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RESEARCH – Tipping Points

  • ARAB LEAGUE HOLDS EMERGENCY SESSION: “IRAN & ‘TERRORIST’ HEZBOLLAH MUST BE STOPPED!”
    November 21, 2017
    ARAB LEAGUE HOLDS EMERGENCY SESSION: "IRAN & 'TERRORIST' HEZBOLLAH MUST BE STOPPED!"  -- SOURCE: 11-19-17 ZeroHedge - "Arab League Holds Emergency Session: Iran And "Terrorist" Hezbollah Must Be Stopped" -- Saudi Arabia's foreign minister, in opening remarks to the Arab League today, declared that the kingdom “will not hesitate to defend its national security to
  • MIDEAST TURMOIL: FOLLOW THE OIL, FOLLOW THE MONEY
    November 21, 2017
    MIDEAST TURMOIL: FOLLOW THE OIL, FOLLOW THE MONEY KEY TAKEAWAYS Time is running out for Saudi Arabia's free-spending royalty and state - and for all the other free-spending oil exporters, As a global recession looms ever closer, every oil exporter edges closer to the event horizon of financial, social, and political disorder and upheaval. Venezuela
  • JAPAN: ABE’S SUPER MAJORITY, RECORD EARNINGS & RELENTLESS BOJ BUYING
    November 20, 2017
    JAPAN: ABE'S SUPER MAJORITY, RECORD EARNINGS & RELENTLESS BOJ BUYING THE MATASII TAKEAWAY Further stimulus for Japan, Governor Kuroda is now more likely to serve another term at the BoJ (and therefore), A weaker JPY. With an aging population and trillions of dollars worth of pension promises about to come due, Japan's central planners have
  • JAPAN REACHES POWERFUL 1000 TRILLION YEN ($8.8T) IN FOREIGN ASSETS
    November 19, 2017
    JAPAN REACHES POWERFUL 1000 TRILLION YEN ($8.8T) IN FOREIGN ASSETS MATASII COMMENTS It is important to realize that the US Stock Market has been tracking the JPYUSD during major moves. The reason is because of the $8.8T size of Japanese foreign investable funds. During a potential financial crisis we can expect the YEN to rise.
  • BIG BANG BOMBSHELL: CHINA OPENS ITS FINANCIAL SECTOR TO FOREIGN OWNERSHIP CONTROL
    November 19, 2017
    BIG BANG BOMBSHELL: CHINA OPENS ITS FINANCIAL SECTOR TO FOREIGN OWNERSHIP CONTROL WHAT MATASII READERS NEED TO UNDERSTAND: China is now desperate for foreign Investment Capital Is this really a foreign bailout masked as investment? The Chinese Congress is over and it knows a slowdown is at hand which exposes under capitalized Chinese banks, Medium
  • CHARTING THE BIGGEST CHINESE RISKS TO WATCH
    November 19, 2017
    CHARTING THE BIGGEST CHINESE RISKS TO WATCH  -- SOURCE: 11-15-17 ZeroHedge - "The Complete Idiot's Guide To The Biggest Risks In China" -- With both commodities and Chinese stocks suffering sharp overnight drops, it is hardly surprising that today trading desks have quietly been sending out boxes full of xanax their best under-25 clients (those
  • CONSUMER CONFIDENCE HAS A CLEAR “HEAD & SHOULDERS” PATTERN
    November 10, 2017
    CONSUMER CONFIDENCE HAS A CLEAR "HEAD & SHOULDERS"
  • NFIB SMALL BUSINESS OPTIMISM INDEX APPEARS TO HAVE COMPLETED A “RIGHT SHOULDER”!
    November 10, 2017
    NFIB SMALL BUSINESS OPTIMISM INDEX APPEARS TO HAVE COMPLETED A "RIGHT
  • ACTIVE RISK MANAGERS (NAAIM) “GETTING OUT OF DODGE!”
