THESIS 2017: ILLUSION OF GROWTH - ANNUAL GDP MINUS ANNUAL DEFICIT
The chart below shows the annual change in gross domestic product after subtracting the annual federal deficit spending essentially included as part of that GDP figure.
-- SOURCE: 02-11-18 Econimica Chris Hamilton - "The Federal Reserve and Trump Intent on "Squeezing Blood from a Turnip"...Or Why Most Americans Are in a No Win Scenario" --
The US hit peak growth in 2000, adding a half trillion in economic activity above and beyond the deficit spending incurred that year. Since then, the wheels have fallen off and economic activity (subtracting the annual deficit incurred) has been spectacularly negative. Said otherwise, there is no growth but the growth of debt. And this takes no account of the far larger and more pernicious unfunded liabilities.
The above chart also shows estimates through 2025. This is based on 2.5% annual GDP growth through 2025 (splitting the difference between WH versus the CBO's sub 2% GDP growth estimates) minus CBO annual deficit estimates.
However, the annual deficit estimates through 2025 show the CBO's baseline from June 2017...prior to the tax cuts and spiking interest payments. The resultant updated deficits (and declining economic activity absent deficit spending) are likely to be double what is shown in the chart above. And this assumes no recessions from 2009 through 2025...a period of "growth" unlike the nation has ever seen while the nations populace (consumptive force) grows at the lowest levels.
Even in the happiest of scenarios, America will continue moving backward...while more realistically, America is almost sure to face economic, financial, and social calamity in the near term. But this is not simply an American problem...it is truly global in its scope (detailed HERE).