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SII: STRATEGIC INVESTMENT INSIGHTS

  • SII RETAIL: ARE GROCERY CHAINS AN EMERGING PROBLEM AS THEY ARE POTENTIALLY “AMAZONED”?
    September 3, 2017
    SII RETAIL: ARE GROCERY CHAINS AN EMERGING PROBLEM AS THEY ARE POTENTIALLY "AMAZONED"?  -- SOURCE: 09-02-17 ZeroHedge - "Are Grocery Chains About To Join The Retail-Bankruptcy Bloodbath?" -- Amazon officially assumed control of Whole Foods Market on Monday and by noon, channel checks at WFM stores revealed that its new tech overlords had already slashed prices by
  • DISPOSABLE VERSUS DISCRETIONARY INCOME OF BOTTOM 80 PERCENTILE DOOMS US RETAIL TO SECULAR STAGNATION!
    September 3, 2017
    DISPOSABLE VERSUS DISCRETIONARY INCOME OF BOTTOM 80 PERCENTILE DOOMS US RETAIL TO SECULAR
  • DHS SELECTS 4 CONTRACTORS TO BUILD PROTOTYPES FOR TRUMP’S BORDER WALL
    September 1, 2017
    DHS SELECTS 4 CONTRACTORS TO BUILD PROTOTYPES FOR TRUMP'S BORDER WALL  -- SOURCE: 08-31-17 ZeroHedge - "DHS Selects 4 Contractors To Build Prototypes For Trump's Border Wall" -- The Department of Homeland Security has finally reached a decision in the long-delayed process of selecting contractors who will build prototypes of President Donald Trump’s promised border wall. The
  • SII RETAIL AUTO: AT ~1M, HARVEY MAY HAVE WRECKED MORE VEHICLES THAN ANY NATURAL DISASTER IN US HISTORY!
    September 1, 2017
    SII RETAIL AUTO: AT ~1M, HARVEY MAY HAVE WRECKED MORE VEHICLES THAN ANY NATURAL DISASTER IN US HISTORY! The Harvey region represents about 30% to 40% of Texas sales, which account for up to 9% of U.S. sales, according to Barclays. -- SOURCE: 08-31-17 USA TODAY - "Harvey may have wrecked up to 1M cars
  • HOW MUCH ‘HARVEY’ DAMAGE CAN INSURERS FACE BEFORE THEY CRACK?
    August 30, 2017
    HOW MUCH 'HARVEY' DAMAGE CAN INSURERS FACE BEFORE THEY CRACK?  -- SOURCE; 08-28-17 ZeroHedge -  "How Much Harvey Damage Can Insurers Face Before They Crack?" -- Hurricane Harvey has unleashed unparalleled devastation on southwest Texas, flooding Houston, the fourth largest city in the US, and many towns along the Gulf coast from Galveston, to Port
  • SII: IS HARVEY THE $500B CATALYST THAT CRUSHES IMPERILED INSURERS?
    August 30, 2017
    SII: IS HARVEY THE $500B CATALYST THAT CRUSHES IMPERILED INSURERS?  -- SOURCE: 08-29-17 ZeroHedge - "Insurance Companies Could Face Staggering $500 Billion Loss During A Crisis-Like Downturn" -- Here’s one more example of how central banks’ global coordinated monetary stimulus in the wake of the financial crisis has increased systemic risk in the US: According
  • CMI Cummins IDEA
    August 28, 2017
    CMI has recently broken through a long term weekly channel that had contained the market during its lift through 2016-17.  This may be the warning or the start of a bigger move down or just a correction to the large lift since 2016.  Significant supports are near by and we will be watching to see
  • MLM Martin Marietta Materials IDEA
    August 28, 2017
    The weekly chart on the left shows a potential double top for MLM.  The latest drop has moved the market to the s/r of the previous pattern, where we can see on the daily chart (right) that it has just broken through.  Watching to see if support is found here, or if it will continue
  • SII RETAIL AUTO: SLOWING SUV SALES COULD SIGNAL A TURN IN THE MARKET
    August 28, 2017
    SII RETAIL AUTO: SLOWING SUV SALES COULD SIGNAL A TURN IN THE MARKET -- SOURCE: 08-25-17 WSJ - "Slowing SUV Sales Could Signal a Turn in the Market" -- Vehicles account for 20% of retail spending. A crash or even a significant slowdown will impact retail sales and thus GDP. Reasons to Expect a Crash
  • USCR U.S. Concrete IDEA
    August 26, 2017
    USCR has recently pulled back and and is approaching the weekly 34ma (left chart, pink ma). This offers potential opportunity for the market to bounce from the 34ma and lift to the UBB, or break through and drop to the LBB.  Note that these BB's are roughly aligning with recent market highs and the lows
  • SII INFRASTRUCTURE: MATASII PORTFOLIO IS NOW LONG ONLY MEXICO WALL CONTRACTORS
    August 26, 2017
    SII INFRASTRUCTURE: MATASII PORTFOLIO IS NOW LONG ONLY MEXICO WALL CONTRACTORS   MATASII INFRASTRUCTURE IS FOCUSED ONLY ON MEXICAN WALL SUPPLIERS IN THE SHORT TERM! WHY? For Trump's wall, Mexico is out! Government shutdown is in! CNN-Aug 23, 2017 Now, instead of threatening Mexico, Trump is threatening a government shutdown if Congress doesn't make US taxpayers open their coffers to ... Democrats rip Trump's government shutdown threat for 'immoral
  • SII RETAIL: DETERIORATING TECHNICALS IS ABOUT BROKE PEOPLE – NOT JUST AMAZON!
