COVID-19 HAS PROFOUNDLY CHANGED BEHAVIOR!

COVID-19 HAS PROFOUNDLY CHANGED BEHAVIOR!

What is important about Covid-19 is that it is establishing a “new normal” by changing social, business and government behavior. These are changes that are going to be with us for longer than we yet fully appreciate.

Regarding the Household Sector we see:

– An increase in precautionary savings for households, similar to what we saw after the Great Depression in the 1930s,

– More space between seats at restaurants, cinemas, sport events, concerts, conferences, trains, buses, and airplanes,

– Fewer people traveling on vacation and going out until we have a vaccine, all contributing to lower consumer spending,

– Older generations staying at home until a vaccine is released, less willingness to put parents in retirement homes,

– Limits on the number of people in supermarkets at the same time, more online shopping, more online doctor visits,

– Fewer people going to fitness centers, doing group sports,

– More people driving their own car to avoid public transportation,

– Health insurance premiums going up.

 Regarding the Corporate Sector we see:

– Less business travel globally, more video conferencing,

– Staggered work schedules, more distance between seats in offices, fewer cubicles,

– More permanent work from home solutions, more disaster planning

– Fewer buybacks, lower dividend payouts,

– Health insurance costs going up, higher insurance premiums,

– Increased pressure for paid sick leave, health benefits, labor protection, including for gig workers.

 Regarding the Government Sector we see:

– Global restrictions on travel to and from high-risk areas, more fever scanners at airports, borders,

– More regulation forcing households and corporate to hold, say, three months of cash in emergency savings,

– More regulation and spending to ensure health care system is better prepared, a global covid-19 immunity registry,

– Increased health safety regulations for retirements homes

– Stocking of medical supplies, including ventilators, domestically a desire to be less dependent on other countries

– More systematic planning and preparedness, perhaps introduce better automatic stabilizers

– More supply of government bonds, increasing risk of a debt crisis

WHAT DO WE CONCLUDE?