New Main ALL Logo 2

Welcome to MATASII Macro Analytics & Technical Analysis Strategic Investment Insights

PUBLIC content updated regularly. Some of our subscribers content is released for public consumption, bookmark us as part of your due diligence. 

Original Global Macro & Technical Analysis methods and techniques combined for unique insights, perspectives and world leading analysis.

Subscribe for full content: complete your due diligence and gain access to our Market Research, Strategic Investment Insights, and Investment & Trading Ideas.

SYNTHESIS & FOCUS

  • THE US$, 10Y UST, YIELD CURVE AND TRUMP APPROVAL RATING ARE HIGHLY CORRELATED
    September 13, 2017
    THE US$, 10Y UST, YIELD CURVE AND TRUMP APPROVAL RATING ARE HIGHLY CORRELATED The US Dollar and 10 Y US Treasury has become a "close correlation trade" But Also Remember Trump's Approval Rating is Closely Tracking the US$ As well as the US Treasury Yield Curve A possible rise in the US$, despite lower UST
  • YIELD MOVES ARE NOW GLOBAL, MORE THAN EVER
    September 13, 2017
    Sovereign bond yields are really one big market in the current era. Different central banks are having different types of inflation or deflation fights all the time and are varying states of the stimulate-normalize-hike cycle at any given time. But this is swamped by the ability of global portfolio managers to allocate capital all over
  • WATCH US$ & CONSUMER COMFORT AS ECB’S OCTOBER 26TH MEETING APPROACHES!
    September 8, 2017
    WATCH US$ & CONSUMER COMFORT AS ECB'S OCTOBER 26TH MEETING APPROACHES! Unless you have been living under a rock you are well aware of what has been driving markets higher during the "Bull Market" and more recently, holding markets up. But all of this is in the process of changing as the Central Bank "PUT"
  • SENTIMENT: CONSUMER COMFORT CORRELATES WITH FORWARD S&P 500 PE
    September 2, 2017
    SENTIMENT: CONSUMER COMFORT CORRELATES WITH FORWARD S&P 500 PE In my recent editorial entitled "WHAT WE KEEP FORGETTING ABOUT MARKET EUPHORIA & GREED" I outlined that in the Short Term the market reacts to Sentiment. The following research by Dr Ed Yardeni shows how closely (bottom chart) the Consumer Comfort Index in fact tracks the
  • EXPECT A FLIGHT TO SAFETY SCARE IN Q4 ( 10 y UST ~ 2.85) BEFORE HEADING LONG TERM < 1%
    September 1, 2017
    EXPECT A FLIGHT TO SAFETY SCARE IN Q4 ( 10 y UST ~ 2.85) BEFORE HEADING LONG TERM < 1% At MATASII we have been strong in OUR "UnderTheLens" and "LONGWave" videos that we see 10 Y UST rates below 1% long term. We have more recently felt (in our IDEA posts ) that a
  • WHAT FINANCIAL CONDITIONS TELL US ABOUT THE US INVESTMENT & BUSINESS CYCLE
    August 25, 2017
    WHAT FINANCIAL CONDITIONS TELL US ABOUT THE US INVESTMENT & BUSINESS CYCLE  -- SOURCE: 08-24-17 FFWiley  - "What Financial Conditions Tell Us (Two Charts & A Prediction)" -- It seems every bank, including central banks, publishes a financial conditions index these days. And because financial conditions typically lead the economy, it makes sense to track them. In
  • TRUMP IS HURTING THE USD, BUT AIDING THE CHINESE YUAN
    August 24, 2017
    TRUMP IS HURTING THE USD, BUT AIDING THE CHINESE YUAN -- SOURCE: 08-24-17 Bloomberg -- It hasn’t been the best of years for yuan bears. China’s currency has gained 4.2% year to date. The yuan has found support from an unexpected source — President Donald Trump. Political turmoil in the U.S. has dented the dollar, with
  • US BUSINESS CYCLE: IN “LATE CYCLE”: OXFORD ECONOMICS’ REAL CORPORATE PROFITS
    August 24, 2017
