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  • April 27, 2017

    MORE THAN 60% CHANCE OF GLOBAL RECESSION WITHIN NEXT 18 MONTHS

    04-27-17-MACRO-US-MACRO OVERLAY-Global Recession-1
    MORE THAN 60% CHANCE OF GLOBAL RECESSION WITHIN NEXT 18 MONTHS KEY FOCUS: Global growth is expected to slow down significantly in the coming months as borrowing levels dominate in both China and Europe and "Trump-mania" is set to fade, Recession is more likely than not in the near future (12 to 18 months) based […]
  • April 26, 2017

    CENTRAL BANKS AGAIN OVERPOWER THE MARKET – REACT TO FRANCE / GEO-POLITICAL TENSIONS

    04-25-17-MACRO-SII-MINSKY MELT-UP-Long Term-MAs-1
    CENTRAL BANKS AGAIN OVERPOWER THE MARKET - REACT TO FRANCE / GEO-POLITICAL TENSIONS IGNORE WHAT THE MEDIA IS TELLING YOU ABOUT THE 500 pt DOW RALLY BEING ABOUT FRENCH ELECTION RELIEF! IT IS ABOUT THE RELEASE OF DATA ON INCREASED CENTRAL BANK BALANCE SHEET INCREASES!
  • April 26, 2017

    MONEY FLOW ACCELERATING: CENTRAL BANKS INCREASE BUYING TO $1T/QUARTER IN Q1 2017

    04-25-17-MACRO-SII-MINSKY MELT-UP-1
    MONEY FLOW ACCELERATING: CENTRAL BANKS INCREASE BUYING TO $1T/QUARTER IN Q1 2017 KEY POINTS: Latest overnight note from Michael Hartnett of Bank of America, notes that central banks (ECB & BoJ) have bought $1 trillion of financial assets just in the first four months of 2017, which amounts to $3.6 trillion annualized, "the largest CB […]
  • April 25, 2017
  • April 25, 2017
  • April 24, 2017

    FRENCH PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION – WHAT THEY STAND FOR!

    04-24-17-MACRO-REGIONAL-EU-FRANCE-Election 2017-Round-1-1
    FRENCH PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION - WHAT THEY STAND FOR! Here is a summary of what the final two candidates policies are as described by the Guardian: MACRON POLICIES Remake the “failed” and “vacuous” French political system; Relax labor laws; Cut business taxes; Reform unemployment system; Encourage social mobility; Cut public spending (but boost investment); Shrink public sector; Reduce the […]
  • April 23, 2017

    UK RETAILERS: WORST QUARTERLY SALES DROP IN 7 YEARS

    04-23-17-SII-RETAIL-UK_Retailing Experiencing Simialar Problems to US Retailers-1
    UK RETAILERS: WORST QUARTERLY SALES DROP IN 7 YEARS  KEY FOCUS: UK Retailers suffered their worst quarter in seven years - the fourth fall in the past five months, Clearest indication yet from the official data as to how rising prices are hitting consumer spending and hurting economic growth, The consumer is clearly coming under increasing […]
  • April 23, 2017

    SINCE 1990 MEDIAN HOUSING UP 160% BUT INCOME UP ONLY 90% = UNSUSTAINABLE

    04-23-17-MACRO-US-CATALYST-HOUSING-Prices vs Income-1
    SINCE 1990 MEDIAN HOUSING UP 160% BUT INCOME UP ONLY 90% = UNSUSTAINABLE KEY FOCUS: Median real estate prices are up 160% since 1990, whereas incomes are up 90%. Total number of second  homes are declining. Price increases are ultimately unsustainable and the Fed will be shrinking their balance sheet, shrinking real estate investments. Affordable […]
  • April 23, 2017

    MARIE LE PEN & FREXIT IS POTENTIALLY (BREXIT + TRUMP)**10

    04-23-17-MACRO-REGIONAL-EU-FRANCE-Frexit-Election-Round 1-1
    MARIE LE PEN & FREXIT IS POTENTIALLY (BREXIT + TRUMP)**10 SOURCE: Graham Summers - Phoenix Capital - "Why the Big Banks Are Terrified of Le Pen Winning in France (but not BREXIT or Trump)" -- France holds the first round of its Presidential election this weekend. The big worry for the markets is the fact […]
  • April 23, 2017

    MELTDOWN OF HOUSTON AUTO SALES HAS EERIE FINANCIAL CRISIS LOOK!