    August 25, 2017
    SII RETAIL: DETERIORATING TECHNICALS IS ABOUT BROKE PEOPLE - NOT JUST AMAZON! The Longer Term chart of the Dow Jones US Retail Index with its very evident "Head & Shoulders" pattern is sending a clear signal of what may lie ahead. The steady deterioration in US Retail has been occurring for some time but now
  • SII-RETAIL: COACH PLUMMETS 15% ON REVENUE MISS AND FORWARD GUIDANCE
    August 18, 2017
    SII-RETAIL: COACH PLUMMETS 15% ON REVENUE MISS AND FORWARD GUIDANCE Why Coach Stock Plunged despite Profit Beat Coach’s stock price plummeted 15% in reaction to the top-line miss and a pessimistic guidance for fiscal 2018 guidance. Coach reported adjusted diluted earnings of $0.50 per share, beating the Wall Street average profit estimate by $0.01. Coach’s
  • JCI Johnson Controls International IDEA
    August 16, 2017
    The weekly view of JCI shows the market has reached previous high levels (left edge of left chart), and may be putting in a potential double top (left chart, current).  The lift from JCI sine 2003 has done so in a contracting wedge: a break of the pattern could offer opportunity. IF we do see
  • MGA Magna International Inc. IDEA
    August 16, 2017
    Watching for expected weakness in the auto sectors, the current technical set-up for MGA is below.   A potential double top can be seen on the weekly chart (left), with the market then dropping off in to 2016.  Since then a slightly contracting wedge consolidation has developed: breaking this structure offers potnetial opportunities.  Solid orange
  • SII RETAIL: WORST PERFORMING Q2 EARNINGS SECTOR
    August 14, 2017
    SII RETAIL: WORST PERFORMING Q2 EARNINGS SECTOR GETTING UGLY IN RETAIL (As our SII Focus has been expected)   Retailer Rout returned with earnings...   For the worst week since Dec
  • SII-RETAIL: RETAIL ROUT RETURNS WITH Q2 EARNINGS (BUT DON’T BLAME AMAZON)
    August 14, 2017
    SII-RETAIL: RETAIL ROUT RETURNS WITH Q2 EARNINGS (BUT DON'T BLAME AMAZON)  --SOURCE: 08-13-17 MishTalk - Mish Shedlock - "Retail Rout Returns (But Don't Blame Amazon)" -- JCPenney announced a $62 million dollar loss for the quarter. With the announcement, its share price plunged 16% breaking the $4 barrier for the first time. Stocks under $5 are
  • SII – AUTO: THE FINAL NAIL IN HERTZ’S COFFIN – A FLAWED FLEET DEPRECIATION MIX
    August 14, 2017
    SII - AUTO: THE FINAL NAIL IN HERTZ'S COFFIN - A FLAWED FLEET DEPRECIATION MIX --SOURCE: 08-14-17  Authored by Daniel Ruiz via Blinders Off blog - "Hertz - The Final Nail In The Coffin" -- As a disciplinarian in the automotive sector, my focal point is concentrated on the study of used vehicle values and how they
  • COL Outcomes & Performance +18.6%
    August 13, 2017
    Back in January we posted a few ideas in our Defense SII; below is the original post for COL and the current market (2017/08/13).  A break out of the  long term weekly channel (solid orange highlight) shows a possible gain of 18.6%.  More could have been possible from a break of the riskier orange dashed
  • AVIS PLUNGES ON HUGE MISS – MARGIN COLLAPSE – GUIDANCE CUT – “OVER-FLEETING”
    August 13, 2017
    AVIS PLUNGES ON HUGE MISS - MARGIN COLLAPSE - GUIDANCE CUT - "OVER-FLEETING"  -- SOURCE: 07-13-17 ZeroHedge - "The Uber Effect: Avis Plunges On Huge Miss, Margin Collapse, Guidance Cut, "Over-Fleeting" -- While the growing woes facing the auto sector are well-known by now (see "Carmageddon: Ford & GM Sales Tank Despite Record July Incentive

SII: STRATEGIC INVESTMENT INSIGHTS – 2017 SII OVERVIEW