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SII: STRATEGIC INVESTMENT INSIGHTS

  • “CUP & HANDLE” WARNING OF BOND SELLING & A 3.5% 10Y UST
    February 18, 2018
    "CUP & HANDLE" WARNING OF BOND SELLING & A 3.5% 10Y UST -- SOURCE: Sven Henrich via NorthmanTrader.com  The 10 year has broken out of its cup and handle pattern:   The pattern incidentally targets 3.5% and that is way above Gundlach’s panic moment for
  • LARGEST GLOBAL HEDGE FUND TAKES GIGANTIC SELECTIVE EU BANK & ENERGY SHORT POSITIONS
    February 10, 2018
    LARGEST GLOBAL HEDGE FUND TAKES GIGANTIC SELECTIVE EU BANK & ENERGY SHORT POSITIONS Ray Dalio - Bridgewater Last October, Italy's government was angry when the world's largest hedge fund, Ray Dalio's Bridgewater unveiled it had amassed a sizable  $713 million short against Italian financial stocks, its biggest disclosed bearish bet in Europe. Then last week,
  • MATASII: 10 UST YIELD ~2.85 June 2018
    February 2, 2018
    MATASII: 10 UST YIELD ~2.85 June
  • OVER-LEVERAGED HY ENERGY BONDS WILL LIKELY IGNITE THE NEXT CREDIT CONTRACTION AS ROLLOVERS BEGIN
    January 7, 2018
    OVER-LEVERAGED HY ENERGY BONDS WILL LIKELY IGNITE THE NEXT CREDIT CONTRACTION AS ROLLOVERS BEGIN ,MATASII BACKDROP CHARTS TO SRSOCCO REPORT (Below Bottom)  Morgan Stanley wealth just took their high yield allocation to zero!  In a note explaining the move, CIO Mike Wilson said the following: While the tax cuts just enacted in the U.S. may
  • BONDS & CREDIT SIGNAL 2018 US DOLLAR DIRECTION
    December 29, 2017
    BONDS & CREDIT SIGNAL 2018 US DOLLAR DIRECTION -- SOURCE: 12-27-17 Tom Luongo  "Trump Tax Cuts – The Spark That Burns Down the EU" -- ....  as always, you have to look to the sovereign bond and credit markets to see what’s coming. The Yield’s the Thing… There are a couple of articles on Zerohedge this
  • DOLLAR FUNDING COSTS (FX HEDGING COSTS) SURGE – “BASIS SWAPS” WILL POTENTIALLY CURTAIL UST DEMAND
    December 27, 2017
    DOLLAR FUNDING COSTS (FX HEDGING COSTS) SURGE - "BASIS SWAPS" WILL POTENTIALLY CURTAIL UST DEMAND  -- SOURCE: 12-27-17 ZeroHedge - "In An Unexpected Outcome, Trump Tax Reform Just Blew Up The Treasury Market" -- Over the past week we have shown on several occasions that there once again appears to be a sharp, sudden dollar-funding
  • CREDIT RISK TRANSFER (CRT) BONDS THE NEW “BIG THING” FOR BOND YIELDS
    December 27, 2017
    CREDIT RISK TRANSFER (CRT) BONDS THE NEW "BIG THING" FOR BOND YIELDS Floating Rate, Credit Risk Transfer (CRT) Bonds among best-performing debt of year (>10% v 7.2% HY & 5.9% IG), Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac said they probably will sell around $13 billion of credit-risk transfer securities in their main programs in 2018, Planned tax
  • SII AUTO – REPOSSESSIONS & USED CAR DEPRECIATION RATES ADDING TO GROWING USED CAR GLUT
    December 24, 2017
    SII AUTO - REPOSSESSIONS & USED CAR DEPRECIATION RATES ADDING TO GROWING USED CAR GLUT -- SOURCE: 12-21-17 Ethan Gaines, A Cold War Relic Blogspot - "What's Going On?" -- I love selling -cars, the industry gave me a purpose after the shitty experience of being a corporate cog. But I’m truly starting to fear the
  • PRIVATE EQUITY FIRMS ABOUT TO GET CRUSHED ON SUBPRIME AUTO BETS
    December 21, 2017
    PRIVATE EQUITY FIRMS ABOUT TO GET CRUSHED ON SUBPRIME AUTO BETS  -- SOURCE: 12-21-17 ZeroHedge - "These PE Firms Are About To Get Crushed By Their Subprime Auto Bets" -- In the aftermath of the 'great recession,' private equity firms placed massive bets on subprime auto finance companies with the typical "thesis" going something like
  • COBALT TOP PERFORMING 2017 COMMODITY FOLLOWING LITHIUM’S 2016 PERFORMANCE
    December 21, 2017
    COBALT TOP PERFORMING 2017 COMMODITY FOLLOWING LITHIUM'S 2016 PERFORMANCE Commodity producers are expected to enjoy a happy holiday this year as synchronized global growth supports robust industrial demand just as many commodities are coming to the end of their investment cycle in new output capacity. While most commodities fared well through 2017, out-performers such as
  • IMF WARNS: EM DEBT NEAR POTENTIAL TIPPING POINT DUE TO SIZE OF LOOMING ROLLOVERS
