Gordon T Long Global Macro Research | Macro-Technical Analysis GLOBAL MACRO ECONOMICS ARE WE THERE YET?? We believe eventually a Recession in the US will be officially labeled as beginning in Q3 2023. We expect current weakening economic conditions to accelerate in Q3 and to take us into negative GDP growth. This week’s LEI, […]
Gordon T Long Global Macro Research | Macro-Technical Analysis GLOBAL MACRO ECONOMICS THE BULLWHIP EFFECT COMETH! The Bullwhip Effect has become well understood by the post Covid-19 Global Supply Chain. It has resulted in a heightened appreciation of the distortions, costs incurred and margin impact from a lack of clear and reliable demand projections. […]
Gordon T Long Global Macro Research | Macro-Technical Analysis TIPPING POINTS INFLATION-DEFLATION A DIS-INFLATION / DEFLATIONARY WAVE LOOMING Deflation historically comes from rising job losses and elevated levels of national unemployment. Consumer stops spending, which in turn forces prices to be taken down by producers to sustain cashflow and financial survival at […]
Gordon T Long Global Macro Research | Macro-Technical Analysis tipping points BOND MARKET PREPARATIONS FOR THE POST DEBT CEILING MARKET The current Debt Ceiling wrangling will soon be resolved with the result being (as always) a dramatic increase in the debt ceiling. The establishment of a US debt ceiling has long been meaningless other […]
Gordon T Long Global Macro Research | Macro-Technical Analysis tipping points BOND MARKET ECONOMIC INDICATORS STEADILY DETERIORATING This week we do a deep dive into the deluge of economic indicators to see if there is consistent message signalling the realities of an imminent US Recession. THERE WAS! The only good news we witnessed was […]
Gordon T Long Global Macro Research | Macro-Technical Analysis MACRO – US ECONOMY ECONOMIC INDICATORS BROADENING & DESTABILIZING SHOCK WAVES We have mistakenly and naively inserted Instability into a World of Incredible Complexity. The result has been and will continue to be broadening cascading shocks! SEQUENTIAL SERIES OF BROADENING CASCADING SHOCKS: SHOCK 1: COVID-19 […]
Gordon T Long Global Macro Research | Macro-Technical Analysis MACRO – US ECONOMY DEBT MARKET THE PIPER MUST BE PAID! Unfortunately I am old enough to remember clearly when there were no credit cards, everything was transacted in cash (or consequentially simply not transacted at all) and banks lived by Borrowing Long Term and […]