    04-23-17-SII-RETAIL-AUTO-Houston Auto Sales-Precursor-1
    MELTDOWN OF HOUSTON AUTO SALES HAS EERIE FINANCIAL CRISIS LOOK! KEY POINTS: NOTE: The author (Wolf Richter) spent his career in the Auto Dealership Industry and I believe Houston - This is not yet hitting the national media outlets, New car and truck sales by franchised dealers in the Houston area plunged 22.6% in March […]
  • April 23, 2017

    BANKS TIGHTENING LENDING STANDARDS FOR AUTO LOANS – BEHIND THE ‘MYSTERIOUS DROP’ IN CAR SALES?

    04-23-17-SII-RETAIL-AUTO-Bank Lending Standards Tighten-1
    BANKS TIGHTENING LENDING STANDARDS FOR AUTO LOANS - BEHIND THE 'MYSTERIOUS DROP' IN CAR SALES? KEY POINTS: Banks tightening lending standards as delinquencies pick up. March vehicle sales fell to an annualized pace of just 16.5 million, below expectations of 17.3 million and the weakest rate since February 2015. (Peak was 18M Annualized in 2017), […]
  • April 23, 2017

    FAILING MALLS TURN TO PARKING LOTS AS AN ASSET: CARNIVALS & EVENTS TO GENERATE CASH

    04-23-17-SII-RETAIL-Mall Parking Lots - Commercial Real Estate-1
    FAILING MALLS TURN TO PARKING LOTS AS AN ASSET: CARNIVALS & EVENTS TO GENERATE CASH  KEY POINTS With customer traffic sagging, U.S. retail landlords are using their sprawling concrete lots to host events such as carnivals, concerts and food-truck festivals, “Events draw people to come to the shopping center,” said Keith Herkimer, whose company, KevaWorks […]
  • April 23, 2017

    URBAN OUTFITTERS’ CEO: “RETAIL BUBBLE HAS BURST” – INDUSTRY WIDE 8640 STORE CLOSING PLANNED IN 2017

    04-23-17-SII-RETAIL-APPAREL-8640 Store Closings in 2017-1
    URBAN OUTFITTERS' CEO: "RETAIL BUBBLE HAS BURST" - INDUSTRY WIDE 8640 STORE CLOSING PLANNED IN 2017  KEY POINTS: “Thousands of new doors opened and rents soared. This created a bubble, and like housing, that bubble has now burst.”  - Richard Hayne, Urban Outfitters CEO, March 2017 "Barely a quarter into 2017, year-to-date retail store closings have […]
  • April 21, 2017

    CORPORATE DEBT TO EBITDA HITS ALL TIME HIGH

    04-21-17-MATA-FUNDAMENTALS-Debt-to-GDP and Bonds v GDP-1
    CORPORATE DEBT TO EBITDA HITS ALL TIME HIGH KEY POINTS: Most ways we slice the data, corporate leverage is elevated, in many cases at or near prior cycle peaks, IG gross leverage trends using medians, simple averages, weighted averages, a constant universe of companies, and aggregating total debt and EBITDA all tell a similar story. […]
  • April 21, 2017

    CENTRAL BANK ASSET ACCUMULATE ACCELERATES FROM ~200B/Mo to $250B/Mo ANNUALIZED

    04-21-17-MACRO-MONETARY-CENTRAL BANK-Balance Sheet Growth-1
    CENTRAL BANK ASSET ACCUMULATE ACCELERATES FROM ~200B/Mo to $250B/Mo ANNUALIZED  KEY POINTS: Latest overnight note from Michael Hartnett of Bank of America, notes that central banks (ECB & BoJ) have bought $1 trillion of financial assets just in the first four months of 2017, which amounts to $3.6 trillion annualized, "the largest CB buying on […]

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