    November 10, 2017
    ACTIVE RISK MANAGERS (NAAIM) "GETTING OUT OF DODGE!" The NAAIM Exposure Index represents the average exposure to US Equity markets reported by our members. It is important to recognize that the NAAIM Exposure Index is not predictive in nature and is of little value in attempting to determine what the stock market will do in the future.
  • BLOOMBERG CONSUMER COMFORT INDEX – FALLING
    November 10, 2017
    BLOOMBERG CONSUMER COMFORT INDEX - FALLING Initial Signs it is Turning Down READ WHY MATASII BELIEVE THIS INDEX IS IMPORTANT SENTIMENT: CONSUMER COMFORT CORRELATES WITH FORWARD S&P 500 PE WATCH US$ & CONSUMER COMFORT AS ECB’S OCTOBER 26TH MEETING APPROACHES! US CONSUMER COMFORT PLUNGES MOST IN 13 MONTHS AS “PERSONAL FINANCE” FEARS MOUNT Graphic Source:
  • WARNING: SOMETHING IS BROKEN IN THE HIGH YIELD & CREDIT MARKETS!
    November 10, 2017
    WARNING: SOMETHING IS BROKEN IN THE HIGH YIELD & CREDIT MARKETS! WE HAVE THE BEGINNINGS OF A DECOUPLING BETWEEN EQUITY & CREDIT RISK CHARTS TO WATCH: JNK (BELOW) and HYG   WHAT YOU NEED TO READ: Is The Junk Bond Bubble Bursting Before Your Very Eyes? 11-09-17 Heisenberg, The Chart That Everyone Is Talking About
  • 5 OF THE LAST 6 BEAR MARKETS WARNED WITH THIS SIGNAL INDICATOR – INCLUDING 2000 & 2008
    November 10, 2017
    5 OF THE LAST 6 BEAR MARKETS WARNED WITH THIS SIGNAL INDICATOR - INCLUDING 2000 & 2008 -- SOURCE: 11-09-17  Money - "This Stock Market Indicator Could Signal Big Trouble Ahead" -- Stocks have been delivering sizeable gains throughout the year with one big — or should we say small — exception. So far in
  • WHAT HISTORICAL DIVIDENDS, EARNINGS & VALUATIONS TELL US ABOUT FUTURE EXPECTATIONS
    November 9, 2017
    WHAT HISTORICAL DIVIDENDS, EARNINGS & VALUATIONS TELL US ABOUT FUTURE EXPECTATIONS -- SOURCE: 11-08-17 Michael Lebowitz  - "Three Easy Pieces" --  If someone told you that the President of the United States in 2028 would be a Democrat and a woman from the state of New York, could you guess who it might be? We highly
  • MARGIN-ADJUSTED CAPE SHOWS MARKET NOW MORE OVERVALUED THAN 1929 & 2000 EXTREMES!
    November 9, 2017
    MARGIN-ADJUSTED CAPE SHOWS MARKET NOW MORE OVERVALUED THAN 1929 & 2000 EXTREMES! Below is an extensive article by John Hussman "This Time Is Different, But Not How Investors Imagine It Is Different" laying out the current market Fundamentals and what they indicate going forward. SUMMARY Market valuations, on these measures, presently approach or exceed the 1929
  • S&P 500 OVERVALUED ON 18 OF 20 STANDARD VALUATION METRICS
    November 9, 2017
    S&P 500 OVERVALUED ON 18 OF 20 STANDARD VALUATION METRICS  -- SOURCE: 10-18-17 Goldman Sachs via ZeroHedge - "The S&P 500 Is Now Overvalued On 18 Of 20 Metrics" -- With the market now stuck in the "Icarus Rally" melt-up predicted earlier in the year by BofA Michael Hartnett, in which EFTs, algos and desperate carbon-based hedge
  • GEO-ECONOMICS: PETROYUAN – EVERYTHING YOU NEED TO KNOW ABOUT THE PETROYUAN
    October 28, 2017
    GEO-ECONOMICS: PETROYUAN - EVERYTHING YOU NEED TO KNOW ABOUT THE PETROYUAN  -- SOURCE : 10-27-17 ZeroHedge - "The World's New Reserve Currency? Everything You Need To Know About PetroYuan" -- Earlier this week, we pointed out that the 'PetroYuan' is on the verge of becoming reality with Graticule's Adam Levinson noting that the birth of a yuan-denominated
  • IMF WARNS CHINA OVER “DANGEROUS” GROWTH OF DEBT
    October 27, 2017
    IMF WARNS CHINA OVER "DANGEROUS" GROWTH OF DEBT -- SOURCE: 08-15-17 Guardian - "IMF warns China over 'dangerous' growth in debt" -- Washington-based fund says pursuit of growth at any cost risks sharp slowdown or financial crisis China’s credit-fuelled economic strategy has been branded as dangerous by the International Monetary Fund in a strongly-worded statement
  • WHY IS LEGENDARY INVESTOR WARREN BUFFETT HOLDING SO MUCH CASH?
