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RESEARCH – Tipping Points

  • STRATEGICALLY IMPORTANT FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS PEAKED DAYS PRIOR TO FEBRUARY MARKET PANIC
    June 22, 2018
    STRATEGICALLY IMPORTANT FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS PEAKED DAYS PRIOR TO FEBRUARY MARKET PANIC -- SOURCE: 06-19-18 ZeroHedge -  "BTFSIFID?" -- A week ago we exposed an awkward reality - that as a handful of mega-tech companies in America were dragging stock indices higher, some of the world's most systemically important financial institutions were falling dramatically.   And things have
  • THESIS 2015: AMERICA’S RETIREMENT CRISIS – PART 2
    June 22, 2018
    THESIS 2015: AMERICA'S RETIREMENT CRISIS - PART 2 -- SOURCE: 06-22-18 Real Vision, Raoul Pal - "America's Retirement Crisis - Part 2" -- CONTENTS 1. A Crucial Turning Point 2. The Big Lie 3. A Recession is Coming 4. The Crisis Will Dwarf 2008 Today, we pull back the curtain on a big lie. In part
  • THESIS 2015: AMERICA’S RETIREMENT CRISIS – PART 1
    June 22, 2018
    THESIS 2015: AMERICA'S RETIREMENT CRISIS - PART 1 -- SOURCE: 06-21-18 Real Vision, Raoul Pal - "America's Retirement Crisis" -- CONTENTS 1. Ted Benna & The 401(k) 2. Wall Street's Greatest Gift 3. The Richest People In World History 4. A Rushing River Of Cash   Ted Benna was desperate. Sitting in his Philadelphia office
  • EURO$ SHORTAGE MAY BE WREAKING HAVOC WITH INTERNATIONAL BANKS
    June 22, 2018
    EURO$ SHORTAGE MAY BE WREAKING HAVOC WITH INTERNATIONAL BANKS -- SOURCE: 06-19-18 - "The Corporate Yield Curve Has Just Inverted" -- Just days after we first showed that the world's "Most Systemically Important Banks", or G-SIFIs, are tumbling even as US stocks trade just shy of all time highs, prompting Ian Hartnett to issue his first
  • BUSINESS INFLATION EXPECTATION FEARS SPIKE SUDDENLY TO 30 YEAR HIGH
    June 22, 2018
    BUSINESS INFLATION EXPECTATION FEARS SPIKE SUDDENLY TO 30 YEAR HIGH -- SOURCE: 06-21-18 - "Inflation Fears Spike To 30 Year Highs" -- Hidden deep in the narrative-busting Philly Fed survey plunge this morning was an alarming data point that may better explain the slump in stocks than mere disappointing headlines would suggest. While Prices Paid and Prices Received both rose
  • THE US-CHINA TRADE WAR IN ONE CHART
    June 21, 2018
    THE US-CHINA TRADE WAR IN ONE CHART -- SOURCE: 06-21-18 ZeroHedge - "The US-China Trade War Summarized In One Chart" -- With the US and China now actively engaged in several rounds of tit-for-tat tariffs and retaliations, it is easy to lose track of: a) where we currently are in the escalating trade standoff and
  • EXPECT CHINA TO CHANGE THE LEVERAGE STAKES IN THE ESCALATING TRADE WAR
    June 21, 2018
    EXPECT CHINA TO CHANGE THE LEVERAGE STAKES IN THE ESCALATING TRADE WAR -- SOURCE: 06-19-18 ZeroHedge - "As Trade War Escalates, Is China Running Out Of "Tit" For Trump's "Tat"?" -- In the space of a few hours last night, the US-China trade wars escalated from a modest $50 billion grenade to a $200 billion
  • CHINA ROUT HAS 1,023 STOCKS PLUNGING 10% IN ONE DAY
    June 21, 2018
