top LHS), however the real question is what happens in Q3/Q4?  BofA's Michael Hartnett said earlier this week  "the
  • A WARNING INDICATOR THAT HAS AN EXCELLENT TRACK RECORD – WE SHOULD BE PREPARING NOW!
    July 14, 2017
    A WARNING INDICATOR THAT HAS AN EXCELLENT TRACK RECORD - WE SHOULD BE PREPARING NOW! When a Rising Y-o-Y Delinquency Rate on Credit Card Loans CROSSES a Falling Rate O C&I Loans it spells =
  • “SIZING” A POTENTIAL MARKET CORRECTION
    July 14, 2017
    "SIZING" A POTENTIAL MARKET CORRECTION  --SOURCE: 07-05-17 Lance Roberts via RealInvestmentAdvice.com - " How Big Could A Correction Be?" -- On Monday, the market was open for a half-day preceding the “Independence Day” holiday, and with the majority of the “human element” on vacation, the markets surged as the “robots” kicked in to “buy the recent dip.” As I noted in this past weekend’s missive: “As
  • SUPERCOMPUTERS WARN OF MARKET CRASH
    July 14, 2017
    SUPERCOMPUTERS WARN OF MARKET CRASH  -- SOURCE: 07-10-17 Via FinancialSense.com, - "Sornette's Supercomputer Is Betting On A Market Crash "  -   One of the world's most powerful supercomputers, retrofitted for trading the stock market, appears to be betting on a crash in the months ahead. The Financial Crisis Observatory (FCO) at ETH Zurich released its latest Global
  • RECORD WEALTH IN AMERICA ($94.8T) BUT 72% OF US BUSINESSES NOT PROFITABLE?
    July 14, 2017
    RECORD WEALTH IN AMERICA ($94.8T) BUT 72% OF US BUSINESSES NOT PROFITABLE?  -- SOURCE: 07-12-17 Simon Black via SovereignMan.com, via ZeroHedge - "Record "Wealth" In America? 72% Of US Businesses Are Not Profitable" -- The Federal Reserve in the United States just released a new report showing that “Total Household Wealth” in the United States has reached
  • BoAML SEES MASSIVE MARKET INFLECTION POINT LEADING TO FALL FINANCIAL EVENT
    July 14, 2017
    BoAML SEES MASSIVE MARKET INFLECTION POINT LEADING TO FALL FINANCIAL EVENT  --SOURCE: 07-07-17 BoAML via ZeroHedge - "BofA: "Massive Market Inflection Point Coming This Summer: Will Lead To Fall Crash" -- One week after BofA's Michael Hartnett became the latest strategist to admit the truth, when in his Flow Show report from last week he said that
  • MARKET OVER VALUATION CONTINUES TO INCREASE – NOW ~99.3% OVERVALUED
    July 14, 2017
    MARKET OVER VALUATION CONTINUES TO INCREASE – NOW ~99.3% OVERVALUED -- SOURCE: 07-05-17 Doug Short -  "Market Remains Overvalued" -- Market Remains Overvalued Here is a summary of the four market valuation indicators we update on a monthly basis. The Crestmont Research P/E Ratio (more) The cyclical P/E ratio using the trailing 10-year earnings as
  • NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF ACTIVE INVESTMENT MANAGERS’ EXPOSURE INDEX
    July 13, 2017
    NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF ACTIVE INVESTMENT MANAGERS' EXPOSURE INDEX MATASII MARK-UP NAAIM Exposure Index The NAAIM Exposure Index represents the average exposure to US Equity markets reported by our members. The green line shows the close of the S&P 500 Total Return Index on the survey date. The blue line depicts a two-week moving average of the NAAIM
