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TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

  • SOCGEN: LOW ‘vol’ IS GONE & THIS CHANGES EVERYTHING!
    April 15, 2018
    SOCGEN: LOW 'vol' IS GONE & THIS CHANGES EVERYTHING! -- SOURCE: 04-13-18 ZeroHedge - "SocGen: "Low Vol Is Gone And This Changes Everything" -- Goldman Sachs, Bank of America, Morgan Stanley: while Wall Street banks and their research teams tend to disagree on most aspects of market analysis and forecasting, one common theme they currently all
  • CRACKS IN CREDIT MORE PRONOUNCED SINCE FEBRUARY VIX IMPLOSION
    April 14, 2018
    CRACKS IN CREDIT MORE PRONOUNCED SINCE FEBRUARY VIX IMPLOSION -- ABSTRACTED FROM: 03-23-18  ZeroHedge - "Retail Whiplashed By 2nd Largest ETF Outflow On Record; Longest HY Outflows Since 2007" -- According to the fund flow data, it's time to worry about credit and especially high yield, because as BofA's Michael Hartnett writes, "credit is cracking” after
  • PATTERNS: ALL MAJOR INDICES TESTING POST-2016 TRENDLINE SUPPORT
    April 13, 2018
    PATTERNS: ALL MAJOR INDICES TESTING POST-2016 TRENDLINE
  • A MARKET REGIME CHANGE IS OCCURRING – VIX TERM STRUCTURES IN “BACKWARDATION”
    March 29, 2018
    A MARKET REGIME CHANGE IS OCCURRING - VIX TERM STRUCTURES IN "BACKWARDATION" Volatility is back and most notably the VIX term structure has been inverted for a significant period of time - which itself is unusual... As Bloomberg notes, backwardation is a tell-tale sign that stress is still built into the market -- typically, contracts for further months
  • IN DEPTH: TRANSCRIPTION – REPRICING OF RISK BEGINS
    March 21, 2018
    IN DEPTH: TRANSCRIPTION – REPRICING OF RISK BEGINS COVER   AGENDA SLIDE 5 We started warning of the huge problems we saw with volatility as measured by the VIX as part of our October LONGWave video entitled "Powering the 'ETF Dynamo'". To us, the once "cottage industry" of shorting the VIX was becoming so pronounced
  • UNDERSTANDING THE NEW $2 TRILLION ASSET CLASS CALLED “vol” (VOLATILITY)
    March 2, 2018
    UNDERSTANDING THE NEW $2 TRILLION ASSET CLASS CALLED "vol" (VOLATILITY) MONETARY MALPRACTICE I put this schematic together not long after the 2008 Financial Crisis as we were witnessing the emerging approach the Federal Reserve was taking to its resolution. The last update of the diagram was in 2012 (note the 2012 copyright at the bottom)
  • “IMPLIED EQUITY CORRELATION” SPIKE SIGNALS SYSTEMIC WORRIES OF HIGH CORRELATION EVENT
    February 10, 2018
    "IMPLIED EQUITY CORRELATION" SPIKE SIGNALS SYSTEMIC WORRIES OF HIGH CORRELATION EVENT --SOURCE: 02-10-18 ZeroHedge - "Traders Now Record Short Bonds After Biggest VIX Futures Liquidation Ever" -- After a chaotic week of volatility-related volatility, some of the unbelievable fallout from the "end of the short-vol trade" is being exposed. The week was full of superlatives...(and
  • A $2 TRILLION ASSET CLASS: MAPPING KEY ELEMENTS TO THE VOLATILITY UNDERWORLD
    February 8, 2018
    A $2 TRILLION ASSET CLASS: MAPPING KEY ELEMENTS TO THE VOLATILITY UNDERWORLD -- SOURCE: 02-07-18 Bloomberg - "Map to the Underworld: $2 Trillion of Volatility Trades Here" -- Products tied to market swings put in spotlight amid selloff Inverse VIX ETPs grew in popularity with short-vol trade For a fledgling asset class whose idiosyncrasies are
  • SHORT VOLATILITY (VIX) PRODUCTS PLUNGE $3.2 BILLION
    February 8, 2018
    SHORT VOLATILITY (VIX) PRODUCTS PLUNGE $3.2 BILLION Before whirlwind, banks turned volatility into the hot item VIX was seen as sure thing -- until it suddenly wasn’t anymore  -- SOURCE: 02-06-18 Bloomberg - "Volatility Inc.: Inside Wall Street’s $8 Billion Mess" -- It was the hot trade on Wall Street, a seemingly sure thing that
  • USD & Market Correlations
    February 6, 2018
    Our recent USD technical update showed a potential for the drop since the beginning of 2017 to come to an end.  Several significant technicals can be seen near the current market location and  there is a possibility for the USD to find support some time in the near future. Here is a look at a
  • RISK-PARITY & CTA MANAGED FUTURES FUNDS SELLING $200B
    February 6, 2018
      RISK-PARITY & CTA MANAGED FUTURES FUNDS SELLING $200B --SOURCE: 02-06-18 ZeroHedge - "That Was Just The Start: Risk Parity, CTAs Are In Process Of Selling $200 Billion" -- Now that inverse VIX ETFs have effectively blown up, suffering "termination events" like XIV earlier today, one of the forming bullish market narratives is that there
  • SHORTING VOLATILITY FINALLY GOES “LIGHTS OUT”!