    CHINA ROUTEHAS 1,023 STOCKS PLUNGING 10% IN ONE DAY -- SOURCE: 06-19-18 Bloomberg - "China Rout Has 1,023 Stocks Plunging 10% in One Day" -- Concern over escalating trade actions spurs panic selling Shanghai Composite Index falls below key 3,000 level In a stock market where investors are used to being disappointed, Tuesday’s plunge still
  • DEUTSCHE BANK RAISES WORRIES ABOUT EU BANKING – AGAIN!
    June 20, 2018
    DEUTSCHE BANK RAISES WORRIES ABOUT EU BANKING - AGAIN! -- SOURCE: 06-20-18 The Mises Institute, Thorstein Polleit - "Deutsche Bank's Troubles Raise Worries About The Future Of The Euro Zone"-- The euro banking sector is huge: In April 2018, its total balance sheet amounted to 30.9 trillion euro, accounting for 268 per cent of gross
  • DE-DOLLARIZATION ESCALATES: RUSSIA SELLS OFF RECORD AMOUNT OF US TREASURY BONDS
    June 20, 2018
    DE-DOLLARIZATION ESCALATES: RUSSIA SELLS OFF RECORD AMOUNT OF US TREASURY BONDS -- SOURCE: 06-19-18 The Strategic Culture Foundation, Arkady Savitsky - "De-Dollarization Escalates: Russia Sells Off Record Amount Of US Treasury Bonds" -- The US Treasury Department report for April published on June 15 revealed that Russia sold $47.4 billion out of the $96.1 it had held
  • GLOBAL FINANCIAL SYSTEM FACING MORE THAN A PERFECT STORM – IT MAY PROVE TO BE OF BIBLICAL PROPORTIONS!
    June 18, 2018
    GLOBAL FINANCIAL SYSTEM FACING MORE THAN A PERFECT STORM - IT MAY PROVE TO BE OF BIBLICAL PROPORTIONS! The following major shifts each have the potential to push government bond yields and mortgage rates higher. In combination, they create a toxic combination that could bring about the greatest surge in interest rates in decades. 1.
  • 16 OF THE WORLD’S MOST SYSTEMICALLY IMPORTANT BANKS HAVE QUIETLY FALLEN INTO BEAR MARKET TERRITORY
    June 16, 2018
    16 OF THE WORLD'S MOST SYSTEMICALLY IMPORTANT BANKS HAVE QUIETLY FALLEN INTO BEAR MARKET TERRITORY -- SOURCE: 06-15-18 ZeroHedge -  "Some Of The 'Most Systemically Important Banks' In The World Are Tumbling" -- Since the Federal Reserve hiked rates, "big" US banks have dramatically underperformed "small" US banks, continuing a trend that has been going
  • 42% OF FUND MANAGERS SAY CORPORATIONS ARE NOW OVER-LEVERED
    June 15, 2018
    42% OF FUND MANAGERS SAY CORPORATIONS ARE NOW OVER-LEVERED Of the 235 June Bank of America Merrill Lynch Fund Managers survey respondents with $684BN in AUM, a record 42% of investors said companies are over levered, far exceeding the 32% peak in 2008; overall an all-time high of net 34% think corporate balance sheets are
  • EXPECTATIONS BY FUND MANAGERS OF FASTER GLOBAL GROWTH CONTINUE TO FADE
    June 15, 2018
    EXPECTATIONS BY FUND MANAGERS OF FASTER GLOBAL GROWTH CONTINUE TO FADE According to the June Bank of America Fund Manager Survey expectations for faster global growth continued to fade, with just net 1% of investors indicating they think the global economy will strengthen over the next 12 months, barely above the boom/bust threshold and still at
  • GLOBAL GROWTH IS SLOWING – MORE SO IN THE EU THAN ANYWHERE
    June 15, 2018
    GLOBAL GROWTH IS SLOWING - MORE SO IN THE EU THAN
  • INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY 97% OF S&P 500 TOTAL YTD RETURNS AND DOMINATED BY FANG+
    June 13, 2018
    INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY 97% OF S&P 500 TOTAL YTD RETURNS AND DOMINATED BY FANG+ Information Technology accounts for 97% of the S&P 500's total return performance
  • MICROSOFT’S LACK OF REVENUE GROWTH HIGHLIGHTS THE SOURCE OF TECH BUBBLE
    June 13, 2018
    MICROSOFT'S LACK OF REVENUE GROWTH HIGHLIGHTS THE SOURCE OF TECH BUBBLE  -- SOURCE: 06-06-18 EconMatters - "Tech Bubble 2.0" -- Microsoft`s recent purchase of GitHub for for 7.5 Billion in stock tells us a couple of things about financial markets right now. Namely, the number being discussed for GitHub was around 3 Billion, and Microsoft
  • THE FOUR STOCKS THAT ACCOUNT FOR OVER 2/3’s OF 2018 S&P TOTAL RETURNS
    June 13, 2018
    THE FOUR STOCKS THAT ACCOUNT FOR OVER 2/3's OF 2018 S&P TOTAL RETURNS -- EXTRACTED FROM: 05-16-18 ZeroHedge - "These 4 Stocks Account For Over Two-Thirds Of 2018's S&P Return" -- It's MANA that matters as just four stocks - Microsoft, Apple, Amazon, and Netflix - were responsible for over 68% of the S&P 500's total return
  • BoAML’S CREDIT INVESTORS ARE FREAKING OUT – WORRIED ABOUT EVERY RISK!
    June 11, 2018
    BoAML'S CREDIT INVESTORS ARE FREAKING OUT - WORRIED ABOUT EVERY RISK! Posted:Mon, 11 Jun 2018 14:10:44 -0400 -- SOURCE: 06-11-18 ZeroHedge - "Credit Investors Are Suddenly Freaking Out: BofA's Clients "Seem Equally Worried About Every Risk Right Now" -- While it may be the "week from hell", there is one specific event that stands out
  • RICKARDS: TROUBLE BREWING IN EM A WARNING TO A MINIMUM 30% EQUITY MARKET DECLINE
    June 8, 2018
    RICKARDS: TROUBLE BREWING IN EM A WARNING TO A MINIMUM 30% EQUITY MARKET DECLINE -- SOURCE: 06-06-18 James Rickards, Daily Reckoning - "Trouble Brewing in Emerging Markets"-- Emerging markets, EMs, have had an amazing run over the past two years. Moving in lock step with U.S. stock markets, the leading EM stock ETF has produced
  • GLOBAL WAVE HAS PEAKED FOR ONLY THE 10TH TIME IN 25 YEARS
    June 8, 2018
    GLOBAL WAVE HAS PEAKED FOR ONLY THE 10TH TIME IN 25 YEARS -- SOURCE: 06-02-18 ZeroHedge - "BofA Calls It: "The Global Wave Has Just Peaked For Only The Tenth Time In 25 Years" -- Speaking at an investor conference on Friday, JPM CEO Jamie Dimon again impressed the audience with his particular brand of optimism,
  • CORPORATE DEBT AS A PERCENTAGE OF GDP AT LEVELS ON EVERY PRIOR OCCASION A FINANCIAL CRISIS FOLLOWED
    June 7, 2018
    CORPORATE DEBT AS A PERCENTAGE OF GDP AT LEVELS ON EVERY PRIOR OCCASION A FINANCIAL CRISIS FOLLOWED As a percentage of GDP, corporate debt is at a level which on ever prior occasion, a financial crisis has
  • EMERGING MARKETS: PANIC WHEN BRAZILIAN REAL HITS 4 – IT WILL TRIGGER DELEVERAGING & CONTAGION ACROSS CREDIT PORTFOLIOS
    June 7, 2018
    EMERGING MARKETS: PANIC WHEN BRAZILIAN REAL HITS 4 - IT WILL TRIGGER DELEVERAGING & CONTAGION ACROSS CREDIT PORTFOLIOS -- SOURCE: 06-07-18 ZeroHedge - ""EM FX Never Lies" - BofA Warns As Brazilian Real Is Routed" -- Mohamed El-Erian warned overnight that Brazilian policy makers are "in quite a tricky position -- and there’s little room for
  • TURMOIL IN EMERGING MARKETS DUE TO EVAPORATION OF US$ FUNDING
    June 7, 2018