  • SENTIMENT: JUNE SMALL BUSINESS SENTIMENT – OPTIMISM INDEX
    July 13, 2017
    SENTIMENT: JUNE SMALL BUSINESS SENTIMENT - OPTIMISM INDEX MATASII MARK-UP   the correlation between consumer confidence and small business sentiment, the latter by way of the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) Small Business Optimism Index. As the chart illustrates, the two have tracked one another fairly closely since the onset of the Financial Crisis, although
  • SENTIMENT: JUNE UNIVERSITY OF MICHIGAN CONSUMER SENTIMENT INDEX FALLS SIGNIFICANTLY
    July 13, 2017
    SENTIMENT: JUNE UNIVERSITY OF MICHIGAN CONSUMER SENTIMENT INDEX FALLS SIGNIFICANTLY MATASII MARK-UP
  • SENTIMENT: CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INCREASES MODERATELY IN JUNE
    July 13, 2017
    SENTIMENT: CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INCREASES MODERATELY IN JUNE MATASII MARK-UP Consumer Confidence Increased Moderately in June The latest Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index was released this morning based on data collected through June 15. The headline number of 118.9 was an increase from the final reading of 117.6 for May, a downward revision from 117.9. Today's
  • US ENERGY INFORMATION ADMIN. SHOWS TOTAL US ENERGY USAGE IN DECLINE
    July 11, 2017
    US ENERGY INFORMATION ADMIN. SHOWS TOTAL US ENERGY USAGE IN DECLINE The June release from the US Energy Information Administration shows that total US Energy usage has been in decline since the financial Crisis and in the last three years has been basically flat. This shouldn't occur this deep in an Economic Recovery. DOWNLOAD PDF:
  • US GASOLINE INVENTORIES AT 5 YEAR HIGH – LACK OF DEMAND!
    July 11, 2017
    US GASOLINE INVENTORIES AT 5 YEAR HIGH - LACK OF DEMAND! Gasoline Inventories are now at the highest level in 5 yrs as average prices at the pump have fallen nationally. Its a DEMAND problem not just
  • “VICE” INDEX SHOWS US SLOWDOWN AHEAD
    July 11, 2017
    "VICE" INDEX SHOWS US SLOWDOWN AHEAD  --SOURCE: 07-06-17  Authored by Andrew Zaitlin via MoneyBallEconomics.com, Gambling Continues To Slow The above chart averages the rates of gambling growth for Detroit, Maryland, Connecticut, Atlantic City, &  Pennsylvania. While comps play a role in exaggerating some of the contraction, the trend is clear:  less gambling.  And that means
  • RESTAURANTS ARE SENDING A WARNING MESSAGE
    July 11, 2017
    RESTAURANTS ARE SENDING A WARNING MESSAGE The last time this happened it was a pre-warning to the Financial Crisis. Usually however it is normally a sign of an approaching reversal in the Business Cycle and a coming Recession?
  • VALUATIONS: SHILLER CAPE RATIO ONLY HIGHER ONCE IN HISTORY
    July 5, 2017
    VALUATIONS - SHILLER CAPE RATIO ONLY HIGHER ONCE IN HISTORY --SOURCE: 06-29-17 ZeroHedge -  "Robert Shiller: "The Index I Invented Is At Levels Last Seen In 1929 And 2000" -- With the Shiller CAPE index having surpassed the 30x for the first time since September 2001, its creator, Nobel Laureate and Yale School of Management Economics Professor
  • EMERGING MARKET DEBT GROWTH -WHAT’S UP?
