Gordon T Long
Global Macro Research | Macro-Technical Analysis
TIPPING POINTS
A Pandemic
THE STAGES IN REOPENING AMERICA
-
- The issues associated with the next Stage of the CoronaVirus’ development (the Re-Opening of the US & Global Economies).
- The Yield Curves ‘Second Steepening’ Trigger.
The first is discussed below while the second is outlined further as a subscriber ALERT on a separate post entitled:
THE COMING STAGES OF THE CORONAVIRUS
TIMELINE: Recovering from this acute period in the outbreak is just the beginning and not the end. The path to re-opening the economy is going to be long. The pandemic won’t be truly “over” until a vaccine is available, which could take as long as 18 months.
STAGE 1 – “SHELTER IN PLACE”
STAGE 2 – “REOPENING” – Mid-to-Late May – Earliest. Early June is likely to happe
STAGE 3 – “THE SECOND WAVE” – November/December. A potential second wave of infections could strike around November/December. Hopes are it will be less severe than the current peak, although in truth nobody knows.
- Metrics that would guide that process. California’s secretary of Health and Human Services said easing the state’s restrictions would require putting in place a system to 1-Test, Track & Trace
- Test more people for the virus,
- Track new cases as they appear and
- Trace person-to-person contacts that could trigger new outbreaks
- NY Governor Cuomo said “the restart has to be carried out slowly while keeping an eye on the virus rates. You’ll start to open that valve on the economic activity, and you’ll turn that valve very slowly reopening the economy, more essential workers, do it carefully do it slowly and do it intelligently”,
- There “will still be a large number of workers not able to go back to work until a vaccine is abundantly available,
- Social distancing cannot be fully relaxed until we have herd immunity (~60% of people vaccinated),
- There are promising anti-virals and antibody therapies in the pipeline with data starting in April and continuing through the late summer.
- Some of these drugs can be successful and help to turn severe cases into milder forms of the disease.
- Such an outcome could reduce the potential strain on hospitals and allow public health officials to support a broader re-opening of the economy before a vaccine is available
WHAT’S INVOLVED IN STAGE 2
- However, we expect the rest of the country to follow slowly, trailing the coasts by around three weeks.”
- And while this “second” peak is unlikely to be as severe as the first (~10,000-15,000 daily new cases versus 30,000-35,000 in the first peak), “it means the US outbreak will have a very long tail.
- This much longer tail would put the US time to peak at ~4x China and 2x Italy, driven by the slow uptake of social distancing measures and lack of robust testing.
- Large venues such as sports stadiums, concert halls and theme parks are also likely to remain shut or have attendance capped at 10-25% of prior levels.”
A TOUGH “OPENING” IN THE MIDST OF THIS WITH PLUMMETING EARNINGS’ EXPECTATIONS
FAIR USE NOTICE This site contains copyrighted material the use of which has not always been specifically authorized by the copyright owner. We are making such material available in our efforts to advance understanding of environmental, political, human rights, economic, democracy, scientific, and social justice issues, etc. We believe this constitutes a ‘fair use’ of any such copyrighted material as provided for in section 107 of the US Copyright Law. In accordance with Title 17 U.S.C. Section 107, the material on this site is distributed without profit to those who have expressed a prior interest in receiving the included information for research and educational purposes. If you wish to use copyrighted material from this site for purposes of your own that go beyond ‘fair use’, you must obtain permission from the copyright owner.
NOTICE Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. MATASII.com does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility.
