The correlation between bonds and stocks has never been higher
SOURCE: 09-27-16 ZeroHedge
The correlation between bonds and stocks has never been higher. In a 'normal' world, bond prices and stock prices are strongly inversely correlated (red shaded region in lower pane below) but the last few weeks have seen a massive regime shift (in fact the biggest shift in history) as the entire financial market becomes captured by central bank idiocy.
While this is interesting from a historical perspective, the question is "so what?" Well, the last few times that bonds and stocks have risen or fallen together with such co-dependence has not ended well for stocks...
- May 2004 S&P -6.2%
- March 2005 S&P -8.1%
- May 2006 S&P -7.8%
- Sept 2006 S&P No Drop
- June 2007 S&P -12.2%... then crash
- July 2013 S&P -7.9%
- March 2015 S&P -3.8%
- Dec 2015 S&P -14.1%
Could a Yield Spike Crash Stocks?
Treasuries are rolling over rapidly and crashing.
When they do, the S&P 500 could literally crash. Yes, I mean crash as in collapse over 100 points in a single day.
And if yields REALLY begin to rise, and the European banking crisis accelerates, we could drop below 1,800 on the S&P 500 in a heartbeat.