    US BUSINESS CYCLE: IN "LATE CYCLE":  OXFORD ECONOMICS' REAL CORPORATE PROFITS Oxford Economics Ltd. macro strategist Gaurav Saroliya points to another red flag for U.S. equity bulls. The gross value-added of non-financial companies after inflation -- a measure of the value of goods after adjusting for the costs of production -- is now negative on
  • WHAT WE KEEP FORGETTING ABOUT MARKET EUPHORIA & GREED
    August 22, 2017
    WHAT WE KEEP FORGETTING ABOUT MARKET EUPHORIA & GREED I am sure you have seen various versions of this chart many times before. What I can tell you about this chart is that it will always get you out too early and in too late!  What is missing is an understanding of how markets actually transition. Let
  • FOMC SIGNALS CONCERN ABOUT SHORT TERM INFLATION WEAKNESS
    August 17, 2017
    FOMC SIGNALS CONCERN ABOUT SHORT TERM INFLATION WEAKNESS JULY FOMC MINUTES The most notable takeaway was the reference to “most participants expected inflation to pick up over the next couple of years….and to stabilize around the 2% objective over the medium term”. However, many participants “saw some likelihood that inflation might remain below 2% for longer
  • EASY CREDIT & COVENANT-LITE LOANS GIVES WAY AS USUAL TO DELINQUENCIES AND DEFAULTS
    July 30, 2017
    EASY CREDIT & COVENANT-LITE LOANS GIVES WAY AS USUAL TO DELINQUENCIES AND DEFAULTS EASY CREDIT DIDN'T END WITH THE TERMINATION OF QE NOR FED RATE HIKES GAVE WAY TO INCREASING EASY FINANCIAL CONDITIONS FED RATE HIKES ARE LIKE TAKING A KNIFE TO A GUN FIGHT! NOWHERE MORE APPARENT  The Easy Credit is now available Globally. It is
  • HAS FED LOST CONTROL? PE RATIO EXPANDS WHILE FED TIGHTENS?
    July 27, 2017
    HAS FED LOST CONTROL? PE RATIO EXPANDS WHILE FED TIGHTENS? Stocks usually go up. What doesn’t usually happen is that stock valuations swell at the time the Federal Reserve raises interest rates? But that’s what’s happening now! New research from Bernstein highlights that rarity of tightening cycles that are accompanied by expanding price-earnings ratios in
  • HAS FED LOST CONTROL? FINANCIAL CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO EASE!
    July 26, 2017
    HAS FED LOST CONTROL? FINANCIAL CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO EASE! ACCORDING TO BLOOMBERG:  Further easing in financial conditions will continue to fuel the Fed’s concerns that financial distortions are developing. Despite the 100 basis points of tightening thus far in the cycle, the Bloomberg Financial Conditions Index has matched the peak reached in July 2014 —
  • WEAK DOLLAR MAY BE THE EARNINGS BOOST REQUIRED TO KEEP THE MARKET LEVITATED LONGER?
    July 26, 2017
    WEAK DOLLAR MAY BE THE EARNINGS BOOST REQUIRED TO KEEP THE MARKET LEVITATED LONGER? The U.S. dollar, down 8 percent this year, will probably weaken further, according to Morgan Stanley. That’s primarily good news for American stock investors. The greenback may finish 2017 down 13 percent, handing S&P 500 companies a 6.5 percent boost to their
  • MARKET EXPOSURE: COMMODITIES & CENTRAL BANK POLICY SHIFT
    July 17, 2017
    MARKET EXPOSURE: COMMODITIES & CENTRAL BANK POLICY SHIFT Citi's Jeremy Hale notes, forward expectations of earnings for current year and next year in the US are holding up reasonably well compared to previous years (Figure 4, top LHS), however the real question is what happens in Q3/Q4?  BofA's Michael Hartnett said earlier this week  "the
  • FALLING US MACRO DATA & ATLANTA FED GDPNow FORECAST
    July 17, 2017
    FALLING US MACRO DATA & ATLANTA FED GDPNow FORECAST Current EPS Forecasts for Q3 and Q4 2017 Require Economic Growth - Not Falling GDP & Economic Activity!
  • FEW REMAINING BEARS ARE BEING SHOT!