    February 6, 2018
    SHORTING  VOLATILITY FINALLY GOES "LIGHTS OUT"! Review the December 13th LONGWave video for our warning and hat to expect now - The Passive ETF Dynamo The VIX finally went bananas rising 20 points to the highest level since Aug 2015 By Charlie McElligott, managing director of cross-asset strategy at Nomura - ""The Vol Market Finally Broke":
  • WHAT’S HAPPENING? – ITS ABOUT VIX ETF COVERING, RISK PARITY, ETNs & FORCED VaR REBALANCING
    February 6, 2018
    WHAT'S HAPPENING? - ITS ABOUT VIX ETF COVERING, RISK PARITY, ETNs & FORCED VaR REBALANCING To understand what is going on in the Equity Market you need to review the December 13th LONGWave video for our warning and what to expect now - The Passive ETF Dynamo and have a basic understanding of the following concepts: Exchange
  • THE RISK-PARITY FUND “SCHEME” BLOWS UP – DJIA INTRA-DAY DOWN ~1597 PTS
    February 6, 2018
    THE RISK-PARITY FUND "SCHEME" BLOWS UP - DJIA INTRA-DAY DOWN ~1597 PTS  -- SOURCE: 02-05-18 Phoenix Capital - Graham Summers - "The Risk Parity/ Short Vol Trade Just Blew Up" -- The risk-parity fund market rig is officially over. Throughout 2017, I noted that “someone” was slamming the VIX lower to force risk-parity funds to
  • “SELLING VOLATILITY”- VIX SHIFTS FROM A FEAR INDEX TO A GREED INDEX
    November 29, 2017
    "SELLING VOLATILITY"- VIX SHIFTS FROM A FEAR INDEX TO A GREED INDEX  --SOURCE: 11-29-17 Peter Tchir, Forbes.com, - "VIX - From Fear Index To Greed Index" -- We have all heard the VIX or volatility index referred to as the Fear Index or Fear Gauge.  Rising VIX was meant to signal fear in the markets.  That is how most
  • WHAT THE CAPE/VIX RELATIONSHIP TELLS US IS LOOMING AHEAD
    October 20, 2017
    WHAT THE CAPE/VIX RELATIONSHIP TELLS US IS LOOMING AHEAD We were in the process of writing about the technical pattern in the VIX when we came across some research by Peter Schiff of Euro Pacific Capital illustrating the historical correlation of the CAPE/VIX Ratio to US Recessions go back to 1990. We have been warning about a
  • USD Technical Update 2017 10 16
    October 16, 2017
    Long Term View Last update we reviewed a perspective we have been following for a number of years : Of note are the two large ellipses: these are identical, with the ellipse on the right being a copy of the ellipse on the left, shifted over and moved down slightly.  Also to note is the
  • SPX Technical Update 2017 06 19
    June 19, 2017
    Weekly: the chart to the right shows what we had given last update, the red numbers 1-3 have been added and highlight the targets the market moved through. You can see these in the current weekly chart below, with the market sitting at target  3. Since last update the market lifted in to HPTZ1; pulled
  • TNX 10yr Technical Update
    June 12, 2017
    Weekly: The last time we updated the TNX we were watching for a potential move lower to fill a gap (yellow highlight).  This occurred, and the market now sits at several significant technicals. The pattern for the lift since June 2016 could be seen as a potential expanding wedge, with the market currently sitting at
  • USD Technical Update
    June 5, 2017
    Long Term Weekly View This is a perspective we have been following for a few years now.  Both blue ellipses are identical, the second a copy & paste of the 1st, moved over and down slightly. Although the lift from 2009 is no longer riding the ellipse edge, this edge is still a significant technical
  • GOLD Technical Update and IDEA
    May 28, 2017
