US INFLATION STATUS: CORE CPI, SERVICES, GOODS, PCE, & FED’S UIG

US INFLATION STATUS: CORE CPI, SERVICES, GOODS, PCE, & FED'S UIG

-- Abstracted from: 05-08-18 -"Gundlach Webcast: "Is A Recession Coming?"

.... On inflation, "it's trending higher", and notes that if Core CPI goes above 2.25%, the entire inflation narrative is going to change as it will be "something of a breakout." If we don't go above 2.25%, it will be more of the same.

Looking at service inflation vs goods inflation, both have started to move higher.

Gundlach points out that the NY Fed's Underlying Inflation Gauge leads Core CPI by 16 months with a surprisingly high correlation. If the NY Fed UIG is accurate, core CPI will rise to the highest in over a decade, and will break out above Gundlach's key 2.25% Core CPI level.