    July 17, 2017
    FEW REMAINING BEARS ARE BEING SHOT! More people that are shorting the market in the near term are being forced to immediately cover once their narrow stop losses were triggered. As JPM's Prime Broker Service showed last week, the amount of short covering just hit a YTD high. As of this week, the short interest
  • THE GLOBAL COMMODITY CYCLE – WHERE WE ARE NOW
    June 21, 2017
    THE GLOBAL COMMODITY CYCLE - WHERE WE ARE NOW -- SOURCE  06-20-17 ZeroHedge -- "The Global Commodity Cycle: Where Are We Now" -- Macquarie's economists are turning more pessimistic. In their latest Global Macro Outlook note, the Australian bank warns that the global economy's recent "coordinated" growth has peaked, which will have implications for all
  • ONLY THE CENTRAL BANKS ARE NOW LEFT TO BUY
    June 12, 2017
    ONLY THE CENTRAL BANKS ARE NOW LEFT TO BUY Negative free cash balances are screaming about the risk from investors having piled on the highest levels of leverage in market history. Additionally, a look at the stock-to-cash ratios suggests there is very little available current buying power available from investors. Each month, the Investment Company Institute
  • JAMES RICKARDS: CHINA’S GOLD STRATEGY UNMASKED
    May 28, 2017
    JAMES RICKARDS: CHINA'S GOLD STRATEGY UNMASKED  -- SOURCE:  05-27-17 Daily Reckoning - James Rickards - "The Golden Conspiracy" -- Is there gold price manipulation going on? Absolutely. There’s no question about it. That’s not just an opinion. There is statistical evidence piling up to make the case, in addition to anecdotal evidence and forensic evidence.
  • HISTORIC COLLAPSE IN MARKET BREADTH
    May 15, 2017
    HISTORIC COLLAPSE IN MARKET BREADTH We are witnessing a startling breakdown in market breadth. It is worse than both prior to the 1987 and  2000 market draw downs. Similar to the Dotcom Bubble when it finally burst in 2000, it is being held up by a hand full of stocks which were referred to in 2000 as
  • EURODOLLAR SHORTAGE IS CRIPPLING GLOBAL CREDIT GROWTH
    April 16, 2017
    EURODOLLAR SHORTAGE IS CRIPPLING GLOBAL CREDIT GROWTH When the Shanghai Accord was launched the US Dollar needed to be taken down from a level approaching 117 based on the BIS's REER.   The "trend line" suggested this was a global limit to the Us Dollar's strength which has previously forced or triggered major adjustments in
  • MARGIN DEBT: HISTORICALLY DECLINES FOR ~3 MO BEFORE MARKETS DECLINE
    April 13, 2017
    MARGIN DEBT: HISTORICALLY DECLINES FOR ~3 MO BEFORE MARKETS DECLINE -- ABSTRACTED FROM: 04-04-17   Lance Roberts via RealInvestmentAdvice.com,  "Margin Debt Hits Record, Nothing To Worry About?" Currently, margin debt is still rising as the “fear of missing out” on potential upside in the market is trumping longer-term logic of risk management and portfolio controls. However,
  • RISK MITIGATION: LIQUIDITY, CUSTODIAL & COUNTER PARTY RISK
    April 6, 2017
    RISK MITIGATION: LIQUIDITY, CUSTODIAL & COUNTER PARTY RISK As the markets have exploded into the new world of passive investing via ETFs and Robo-Advisors, few fully comprehend the new stealth areas of risk.  Risk Mitigation plans in the areas of Liquidity, Custodial and Counter Party Risk may currently be central to your financial survival if a
  • S&P 500 FORWARD PE v VIX RATIO
    April 5, 2017
    S&P 500 FORWARD PE v VIX RATIO The Financial Times in London identifies the S&P 500 Forward PE to VIX Ratio as something to pay particular attention to when considering just how expensive the US Equity Market has become. The S&P 500 Forward PE to VIX Ratio is presently at highs only seen prior to
  • CONSUMER CONFIDENCE AT 15 YEAR HIGH
    March 10, 2017
    CONSUMER CONFIDENCE AT 15 YEAR HIGH We have a matching downward trend in both Consumer Confidence Regression and the GDP Regression over the last 40 years. The Head and Shoulders pattern is reflective of a topping pattern as the public is losing confidence in the "American Dream" and economic future. Previous highs in Consumer Confidence
  • A TIGHTER YEN – GOLD CORRELATION HAS EMERGED
    February 15, 2017
    A TIGHTER YEN - GOLD CORRELATION HAS EMERGED This became an increasingly tighter correlation after the ECB, BOJ & BOE Began Injecting $200B/Mo. With the "Trump Rally" it has become an "Extreme
  • KEY FOCUS: CHINA POTENTIALLY THREATENS A NEAR TERM US TREASURY SHORT SQUEEZE!
    January 7, 2017
    Problems in China are looming on top of an already very tenuous and misunderstood situation in the US Financial Markets. Additionally, Federal Reserve Policy has made the situation even more combustible! As a result of a Trump Victory inspired bond market massacre there are now few places that a yield starved world can presently find better risk-adjusted yields
  • CHINESE CURRENCY PANIC NOW CLEARLY UNDERWAY
    January 4, 2017
    CHINESE CURRENCY PANIC NOW CLEARLY UNDERWAY China is getting desperate as it throws Capital Controls, Selling of FX Reserves and regulatory restrictions on citizens from buying overseas property, securities, life insurance or other investment-style insurance products. In fact, the only approved uses of funds are tourism, schooling, business travel and medical care. Which means any offshore
  • Euphoric Sentiment is Usually a Tell-Tale Sign Before the UN-Expected Shock!
