THE SHILLER CAPE, RATE CYCLES & FINANCIAL REPRESSION The Shiller CAPE (Cyclically Adjusted Price-Earnings) Ratio is found to be inversely correlated to interest rates over long periods of time. Generally you would expect PE’s as well as the 10 year Shiller CAPE to expand as interest rates fall and to contract as they rise. What may […]
THE SHILLER CAPE HAS SHOWN THE WAY BEFORE!
MARKET GREED/FEAR INDEX: Extreme Greed (AAII, INVI, MARKETVANE, VIX)
CONSUMER CONFIDENCE AT 15 YEAR HIGH We have a matching downward trend in both Consumer Confidence Regression and the GDP Regression over the last 40 years. The Head and Shoulders pattern is reflective of a topping pattern as the public is losing confidence in the “American Dream” and economic future. Previous highs in Consumer Confidence […]
IS STAGFLATION STALKING? THE ANSWER IS CRITICAL TO YOUR FINANCIAL HEALTH! It is important to anticipate whether Stagflation is stalking because the yield curve will start pricing it in which will place equity yields, earnings and PE growth multiples at risk. We believe there are clear signs of stagflation already occurring and according to the recent Global […]
CHARTING THE MADDENING MARKET MESSAGES Why are we getting such diverging and maddening market messages from the equity and bond markets? Which one is right? Are either right? MARKET PERCEPTIONS Let’s consider the perceptions of each of these markets: EQUITY MARKET The Equity Markets perceives Trumponomic Policy SUCCESS ahead and are aggressively pricing it in! The level […]
IS RETAIL COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE THE NEXT FINANCIAL IMPLOSION? There is much more happening in the rapidly rupturing retailing industry than a shift to online buying, a collapse in US shopping mall traffic and the decline of the “Department Store” model. Over two years ago Charles Hugh Smith and I produced a number of research videos ( 02 […]
THE NEXT FINANCIAL IMPLOSION IS NOT GOING TO BE ABOUT THE BANKS! US COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE The Global Real Estate market dwarfs all financial markets by any comparison. The Global Real Estate market being so large, it has always been stable and as such it is the favorite of institutions for long term investing – specifically Insurance companies, […]
THE RAPIDLY RUPTURING RETAILING REALITY There is much more happening in the rapidly rupturing retailing industry than a collapse in US shopping mall traffic, the decline of the “Department Store” model and a shift to online buying. We have targeted collapsing retailers for over 2 years as an allocation within our investment portfolio. Over two years ago […]