    October 20, 2017
    WHY IS LEGENDARY INVESTOR WARREN BUFFETT HOLDING SO MUCH CASH? Legendary Investor Warren Buffett is presently holding unusually high levels of cash. The obvious question is why? A few weeks ago I published on Seeking Alpha an article entitled "Did Warren Buffett Actually State On CNBC That Stocks Are Fairly Valued?".  A further supporting proof
  • CHINA TO LIKELY FACE ECONOMIC & CREDIT HEADWINDS BY LATE 2018 – EARLY 2019
    October 16, 2017
    CHINA TO LIKELY FACE ECONOMIC & CREDIT HEADWINDS BY LATE 2018 - EARLY 2019  As reported previously, China CPI printed at 1.6% Y/Y, in line with expectations, and down from, 1.8% in August largely due to high year-over-year base effects, but it was PPI to come in smoking hot, jumping from 6.3% last month to
  • EXPECT A 2.5% CORRECTIVE SCARE BY THE END OF HINDENBURG OMEN EXPIRATION NOVEMBER 7th
    October 10, 2017
    EXPECT A 2.5% CORRECTIVE SCARE BY THE END OF HINDENBURG OMEN EXPIRATION NOVEMBER 7th Charts Courtesy of Lance Roberts - RealInvestmentAdvice.com The market is pushing very elevated levels currently. As shown below: With RSI (14) now above 70, The market 3-standard deviations above the 50-DMA, and The MACD over 13, in both previous cases over
  • INFLATION – FOCUS ON “CORE INFLATION”, NOT THE PCE MEASURE
    October 9, 2017
    INFLATION - FOCUS ON "CORE INFLATION", NOT THE PCE MEASURE SOURCE: 10-07-17 Bloomberg Brief  - Cameron Crise Watch out, traders, the real fed funds rate is about to turn positive for the first time since 2008. Or is it? That depends on which inflation measure you use. The bad news is that deflating the Fed funds
  • INFLATION – IT IS MUCH HIGHER THAN ADVERTISED!
    October 9, 2017
    INFLATION - IT IS MUCH HIGHER THAN ADVERTISED! So what the Federal Reserve is actually whining about is not low inflation--it's that high inflation isn't pushing wages higher like it's supposed to. In the simplistic models of conventional economics, inflation is supposed to be a monetary function, i.e. a generalized secular dynamic that pushes everything higher--not
  • THE EERIE MARKET COMPARISON TO 1987
    October 8, 2017
    THE EERIE MARKET COMPARISON TO 1987 I can't help but sense a strong comparison with the market today compare\d to 1987 - and this was before I saw the chart below. In 1987 the markets just kept rising despite all sorts of warnings and divergence from historical valuation metrics, There was a strong belief that
  • WHY THIS TECHNICAL DIVERGENCE IS IMPORTANT!