    December 29, 2016
    Euphoric Sentiment is Usually a Tell-Tale Sign Before the UN-Expected Shock! I interviewed Danielle DiMartino Booth last year and her article below does a succinct job of summarizing current Consumer, Investor and Trader Sentiment. To put her analysis into perspective I have  included two charts. The first is below where I highlight the Technical Sentiment pattern going
  • CAUTION ADVISED: The Last Time Commercial Traders Bought This Many Bonds, Interest Rates Collapsed
    December 13, 2016
    CAUTION ADVISED: The Last Time Commercial Traders Bought This Many Bonds, Interest Rates Collapsed Commercial traders are net long more bond contracts than at any point since 1992 other than in the spring/summer of 2005 according to the latest data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. SOURCE: 12-13-16 ZeroHedge  As Gavekal Capital's Eric Bush points
  • LOOK FOR CORRECTING EQUITIES TO TRIGGER BOND RALLY AND WEAKENING US$
    December 1, 2016
    LOOK FOR CORRECTING EQUITIES TO TRIGGER BOND RALLY AND WEAKENING US$ NOW THAT THE CREDIT CYCLE HAS
  • SENTIMENT: FEAR BAROMETER PLUNGES – GREED & NASDAQ NEAR EXTREMES
    November 27, 2016
    SENTIMENT: FEAR BAROMETER PLUNGES - GREED & NASDAQ NEAR EXTREMES Bloomberg reports, the Credit Suisse Fear Barometer has tumbled 25% since the day before the presidential election, while the S&P 500 Index reached an all-time high. The gauge that compares bearish options prices with bullish ones three months from now has dropped to its lowest level
  • TRUMP TRIGGERED BOND DEBACLE – A POTENTIALLY DESTABILIZING EVENT
    November 18, 2016
    TRUMP TRIGGERED BOND DEBACLE - A POTENTIALLY DESTABILIZING EVENT Few are paying significant enough attention to what major moves in Treasury Yields have historically portended. Horseman's Russel Clark who observed that 30 Year Treasury Yields have had a rapid rise since the election of Donald Trump, and then makes the following troubling observation: sharp yield spikes
  • YIELDS NOW THE SAME FOR S&P 500 DIVIDENDS & UST 10Y
    November 12, 2016
    YIELDS NOW THE SAME FOR S&P 500 DIVIDENDS & UST 10Y We now have the same yield for the first time since Jan
  • TRUMP REACTION: Treasuries Plunge Most in Four Decades
    November 11, 2016
    TRUMP REACTION Treasuries Plunge Most in Four Decades 10Y UST = 2.06%  11/17: 2.28% 30Y UST = 2.85%   11/17: 3.00% The spread between yields on two- and 30-year debt increased 19 basis points to 195 basis points, the widest closing level since Feb.
  • RISK — LIBOR-OIS SPREAD NEAR EUROZONE DEBT CRISIS LEVELS & PAST BOUTS OF STRESS
    November 10, 2016
    RISK -- LIBOR-OIS SPREAD NEAR EUROZONE DEBT CRISIS LEVELS & PAST BOUTS OF STRESS Credit analysts are becoming nervous about the spread between Libor and the overnight index swap,  the so-called Libor-OIS spread that is used to gauge problems in the plumbing of  the credit system. It has widened to near levels seen in the
  • CURRENCIES — CENTRAL BANKS BEING FORCED TO LIQUIDATE FX RESERVES
    October 18, 2016
    CURRENCIES -- CENTRAL BANKS BEING FORCED TO LIQUIDATE FX RESERVES China (PBOC), Japan (BOJ) and many of the OPEX countries (specifically Saudi Arabia) are currently being forced to liquidate FX Reserves held in the form of US Treasuries as a means of funding Current Account deficits. These Current Account deficits are a result of collapsing
  • BOJ BALANCE SHEET GROWTH OUT OF CONTROL
    October 18, 2016
    BOJ BALANCE SHEET GROWTH OUT OF
  • DRIVERS: CREDIT
    October 10, 2016
    DRIVERS: CREDIT THE CREDIT GROWTH RATE IN THE US IS NOW A PROBLEM DESPITE MONUMENTAL GOVERNMENT EFFORTS CREDIT IS BEING ARTIFICIALLY HELD UP BY STUDENT  AND AUTO LOANS ... AND THE GOVERNMENT NOW OWNS 73% OF ALL THESE (UNPAYABLE) LOANS I SUSPECT THE GOVERNMENT THROUGH ALLY'S ABS SECURITIZATION'S FROM GOVERNMENT MOTORS(GM'S GMAC)  ALSO OWNS A
  • The correlation between bonds and stocks has never been higher
    October 8, 2016
    The correlation between bonds and stocks has never been higher SOURCE: 09-27-16 ZeroHedge The correlation between bonds and stocks has never been higher. In a 'normal' world, bond prices and stock prices are strongly inversely correlated (red shaded region in lower pane below) but the last few weeks have seen a massive regime shift (in
  • No More Room to Increase Leverage – A New Approach Urgently Required!
