TRIGGER$ September 2018
IN-DEPTH: TRANSCRIPTION – TURKEY, EM & THE COMING EU BANKING CRISIS II – PART I
IN-DEPTH: TRANSCRIPTION – TURKEY, EM & THE COMING EU BANKING CRISIS II – PART I COVER AGENDA SLIDE 5 – GLOBAL MARKET TURMOIL Global banking stocks are plunging, emerging market stocks are cratering, and emerging market currencies continue their stunning decline. The shakiness of global financial markets has many investors wondering what trouble the fall will […]
LAST TIME “FEAR INDEX” & STOCKS TRADED THIS CLOSELY IT DIDN’T END WELL!
LAST TIME “FEAR INDEX” & STOCKS TRADED THIS CLOSELY IT DIDN’T END WELL! — SOURCE: 09-01-18 MarketWatch – “The last time Wall Street’s ‘fear index’ and stocks traded this closely it didn’t end well” — The relationship between VIX and the stock indices looked a lot like this just before February unraveling Getty ImagesStocks and […]
SMALL BUSINESS CONFIDENCE BREAKS HIGH SET UNDER REAGAN
SMALL BUSINESS CONFIDENCE BREAKS HIGH SET UNDER REAGAN — SOURCE: 09-11-18 – “”Groundbreaking Numbers”: Small Business Confidence Smashes Prior High Set Under Reagan” In the latest sign that the Trump administration’s economic policies are fueling an economic boom, the National Federation of Independent Businesses reported Tuesday that its gauge of small business optimism had risen […]
GLOBAL (NON US) MARKETS ARE GETTING DOWNRIGHT UGLY!
GLOBAL (NON US) MARKETS ARE GETTING DOWNRIGHT UGLY! All around the world, the peak was in January 2018… and since that time most markets have been in MAJOR downtrends if not outright bear markets. — SOURCE: 09-05-18 PainsGainsCapital.com The markets are getting downright ugly. If things don’t turn up soon we could be at the […]
TOBIN’S Q-RATIO AT THE SECOND HIGHEST IN HISTORY
TOBIN’S Q-RATIO AT THE SECOND HIGHEST IN HISTORY There’s an important market metric that’s signaling huge downside ahead. I’m talking about the Tobin Ratio – otherwise known as the ‘Q-Ratio’. . . Created by Nobel Laureate James Tobin, the Q-Ratio is a method for investors to gauge the fair value of all firms relative to their combined […]
SEPTEMBER ELLIOTT WAVE: EXPECT NEAR TERM CONSOLIDATION BEFORE CONTINUING HIGHER
SEPTEMBER ELLIOTT WAVE: EXPECT NEAR TERM CONSOLIDATION BEFORE CONTINUING HIGHER BIG PICTURE – LONG TERM VIEW We are in the early stages of a “Minsky Melt-Up”, Minsky Melt-Up ends just after the next US Presidential Election, Suggest you read: WASHINGTON’S PLAN TO AVOID AN OUT OF CONTROL US DEBT PROBLEM Additionally: CENTRAL BANKS ENRICH A SELECT FEW […]
CONSUMER CONFIDENCE EXPLODES TO 18 YEAR HIGH AS INCOME EXPECTATIONS HIT RECORD
CONSUMER CONFIDENCE EXPLODES TO 18 YEAR HIGH AS INCOME EXPECTATIONS HIT RECORD — SOURCE: 08-28-18 – “Consumer Confidence Explodes To 18 Year High As Income Expectations Hit Record” — As ‘soft’ survey data continues to catch down to ‘hard’ real economic data’s recent demise, Conference Board Confidence shuns the slump and explodes higher to 133.4 (exp […]
ST LOUIS FED FINANCIAL STRESS INDEX SIGNALS MARKET COMPLACENCY
ST LOUIS FED FINANCIAL STRESS INDEX SIGNALS MARKET COMPLACENCY The chart below shows the St. Louis Financial Stress Index, which measures how much stress there is in the U.S. financial system. Obviously, we would all rather live in a world with low financial stress instead of high financial stress, but very low levels in the […]
SENTIMENT: VIX BACK TO 10 HANDLE SUGGESTS COMPLACENCY
SENTIMENT: VIX BACK TO 10 HANDLE SUGGESTS COMPLACENCY The chart below shows the well-known CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), which is a barometer of how fearful U.S. stock investors are. The VIX remained at ultra-low levels during the housing bubble era and it has been following a similar pattern for the past eight years or so. During both bubbles, […]