    TURMOIL IN EMERGING MARKETS DUE TO EVAPORATION OF US$ FUNDING -- SOURCE: 06-05-18 ZeroHedge - "Central Banker Observes Sudden "Evaporation" Of Dollar Funding, Warns Of Global Turmoil" -- Last October, just as the Fed started shrinking its balance sheet, we published yet another article on what is arguably the biggest threat to not only risk
  • SMART MONEY FLOW INDEX DROPS AS FAST & TO LEVELS NOT SEEN SINCE 2000 & 2008
    June 6, 2018
    SMART MONEY FLOW INDEX DROPS AS FAST & TO LEVELS NOT SEEN SINCE 2000 & 2008 -- SOURCE: 06-05-18- Palisade Research.com, Adam Tumerkan - "The Smart Money's Bailing As Market Complacency Surges" -- The Smart Money Flow Index (SMFI) is a leading-indicator in markets. That means when the SMFI drops sharply, usually the equity markets are right behind it. And we haven’t
  • US MEDICARE INSOLVENT IN 2026, SOCIAL SECURITY IN 2034
    June 6, 2018
    US MEDICARE INSOLVENT IN 2026, SOCIAL SECURITY IN 2034 --SOURCE: 06-06-18 ZeroHedge - "Medicare Will Be Insolvent In 2026, Sooner Than Expected; Social Security To Follow In 2034" -- Medicare's trust fund has just eight more years of solvency until 2026, and Social Security will be exhausted in 2034, according to Thursday projections by the trustees for the government programs.
  • 10Y UST FAIR MARKET VALUE MODEL: RATES 100 BASIS POINTS TOO LOW
    May 31, 2018
    10Y UST FAIR MARKET VALUE MODEL: RATES 100 BASIS POINTS TOO
  • GLOBAL FINANCIAL STRESS INDEX SURGES TOWARDS FEBRUARY HIGHS
    May 31, 2018
    GLOBAL FINANCIAL STRESS INDEX SURGES TOWARDS FEBRUARY HIGHS -- SOURCE: 05-31-18 ZeroHedge - "Global Financial Stress Index Back At February Highs" -- From Italy's political chaos to rising trade tensions, global markets have reasons to get into a spin... And as Bloomberg reports, that’s pushed Bank of America Merrill Lynch’s Global Financial Stress indicator to its highest level since the
  • EMERGING MARKET CAPITAL FLOWS v FED’S QE PROGRAM
    May 31, 2018
    EMERGING MARKET CAPITAL FLOWS v FED'S QE PROGRAM The substantial need of EM for external capital flows were supported by Fed QE. As we’ve already seen liquidity concerns coming out of China and now U.S Unfortunately for them, those flows could reverse putting pressure on their economies even without any pressure from fx and rates
  • LIQUIDITY VERSUS LAGGING S&P 500 & 10Y UST
    May 31, 2018
    LIQUIDITY VERSUS LAGGING S&P 500 & 10Y UST • At The Capital Observer, they look at the liquidity being issued or being absorbed back by global central banks, the Federal Reserve and the US Treasury (liquidity flows) and model the manner those real money balances impact asset prices • There is a long distributed lag
TIPPING POINTS

RISK CATEGORIES

Subscribers have access to the Tipping Point Risk Categories. Relevant research is organized within these and they provide an excellent place to start your due diligence.  These categories (and their contained research) are the start of Gordon’s Abstraction & Synthesis process that he employs to formulate his original thinking. It is also the primary “data base” for all research material used in various videos, articles etc.  Subscriber access only, the current Tipping Point Risk Categories are shown below.  

HIGHEST RISK

ELEVATED RISK

MODERATE RISK

LOW RISK