18 YEAR HIGH CONSUMER CONFIDENCE SENDS A WARNING –SOURCE: 09-25-18 – “Consumer Confidence Explodes To 18 Year High But Wage-Gain Hopes Fade” — American consumers’ optimism about the short-term outlook improved considerably in September, with the Conference Board Consumer Confidence index soaring to 138.4 from 134.7 (smashing expectations of a dip to 132.1). “After a […]
MM Sentiment
SMALL BUSINESS CONFIDENCE BREAKS HIGH SET UNDER REAGAN
SMALL BUSINESS CONFIDENCE BREAKS HIGH SET UNDER REAGAN — SOURCE: 09-11-18 – “”Groundbreaking Numbers”: Small Business Confidence Smashes Prior High Set Under Reagan” In the latest sign that the Trump administration’s economic policies are fueling an economic boom, the National Federation of Independent Businesses reported Tuesday that its gauge of small business optimism had risen […]
CONSUMER CONFIDENCE EXPLODES TO 18 YEAR HIGH AS INCOME EXPECTATIONS HIT RECORD
CONSUMER CONFIDENCE EXPLODES TO 18 YEAR HIGH AS INCOME EXPECTATIONS HIT RECORD — SOURCE: 08-28-18 – “Consumer Confidence Explodes To 18 Year High As Income Expectations Hit Record” — As ‘soft’ survey data continues to catch down to ‘hard’ real economic data’s recent demise, Conference Board Confidence shuns the slump and explodes higher to 133.4 (exp […]
ST LOUIS FED FINANCIAL STRESS INDEX SIGNALS MARKET COMPLACENCY
ST LOUIS FED FINANCIAL STRESS INDEX SIGNALS MARKET COMPLACENCY The chart below shows the St. Louis Financial Stress Index, which measures how much stress there is in the U.S. financial system. Obviously, we would all rather live in a world with low financial stress instead of high financial stress, but very low levels in the […]
SENTIMENT: VIX BACK TO 10 HANDLE SUGGESTS COMPLACENCY
SENTIMENT: VIX BACK TO 10 HANDLE SUGGESTS COMPLACENCY The chart below shows the well-known CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), which is a barometer of how fearful U.S. stock investors are. The VIX remained at ultra-low levels during the housing bubble era and it has been following a similar pattern for the past eight years or so. During both bubbles, […]
HIGH YIELD SPREAD SPEAKS TO COMPLACENCY
HIGH YIELD SPREAD SPEAKS TO COMPLACENCY The Bank of America-Merrill Lynch High-Yield Spread, which tracks the spread or difference between high-yield corporate bond yields (also known as “junk bonds”) and U.S. Treasury bond yields. High-yield bonds have higher yields than safer investment grade bonds to compensate investors for their higher risk. In a bubble or time of complacency, […]
NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF ACTIVE INVESTMENT MANAGERS’ EXPOSURE INDEX OMINOUSLY DIVERGING FROM S&P 500
NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF ACTIVE INVESTMENT MANAGERS’ EXPOSURE INDEX OMINOUSLY DIVERGING FROM S&P 500 The NAAIM Exposure Index represents the average exposure to US Equity markets reported by our members. The green line shows the close of the S&P 500 Total Return Index on the survey date. The blue line depicts a two-week moving average of the NAAIM […]
CONSUMER CONFIDENCE DOWN IN JUNE
CONSUMER CONFIDENCE DOWN IN JUNE by Jill Mislinski, 6/26/18 The latest Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index was released this morning based on data collected through June 15. The headline number of 126.4 was a decrease from the final reading of 128.8 for May, an upward revision from 128.0. Today’s number was below the Investing.com consensus of 127.6. Here is an excerpt […]
ACTIVE INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT SENTIMENT HAS SHIFTED – DOWN
ACTIVE INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT SENTIMENT HAS SHIFTED – DOWN The NAAIM Exposure Index represents the average exposure to US Equity markets reported by our members. The green line shows the close of the S&P 500 Total Return Index on the survey date. The blue line depicts a two-week moving average of the NAAIM managers’ responses. It is important […]
THE UP / DOWN RATIO SHOWS THE MARKET IS EXTREMELY NERVOUS
THE UP / DOWN RATIO SHOWS THE MARKET IS EXTREMELY NERVOUS — SOURCE: 06-05-18 ZeroHedge – “The Market Has Not Been This “Nervous” Since 2008″ — If there is one thing traders have learned from the past decade, it is that the VIX, or “fear” index as it is still incorrectly called in various financial […]