CHINA CURRENTLY DRIVING US TREASURY YIELDS HIGHER ...the story is the cyclical upturn in China something commodities were foreshadowing.  The slew of better data out of China is turning yields back higher along with it. China CPI, M2, Exports, and Aggregate Financing all turning higher off the lows The bounce in the data has been […]

THE SMART MONEY NOW POSITIONED FOR LATE 2020 RECESSION & SECULAR STAGNATION Wall Street's professional investors are preparing for the worst, with two-thirds once again falling into the "secular stagnation" camp ahead of what is now a consensus call for a recession in the second half of 2020. According to the latest monthly Fund Manager […]

GLOBAL TRADE COLLAPSE NOW FRIGHTENINGLY ON PAR WITH DOTCOM & GFC FALLOUT'S "An industrial slump has been triggered by a perfect storm of factors, including China’s slowdown, the car industry downturn, Brexit paralysis and Donald Trump’s attempt to upend the international trade system with tariffs on European and Chinese goods," ---  The Telegraph. According to […]

WHAT THE CHARTS TELL YOU ABOUT ASSET & PRICE INFLATION Jesse Colombo at RealInvestmentAdvice.com  did a nice job of recapping everything we have been laying out on Inflation over the years. I thought it a good time to reiterate and reinforce what is really happening with Asset and Price Inflation: A very dangerous fallacy has […]

CYCLES: MORE THAN JUST A POST WWII ECONOMIC PROBLEM One of the best cycles experts is Harry Dent. The following two charts are from his work. I interviewed Harry a couple of years ago  and I encourage you to review the podcast / transcript and charts. The discussion is even more salient today as the […]

S&P 500 APRIL 2019 UPDATE: PRIMARY TREND

THE MEDIA & 'NEW DEMOCRATS' ARE WRONG - CAPITALISM ISN'T THE PROBLEM! Peter Shift at SchiffGold.com recently spelled out in a podcast (below) that the problem is not Capitalism! here is a published summary of his message How are all of these unprofitable companies staying afloat and even making big splashes with media-hyped IPOs? Peter Schiff addressed […]

WELL RESPECTED BOND EXPERT, LACY HUNT LAYS MMT BARE I have interviewed and talked to Lacy Hunt many times over the years. There are few out there with his depth and understanding of Monetary Policy. What he has to say on MMT (Modern Monetary Theory) needs to be carefully considered. First let's read what Lacy […]

ONLY FOUR OPTIONS TO THE US $75T INSOLVENCY PROBLEM According to the Treasury Department’s annual financial report for Fiscal Year 2018 (which they just published last week), the US government is hopelessly bankrupt with a reported  negative net worth of MINUS $75 TRILLION. To believe that any nation can be so desperately insolvent without suffering any […]

HERE'S WHY RUSSELL 2000 COMPANIES ARE INCREASINGLY UNPROFITABLE Why is an increasing percentage of Russell 2000 companies unprofitable? It is the diminishing marginal utility of debt. In this case, more and more debt is required to add what looks like less and less profit. Inflation has become the counterfeiting of credit. It’s a fraud, where […]

STAGNATION & ZOMBIFICATION OF THE GLOBAL ECONOMY IS UNDERWAY Liquidity injections and zero interest rate policies disguise risk and may give a false sense of security. The difference between now and the Asian or the 2008 crisis is that this time the excess risk is hidden under central banks’ balance sheets and will continue to […]

CHINESE CREDIT EXPLODES HIGHER - AGAIN!! Just after 4am ET (04-12-19), the S&P futures surged above 2,900 when the PBOC reported that in March, new yuan loans jumped by 1.69 trillion, far above 1.25 trillion estimate, while total social financing in March soared higher by 2.86t yuan - the highest March increase on record; smashing the 1.85 […]

THE MARKET'S "ZERO CORPORATE TAXES" SUGAR HIGH! Twice as many companies are paying zero taxes under Trump tax plan. In its first year, the number of companies paying no taxes went from 30 to 60. The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act lowered the corporate tax rate from 35 percent to 21 percent. Examples include Market […]

PREPARE FOR THE COMING "EARNINGS RECESSION" SCARE   Start bracing yourself for an earnings recession, with first-quarter numbers for the S&P 500 expected to suffer the first decline in nearly three years (begins today with JPM & WFC -  but the busiest period will start the week of April 22 and run through May 3, when […]

MAJOR COUNTER RALLY UNDERWAY IN OVERSOLD AUTO SUPPLIERS After major SHORT  gains in 2018, we were fully expecting a counter rally / consolidation in the SII: AUTO - SUPPLIERS Watch List positions. It has been underway across the whole sub sector since year beginning. This week we have seen another leg: Six of the Top […]