JUNE ELLIOTT WAVE: S&P 500 HAS BROKEN "CONTINUATION TRIANGLE" TO THE UPSIDE  

JUNE 2018 PRIMARY TREND UPDATE: TREND IS STILL UPWARD

S&P 500: JUNE 2018 UPDATE: CHANNELS – SUPPORT & RESISTANCE

JUNE 2018 UPDATE: POST 2008 BOUNDARY CONDITIONS

CREDIT CYCLE WARNING: EMERGING MARKET SOVEREIGN BONDS CHEAPER THAN US HIGH YIELD! -- SOURCE: 06-14-18 Forbes - "When Will The High-Yield Credit Bubble Burst?" -- U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell speaks during a news conference June 13, 2018 in Washington, DC. After a two-day meeting the Chairman Powell announced that the Fed will increase […]

16 OF THE WORLD'S MOST SYSTEMICALLY IMPORTANT BANKS HAVE QUIETLY FALLEN INTO BEAR MARKET TERRITORY -- SOURCE: 06-15-18 ZeroHedge -  "Some Of The 'Most Systemically Important Banks' In The World Are Tumbling" -- Since the Federal Reserve hiked rates, "big" US banks have dramatically underperformed "small" US banks, continuing a trend that has been going […]

42% OF FUND MANAGERS SAY CORPORATIONS ARE NOW OVER-LEVERED Of the 235 June Bank of America Merrill Lynch Fund Managers survey respondents with $684BN in AUM, a record 42% of investors said companies are over levered, far exceeding the 32% peak in 2008; overall an all-time high of net 34% think corporate balance sheets are […]

EXPECTATIONS BY FUND MANAGERS OF FASTER GLOBAL GROWTH CONTINUE TO FADE According to the June Bank of America Fund Manager Survey expectations for faster global growth continued to fade, with just net 1% of investors indicating they think the global economy will strengthen over the next 12 months, barely above the boom/bust threshold and still at […]

FUND MANAGER ALLOCATIONS TO COMMODITIES HITS 8 YEAR HIGH - NET 7% OVERWEIGHT According to the June Bank of America Fund Manager Survey and we would expect, since it is very late in the business cycle allocation to commodities has hit a new 8-year high, rising 1ppt to net 7% overweight, the highest since April 2012 when […]

HIGH YIELD SPREAD EXPECTATIONS HEADING INTO A RECESSION "HY spreads do not have a recessionary look at all" ... but let's see what happens when the QE stops buying corporate bonds. "The energy sector suggest there is some chance of a recession in 12 months, but not sooner."  

GLOBAL GROWTH IS SLOWING - MORE SO IN THE EU THAN ANYWHERE

FALLING GLOBAL & EU LEI's MAY DRAG US INTO NEXT RECESSION -- SOURCE: 06-08-18 RecessionAlert.com, Dwaine Van Vuuren - "World headed for cyclical slowdown" -- Download article as PDF Whilst the RecessionALERT U.S Leading index is currently looking robust, we cannot ignore the fact that there is a not-insignificant 40% correlation between the movements of the U.S […]

THE EU LEI HAS TAKEN A DECIDEDLY WORRISOME DOWNTURN! -- SOURCE: 06-08-18 RecessionAlert.com, Dwaine Van Vuuren - "World headed for cyclical slowdown" -- Download article as PDF The European countries, representing some 25% of world economic output have taken a decidedly worrisome turn: Many of these LEI’s include sentiment data, and its probably a fair […]

WORLD LEI INDICATES A GLOBAL CYCLICAL SLOWDOWN -- SOURCE: 06-08-18 RecessionAlert.com, Dwaine Van Vuuren - "World headed for cyclical slowdown" -- Download article as PDF Despite the U.S leading economic indicators appearing healthy, the global economy appears to be headed for a slow down, with only 34% of the 40 countries we track having leading […]

SLOWING GLOBAL TRADE TO LIKELY TRIGGER A GLOBAL EARNINGS RECESSION -- MODIFIED FROM: 06-12-18 Palisade-Research.com, Adem Tumerkan - "Global Earnings Recession All But Certain As World Trade Weakens" -- Markets have rallied into summer. The mess in Italy – which hasn’t resolved itself at all – is yesterday’s news. Within the last two weeks, the VIX is […]