    December 21, 2017
    IMF WARNS: EM DEBT NEAR POTENTIAL TIPPING POINT DUE TO SIZE OF LOOMING ROLLOVERS Tighter policy to sap funding pool for emerging nations Half of total external debt stock of EM issuers due by 2022  -- SOURCE: 12-19-17 Bloomberg - "IMF Warns One of Most Crowded Bond Trades Near Tipping Point" -- It’s one of
  • UST SUPPLY ABOUT TO NEARLY DOUBLE – YIELDS INCREASING DEPENDENT ON FOREIGN DEMAND
    December 21, 2017
    UST SUPPLY ABOUT TO NEARLY DOUBLE - YIELDS INCREASING DEPENDENT ON FOREIGN DEMAND -- SOURCE: 12-19-17  Bloomberg - "U.S. Treasury Sales Are About to Double 2018. Who's Buying?" -- Onus may shift to price-sensitive investors like hedge funds If central banks step back, that could mean higher yields With the U.S. about to sell the most debt
  • COMMODITIES LIKELY A BIG STORY IN 2018
    December 14, 2017
    COMMODITIES LIKELY A BIG STORY IN 2018 BIG REVERSAL As the Bank of International Settlements (BIS) initially identified and Charles Hugh Smith and I laid out in the Macro Analytics video: "The Results of Financialization - Part III - The Big Reversal", we are at the beginnings of what could be labeled as the "Big
  • NEW PLAYERS & APPROACHES EMERGE TO SUPPLY COBALT
    December 1, 2017
    NEW PLAYERS & APPROACHES EMERGE TO SUPPLY COBALT STOCKS TO WATCH American Manganese Inc. Umicore British tech startups Aceleron and Powervault Ltd.   Recycling techniques can draw metal from lithium-ion batteries New source could meet 10% of car industry’s metal needs -- SOURCE: 12-01-17 Bloomberg - "How to Mine Cobalt Without Going to Congo" --
  • ELECTRIC VEHICLE BOOM RAPIDLY CHANGING EQUATION FOR COBALT
    December 1, 2017
    ELECTRIC VEHICLE BOOM RAPIDLY CHANGING EQUATION FOR COBALT 'Cobalt for cobalt's sake': Electric vehicle boom changing the equation for a mining byproduct Shares of First Cobalt have doubled in value since the company received shareholder approval for a three-way merger A sign for the Cobalt Mining Museum is displayed in Cobalt, Ont. Global demand for cobalt,
  • GLOBAL LITHIUM BATTERY STOCKS: ABLEMARLE v FMC
    November 29, 2017
    GLOBAL LITHIUM BATTERY STOCKS: ABLEMARLE v FMC Lithium Stock Face Off: Is ALB More Attractive Than FMC? SOURCE: Zacks Equity ResearchNovember 22, 2017 F GM TSLA NAV ALB FMC Lithium stocks are firing on all cylinders, thanks to rising demand for lithium-ion batteries that are used to power electric cars. These rechargeable batteries are used
  • SII: COMMODITIES, ENERGY – GAINING UPWARD MOMENTUM
    November 1, 2017
    US equity futures have hit a new records, helped by surging Asian and European stocks which have all started November on a euphoric note. Surging commodity prices, optimism about tax reform and hope for a new dovish Fed chair all combined to drive global stock markets to record highs, with the MSCI’s world stock index
  • SII: COMMODITIES – THE NATURAL CHALLENGES FOR EV – COBALT, LITHIUM & NICKEL
    October 31, 2017
    SII: COMMODITIES - THE NATURAL CHALLENGES FOR EV - COBALT, LITHIUM & NICKEL -- SOURCE:  10-20-17 RealVison.com  The Hack Nickel is a base metal that is used in variety of industrial applications. It is added to steel for corrosion resistance, Often used for its bright and lustrous appearance in coins, jewelry, etc. Used in batteries, such
  • SII: COMMODITIES – ELECTRIC VEHICLES – COBALT SQUEEZE
    October 31, 2017
    SII: COMMODITIES - ELECTRIC VEHICLES - COBALT SQUEEZE Electric vehicles - Resources squeeze With the Tesla revolution and bullish forecasts for EV sales blanketing the media, the future looks bright for a cleaner, quieter future in autos. However, with predictions of a rise in the global EV fleet from 600k today to 65 million by 2040,
  • SII: COMMODITIES – THE EV REVOLUTION – LITHIUM INVESTING
    October 31, 2017
    SII: COMMODITIES - THE EV REVOLUTION - LITHIUM INVESTING The EV Revolution? - The trouble with Lithium investing The rise of electric vehicles has been nothing short of spectacular. Just a decade ago, few could have imagined the level of interest from major manufacturers in producing EVs. Much of the credit goes to Tesla – their

SII: STRATEGIC INVESTMENT INSIGHTS – 2017 SII OVERVIEW