    Gold long term monthly view: The market sits at an interesting confluence of technicals, all significant, and how they break or hold could show us the next move. At the current market location we can see gold just coming up to a purple long term monthly target. Around this area we can see: (1) purple
  • FALLING VIX & EQUITY PROTECTION AS TRADERS MOVE TO BOND MARKET
    May 15, 2017
    FALLING VIX & EQUITY PROTECTION AS TRADERS MOVE TO BOND MARKET Speculators are adding to VIX shorts by the most in 9 months... By doing this equity traders are dumping equity protection as they surge into safe havens like bonds. 10Y Treasury specs are the longest since Dec 2007 But aggregate Treasury complex positioning (in 10Y
  • S&P 500 FORWARD PE v VIX RATIO
    April 5, 2017
    S&P 500 FORWARD PE v VIX RATIO The Financial Times in London identifies the S&P 500 Forward PE to VIX Ratio as something to pay particular attention to when considering just how expensive the US Equity Market has become. The S&P 500 Forward PE to VIX Ratio is presently at highs only seen prior to
  • MARKET GREED/FEAR INDEX: Extreme Greed (AAII, INVI, MARKETVANE, VIX)
    March 10, 2017
    MARKET GREED/FEAR INDEX: Extreme Greed (AAII, INVI, MARKETVANE,
  • TNX CBOE 10yr Treasury Note Yield Technical Update
    January 21, 2017
    WEEKLY View: A long term descending wedge pattern can be seen coming from the left of the chart; this has recently been violently broken through: the lift can be seen to reach significant pattern resistance.  The last few weeks have seen the market fall off slightly from the recently made high, dropping back in to
  • SPX Nov 27 2016
    November 27, 2016
    SPX FIB PRICE & TIME ANALYSIS Our fist chart for SPX is taking a look at some Fibonacci price & time objectives.  We've seen this chart before: take a look at the previous post where I explain the current Fib level we have reached and how it was derived. If the market continues to lift
  • Biggest Post BREXIT Risk is Central Bank Stealth Actions of Liquidity Pumping or Direct Buying of Equity Markets
    July 9, 2016
    Biggest Post BREXIT Risk is Central Bank Stealth Actions of  Liquidity Pumping or Direct Buying of Equity
  • VIX 22 04 2016
    April 22, 2016
    VIX remains at lows. Potential still for lower levels - watch support. W%R is at lower extremes indicating negative pressure and more down potential. Also potential for an extreme spike, technically $76.00 is possible - however there are a few other resistances to watch out for if the market starts to lift.  W%R needs ot
  • VIX Expanding, Spikes Possible
    February 14, 2016
    The VIX has been expanding since about June 2014.  Note the spikes since then and the expanding wedge pattern.  Market has the potential to spike back to the blue wedge resistance at any time.  Note spikes lifted to previously define market levels; where these and the wedge resistance meet offers target considerations. The W%R is
  • SILVER Potential Significant Lift
    February 12, 2016
    as published in TRIGGER$ Feb Issue - Feb 1st 2016 Weekly: Silver remains within a downward channel (green) and has held at previous lows. Potential for a bounce to retest significant technicals. W%R is lifting indicating positive pressure may be coming back – need to see lift past previous turns at low levels on indicator for
  • S&P Long-Term View: Controlling Channels & S/R’s
    February 11, 2016
    Market broke down from green support, spiked in to HPTZ(C2) and bounced back to the previous purple s/r beside HPTZ(C1). Retest of green s/r would be normal market movement; a break up through this could see a move back to D1; pattern allows for a lift all the way back to D2 and still be