HOW OVERVALUED IS THE US DOLLAR?

OBSERVATIONS: GOVERNMENT NEEDS TO OBEY THEIR OWN LAWS!

In what universe does it make sense that the President of the United States has to sign an executive order to stop illegal aliens from receiving Social Security benefits?

That’s not just an absurd headline — it’s a tragic indictment of how far the US has strayed from the rule of law, common sense and constitutional integrity.

Let’s get one thing straight: illegal immigrants are already barred from receiving Social Security benefits. Full stop. It’s enshrined in federal law, constitutional precedent and the very fabric of what it means to be a sovereign nation. Yet here we are, once again, watching a president step in with a pen to “reaffirm” what is already carved into stone.

• • Under Section 1611 of the Social Security Act (42 U.S.C. § 1382c), individuals who are not lawfully present in the United States are categorically ineligible for Supplemental Security Income (SSI).
  • The Personal Responsibility and Work Opportunity Reconciliation Act of 1996 (PRWORA) explicitly excludes most non-citizens from federal means-tested public benefits.
  • And let’s not forget 8 U.S.C. § 1611, which states unequivocally, “Notwithstanding any other provision of law…an alien who is not a qualified alien…is not eligible for any Federal public benefit.”

Translation: They’re already prohibited!

So why does Trump need to sign an executive order? 

Because we are no longer a nation governed by laws — we are a nation governed by:

1. 1. Selective Enforcement
   2. Political Cowardice and
   3. Bureaucratic Betrayal.

While illegals exploit the system through loopholes crafted by activist judges and globalist legislators, hardworking Americans who’ve paid into Social Security their entire lives are being told the well is running dry. They’re mocked with headlines about “entitlement reform” and threatened with benefit cuts, while watching their tax dollars fund services for people who have no legal right to be here.

Let me say this plainly: illegal aliens should not be here. That’s the real issue — not whether they’re tapping into Social Security.

The fact that we have to publicly debate whether to let foreign nationals steal from a system built by and for American workers is the very definition of national rot.

And let’s talk about Social Security itself. 

The system is broken — not because of American retirees, but because of government theft, mismanagement and legislative sleight of hand. 

Congress has raided the trust fund, spent it on everything from foreign wars to gender studies in Pakistan, and now pretends it’s our fault there’s a shortfall.

The average American would be better off putting that 6.2% payroll tax into a private investment fund and watching it grow rather than letting corrupt bureaucrats bleed it out into the black hole of government waste.

You know what would truly protect Social Security? Not just an executive order. Mass deportations. A sealed border. A total shutdown of the welfare pipeline that flows to non-citizens, non-contributors, and non-patriots. 

That would protect American seniors. That would honor the American worker.

And to those who think we need “more laws” to fix this —stop it. We don’t need more laws. We need courage. We need leaders who enforce the laws already on the books.

Article IV, Section 4 of the Constitution guarantees every state in this union a republican form of government and protection against invasion. What do you call millions of illegal crossings per year if not an invasion?

This is not about compassion. 

It’s about justice, sovereignty and survival. 

A nation that can’t tell the difference between a citizen and a foreign intruder isn’t a nation — it’s a playground for parasites.

President Trump’s order may make a splash. It may draw cheers. But let’s not lose sight of the bigger truth: the law is already clear. The Constitution already speaks. The betrayal is not in what’s being signed, but in what’s being ignored.

We don’t need more executive orders. We need a government that does its damn job.

Maureen Steele via American Greatness,

WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW!

DAX v RUSSELL TAKING OUT MULTI-YEAR HIGHS

The DAX vs Russell chart looks impressive printing new multi-year highs.

We called the shift to International Markets in our 2025 Investment Themes and the EU & Defense throughout Q1 in our weekly Lab Reports!

Sometimes we just get things right!!!!

Europe has remained firmly well bid…realizing almost no downside beta and all the upside beta when markets are higher. Think capital continues to look for pockets of diversification and that means other (relatively) liquid developed markets will continue to see the benefit.

RESEARCH – MARKET DRIVERS

1- HOW OVERVALUED IS THE US DOLLAR?

• • Fair Value for DXY has remained relatively stable over the past 15 years. In the year since the Dollar’s rally in 2021/22, it has since sustained a overvaluation around +20%, though the year-to-date Dollar softening trend has cut that valuation gap in half. 
  • Current Fair value estimates imply that the Dollar after recently falling is:

 ~9% overvalued on a DXY basis and

~13% on a Trade-Weighted basis.

2- Q1 2025 EARNING SEASON RECAP

• • Q1 earnings have been better than expected.
  • However, beats have not been rewarded as exuberantly as usual and misses have been hammered.
  • Earnings Better Than Feared, but analysts suggest it’s time to add hedges.

DEVELOPMENTS TO WATCH – POLICY DRIVERS

1- THE FOOD INDUSTRY HIJACKED THE FDA & OUR HEALTH – HHS SECRETARY KENNEDY SPELLS IT OUT

• • The food industry hijacked a decades’ old FDA loophole —one that allowed a flood of untested chemicals into our diets.
  • It started back in the 1940s, when the FDA first began regulating food.
  • At the time, they made one reasonable exception: ingredients with a long history of safe use — like wheat, eggs, and dair — wouldn’t need testing.
  • The result? America now has more than 10,000 approved food ingredients. E urope? Just 400.
  • “The people who are most obese are also malnourished. That’s never been seen before in human history.”

2- EU LEADERS TALKING AN EU MILITARY

• • Europe is once again talking about forming its own defense alliance.
  • The idea of a European army—discussed on and off since the early days of the Cold War — was revived in February by Volodymyr Zelensky.
  • The Ukrainian president claims that Donald Trump’s retraction of military support for Ukraine and ambivalence towards the EU shows that the bloc urgently needs its own military unit.
  • Zelensky has reignited a debate that has failed to generate consensus within Europe, despite its long history.

IT TAKES MONEY OR IN ECONOMIC PARLANCE: MASSIVE “REFLATION”.

GLOBAL ECONOMIC REPORTING – ECONOMIC DRIVERS

Q2 GDP

• • Q2 surging to 2.4% from -0.3%, which would make it higher than the average GDP print reported since the start of 2022.
  • With the Q1 GDP slowdown (entirely on the back of a surge in imports to frontrun tariffs and a slowdown in government spending, both in line with Trump’s policies), the difference between weather adjusted US power demand and US GDP growth flipped positive to +0.4pp[1] from -0.9pp a month ago and an average of -1.9pp in the past decade.  In other words, the historical relationship between the two series suggests that US GDP growth today is 3% or more. 

ISM SURVEY

• • While tariff announcements mean manufacturing dominates the news, a worrying backstory is developing in the vastly larger services economy, where business activity and hiring have come closer to stalling in April amid plunging business confidence.
  • Business and consumer facing service providers alike, and especially financial services firms, are reporting markedly weaker growth prospects, citing intensifying uncertainty over the economic outlook amid recent tariff announcements and ongoing federal spending cuts.