    September 12, 2016
    No More Room to Increase Leverage - A New Approach Required! The policy response to the global crisis remains so forceful that it has prevented any real deleveraging from happening. Leverage has actually increased globally which has actually been the intended goal of most policymakers today. By most objective measures, we are deep into the
  • “Brutal Price Action” Looms As Stocks & Bonds Correlation “Warning Sign” Flashes
    September 8, 2016
    "Brutal Price Action" Looms Stocks & Bonds Correlation A "Flashing Warning Sign" The correlation across asset-classes over the past few months - as global central banks ramp up QE to $200bn per month - is near record highs. Massive central bank stimulus with below zero rates and quantitative easing has led to increasingly dysfunctional markets,
  • Want to Know where Rates are Headed? Do Some Simple Arithmetic!
    September 2, 2016
    SOME SIMPLE ARITHMETIC The U.S. has total credit market debt of about $64 trillion. Even at a super-easy 2%, it means that it costs $1.3 trillion a year to pay the interest. Or, about 7% of GDP. That leaves the economy in a precarious balance – where it has just enough income to pay expenses. Growth,
  • SWISS NATIONAL BANK HOLDING UP THE US MARKET
    August 11, 2016
    SWISS NATIONAL BANK HOLDING UP THE US MARKET $60B SHOULD ABOUT DO IT! In a stealth fashion the Swiss National Bank (A SWAP Proxy for the Fed or US Treasury?) has acquired $60B of SPECIFIC  US Equities! Since the end of QE3 (Oct 2014), the broadest measure of the US equity market (NYSE Composite) is modestly
  • Why GAAP Matters: Real Profit Margins Tumble To 10 Year Lows
    August 9, 2016
    Why GAAP Matters: Real Profit Margins Tumble To 10 Year Lows   SOURCE: 08-09-16 ZeroHedge  Over the past several months, the topic of GAAP vs non-GAAP number (and specifically the near-crisis gap that has formed between the time series) has gotten increasingly prominent attention by both regulators and the mainstream media. But while attention has
  • CLASSIC DOW NON-CONFIRMATION
    July 17, 2016
    CLASSIC DOW NON-CONFIRMATION
  • HERE IS WHAT IS HOLDING UP AN OVER-VALUED MARKET
    July 16, 2016
    HERE IS WHAT IS HOLDING UP AN OVER-VALUED MARKET Current Global Run Rate is $155B/Month Compared to the QE3 Peek of $80B/Month “We are witnessing a surge in net global central bank asset purchases to their highest level since
  • We have a surge in net global central bank asset purchases to their highest since 2013.
    July 13, 2016
    We have a surge in net global central bank asset purchases to their highest since
  • DECISION TIME FOR THE CENTRAL BANKS – THEY MUST PRINT OR LET THE MARKETS FALL!
    July 11, 2016
    DECISION TIME FOR THE CENTRAL BANKS THEY MUST PRINT OR LET THE MARKETS FALL! OUR "M' TOP We have laid out our expectations of an "M" top since near the market bottom in early 2009. As shown below we have now completed our "M" top and one of two courses will now be followed. The
  • YIELD – July MATA
    July 10, 2016
    YIELD - July MATA The European Banking Crisis II (Italy) has caused Panic Buying of UST's Our Target is Still the 1.25 we called ONE YEAR AGO at Camp Kotok in
  • Biggest Post BREXIT Risk is Central Bank Stealth Actions of Liquidity Pumping or Direct Buying of Equity Markets
    July 9, 2016
    Biggest Post BREXIT Risk is Central Bank Stealth Actions of  Liquidity Pumping or Direct Buying of Equity