    October 8, 2017
    WHY THIS TECHNICAL DIVERGENCE IS IMPORTANT! Some technical divergences are more important than others! They all nevertheless are reliable technical warnings. This divergence of the S&P 500 with the G3 Central Bank Balance Sheet may be the most important you have seen in awhile! The G3 have been very clear regarding their policy shift to
  • EPS AT 2014 LEVELS WHEN MSCI WAS 15% LOWER – PROFITS YET TO EXCEED 2008 WHEN INDEX WAS 1/3 LOWER
    October 5, 2017
    EPS AT 2014 LEVELS WHEN MSCI WAS 15% LOWER - PROFITS YET TO EXCEED 2008 WHEN INDEX WAS 1/3 LOWER "EPS levels are merely back to where they stood in November 2014, when MSCI was 15% lower, and overall profits have yet to exceed 2008 levels when the index was a third lower."   -- SOURCE:
  • JPM’S QUANT WIZARD: “THIS IS WHAT THE NEXT  CRISIS WILL LOOK LIKE!”
    October 4, 2017
    JPM'S QUANT WIZARD: "THIS IS WHAT THE NEXT  CRISIS WILL LOOK LIKE!" In brief, JPM's Kolanovic believes that the next crisis - which he dubs the Great Liquidity Crisis -  will be defined by severe liquidity disruptions resulting from market developments since the last crisis, including: Decreased AUM of strategies that buy value assets Tail risk of private
  • PRICING OF RISK HAS STOPPED BEING CONNECTED TO REALITY – EVIDENCE: EU JUNK BONDS
    October 4, 2017
    PRICING OF RISK HAS STOPPED BEING CONNECTED TO REALITY - EVIDENCE: EU JUNK BONDS -- SOURCE: 10-02-17 wolf Richter - "The Pricing of Risk is Kaput" -- US Treasury Yield v. Euro “Junk Bond” Yield. A new record in central-bank engineered absurdity.  US Treasury Securities with longer maturities fell this morning, with the 10-year Treasury yield rising
  • JAPAN IS FAR MORE ADVANCED IN FULLY MONETIZING ITS DEBT BY UTILIZING MULTIPLE ASSET CLASSES – GOAL IS PER-CAPITA INCOME v ECONOMIC GROWTH
    October 3, 2017
    JAPAN IS FAR MORE ADVANCED IN FULLY MONETIZING ITS DEBT BY UTILIZING MULTIPLE ASSET CLASSES - GOAL IS PER-CAPITA INCOME v ECONOMIC GROWTH Japan is far more advanced in fully monetizing its debt by utilizing multiple asset classes, from bonds to equities.  -- SOURCE; 09-23-17 By Viktor Shvets of Macquarie Capital - "Japan Has No Illusions
  • CREDIT: WHAT CATALYST COULD TRIGGER A CREDIT RISK-OFF EVENT?
    October 3, 2017
    CREDIT: WHAT CATALYST COULD TRIGGER A CREDIT RISK-OFF EVENT?  -- SOURCE: 09-21-17 ZeroHedge -  "What Catalyst Could Trigger A Credit Risk-Off Event? Here's The UBS Answer" -- "What is THE catalyst?" As all traders know, and as UBS repeats this morning in a new report by credit strategist Matthew Mish, one if not the mostly
  • “HUMPTY DUMPTY” LIKELY TO ARRIVE WITH “SELL ON THE NEWS” SENATE APPROVAL OF FINAL TAX REFORM LEGISLATION
    October 2, 2017
    "HUMPTY DUMPTY" LIKELY TO ARRIVE WITH "SELL ON THE NEWS" SENATE APPROVAL OF FINAL TAX REFORM LEGISLATION Below are the various reasons why the BofA's chief investment strategist Michael Hartnett (who coined the term "Icarus Rally") expects the long-overdue market top is just around the corner. Global stock market cap up a massive $18.5tn (= US
TIPPING POINTS

TIPPING POINTS

From Gordon's process of Abstraction & Synthesis, Global Macro Research is organized in to categories or TIPPING POINTS, which are ranked within Risk Levels. From these Gordon is able to connect the dots and formulate his Thesis, Themes, MATA and other conclusions. Here are a few recent TIPPING POINTS - see what Gordon is reading and considering significant. Check back often as these are updated regularly.