Gordon T Long Global Macro Research | Macro-Technical Analysis MACRO US FISCAL POLICY THE COMING DEBT CEILING DEBACLE?? The Debt Ceiling debate was deferred for two years in 2019 with a bipartisan deal that expires July 31. The debt in 2019 was $984B. The Biden Budget for 2021 is expected to be $3 […]
Gordon T Long Global Macro Research | Macro-Technical Analysis FEATURE ARTICLES MACRO – MONETARY & FISCAL POLICY TWO FLAWED HOPES: LIQUIDITY & STIMULUS For decades the “go to” strategy anytime financial turmoil, crisis or shocks impact the economy the solution has been two fold: i) Central Banks to immediately inject large amounts of Liquidity […]
Gordon T Long Global Macro Research | Macro-Technical Analysis MACRO MONETARY & FISCAL POLICY TOO BIG TO BAIL? The Global Central Banks are all conducting their regularly scheduled meetings this week. There can be little doubt that inter-bank dialogue has preceded these meetings to coordinate some measure of needed but not yet undertaken, global […]
Gordon T Long Global Macro Research | Macro-Technical Analysis MACRO MONETARY & FISCAL POLICY TOO MANY TO SAVE? The current market mentality is that the massive and unprecedented Monetary & Fiscal intervention measures are going to work. Many investors firmly believe in the proven market adage of: “Don’t Fight the Fed!”. It worked (on the surface) […]
WORLD DOLLAR LIQUIDITY IS FALLING Here is a summary of Dr Lacy Hunt’s work on the cause of the record rate of decline in World Liquidity. The Second Theorem: Monetary deceleration eventually lead to lower, not higher, interest rates as originally theorized by Milton Friedman. When the Fed makes changes to the monetary base, […]
ALARMINGLY, DEMOGRAPHICS SHOWS USA TO POTENTIALLY BE THE “LEAST UGLY” OVER NEXT 5-15 YEARS FACT: World Population Growth is declining in most developed countries: FACT: Population Growth: US and Japan: Notice the correlation between population growth declining and debt increasing. This suggests that debt has been typically used to offset the falling total population output […]
GDP GENERATING CAPACITY OF GLOBAL DEBT IS DIMINISHING RAPIDLY Here is a summary of Dr Lacy Hunt’s work on the Diminishing Return of the GDP Generating Capacity of Global Debt. The Production Function is dependent upon technology and the three factors of production: Land, Labor and Capital. The production function states that if you […]
GOVERNMENT SPENDING & SLOWING SAVINGS ARE STRANGLING CAPITALISM This is one of those charts that gets to the root problem! Bottom line: We simply have an insufficiency of savings and there is no political will to change it! EXPLANATION: The green line shows the national savings rate. It is currently at 3%. It is historically 6%. […]
WELL RESPECTED BOND EXPERT, LACY HUNT LAYS MMT BARE I have interviewed and talked to Lacy Hunt many times over the years. There are few out there with his depth and understanding of Monetary Policy. What he has to say on MMT (Modern Monetary Theory) needs to be carefully considered. First let’s read what Lacy […]
ONLY FOUR OPTIONS TO THE US $75T INSOLVENCY PROBLEM According to the Treasury Department’s annual financial report for Fiscal Year 2018 (which they just published last week), the US government is hopelessly bankrupt with a reported negative net worth of MINUS $75 TRILLION. To believe that any nation can be so desperately insolvent without suffering any […]