    July 2, 2017
    ITS STARTED: INFLOWS TO "STRUCTURAL DEFLATION" -- OUTFLOWS FROM "CYCLICAL INFLATION" Despite the recent dollar strength (if not so much in the past quarter), dollar bond issuance in Emerging Markets has been on a tear over the past year. While the EM bond universe has increased by $2.5 trillion to $18.4 trillion since 2016, only
  • BANKS PREPARING BALANCE SHEETS FOR THE END OF THE DEBT SUPER-CYCLE
    July 1, 2017
    BANKS PREPARING BALANCE SHEETS FOR THE END OF THE DEBT SUPER-CYCLE While much of the debt issuance at the financial sector level has moderated in recent years, supplanted by outside money created by central banks, debt in the non-financial sector has continued to grow, and as of Q1 2017, hit an all time high of
  • CHINA DOMINATE SOURCE OF DEBT GROWTH OVER LAST DECADE
    July 1, 2017
    CHINA DOMINATE SOURCE OF DEBT GROWTH OVER LAST DECADE China continues to be the biggest source of global debt growth, with the country's total debt load now surpassing 300%. CHINA'S SHARE OF $217B GLOBAL DEBT 10 YEAR GROWTH
  • LACKLUSTER MOTORCYCLE SPENDING A CLEAR SIGN OF CONSUMER FRAILTY
    June 30, 2017
    LACKLUSTER MOTORCYCLE SPENDING A CLEAR SIGN OF CONSUMER FRAILTY Economists like to look at sales of discretionary goods to determine whether or not the consumer is experiencing any potential weakness. Motorcycles tend to be a closely-watched discretionary barometer. Though spending has improved from the lowly pace registered in mid-to-late 2016, there still isn't much to
  • NEW GLOBAL DEBT HIGH: $217B AT 327% OF GDP – UP $50T IN LAST DECADE
    June 30, 2017
    NEW GLOBAL DEBT HIGH: $217B AT 327% OF GDP - UP $50T IN LAST DECADE The Institute of International Finance is perhaps best known for its periodic - and concerning - reports summarizing global leverage statistics, and its latest Q1 report was the most troubling yet, because what it found was that in a period
  • THE END OF A GROWING GLOBAL CONSUMER BASE
    June 26, 2017
    THE END OF A GROWING GLOBAL CONSUMER BASE -- SOURCE; 06-26-17   Chris Hamilton via Econimica blog,  -- "The End Of A Growing Consumer Base... And The Beginning Of The Decline" -- In 1960, the core population (25-54yr/olds) of the OECD nations (US, Canada, Mexico, Chile, most the EU, UK, Turkey, Israel, Japan, S. Korea, Australia, NZ) was a
  • THE WORST MACRO CHART COMBINATION I HAVE SEEN IN A LONG TIME!
    June 26, 2017
    THE WORST MACRO CHART COMBINATION I HAVE SEEN IN A LONG TIME!
  • NERVOUSNESS ENTERING THE MARKETS ON CENTRAL BANK GUIDANCE
    June 26, 2017
    NERVOUSNESS ENTERING THE MARKETS ON CENTRAL BANK GUIDANCE Friday (06-23-17) saw a surge back into FANG stocks (retracing 75% of the Tech-Wreck drop). However, the slightly broader FANTASIA (FB, AMZN, NFLX, TSLA, GOOGL, CRM, INTL, AAPL) started to roll over after tagging the Fib 61.8% retracement of the tech wreck What is going on? It appears not
  • HARD & SOFT MACRO DATA HEADING DOWN
    June 24, 2017
    HARD & SOFT MACRO DATA HEADING DOWN It has been a long time since both the Hard and Soft MACRO Data headed down
  • CHINESE CREDIT IMPULSE APPEARS PROBLEMATIC OVER NEXT 12 MONTHS
    June 24, 2017
    CHINESE CREDIT IMPULSE APPEARS PROBLEMATIC OVER NEXT 12 MONTHS BAML's Global Financial Stress Index has collapsed to 3-year lows... however, judging by China's leading credit impulse, things are about to get
  • WEALTH INEQUALITY WILL SOON BRING CENTRAL BANKS UNDER INTENSE STRESS!
    June 23, 2017
    WEALTH INEQUALITY WILL SOON BRING CENTRAL BANKS UNDER INTENSE STRESS!  -- SOURCE: 06-22-17 via ZeroHedge - "Albert Edwards: "Citizens Will Soon Turn Their Rage Towards Central Bankers" -- During the populist revolt of 2016, which first led to the "shocking outcomes" of Brexit and then Trump, we cautioned that these phenomena were merely the "silent
TIPPING POINTS

TIPPING POINTS

From Gordon's process of Abstraction & Synthesis, Global Macro Research is organized in to categories or TIPPING POINTS, which are ranked within Risk Levels. From these Gordon is able to connect the dots and formulate his Thesis, Themes, MATA and other conclusions. Here are a few recent TIPPING POINTS - see what Gordon is reading and considering significant. Check back often as these are updated regularly.