MARKET COMPLACENCY IS SURGING WHILE AGAIN POTENTIAL VOLATILITY IS NOT BEING PRICED IN — SOURCE: 06-05-18- Palisade Research.com, Adam Tumerkan – “The Smart Money’s Bailing As Market Complacency Surges” — Last week I wrote about the forgotten economist – Hyman Minsky – and his excellent work about the Financial Instability Hypothesis (FIH), which details how an economy […]
MM Sentiment
NAAIM’S MARKET “RISK-REWARD” INDEX AT MAJOR LOW
NAAIM’S MARKET “RISK-REWARD” INDEX AT MAJOR LOW The NAAIM Index depicts a two-week moving average of the NAAIM managers’ responses. This week’s NAAIM Exposure Index number is: 52.56 Last Quarter Average 78.08 It is important to recognize that the NAAIM Exposure Index is not predictive in nature and is of little value in attempting to […]
SENTIMENT: CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INCREASES MODERATELY IN APRIL
SENTIMENT: CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INCREASES MODERATELY IN APRIL — SOURCE: 04-24-18 Jill Mislinski – “Consumer Confidence Increased Moderately in April” — The latest Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index was released this morning based on data collected through April 12. The headline number of 128.7 was an increase from the final reading of 127.0 for March, a downward revision from […]
INVESTORS SPOOKED BY MULTITUDE OF “FRIGHTS” AS SENTIMENT PLUMMETS
INVESTORS SPOOKED BY MULTITUDE OF “FRIGHTS” AS SENTIMENT PLUMMETS U of Michigan Consumer Confidence Tumbles Most In 18 Months This drop is the biggest since Oct 2016 (before Trump’s election)… Chart Source: ZeroHedge — FROM ZH – 04-13-18 – “UMich Consumer Confidence Tumbles Most In 18 Months” — While UMich rose to a 14-year high […]
UNDERSTANDING CONSUMER COMFORT: POWER POINT PRESENTATION
LONGWave-04-11-18-APRIL-Sentiment Slide Deck
SENTIMENT: CONSUMER COMFORT CLIMBS TO 17 YEAR HIGH
SENTIMENT: CONSUMER COMFORT CLIMBS TO 17 YEAR HIGH In an editorial 08-22-17 entitled “WHAT WE KEEP FORGETTING ABOUT MARKET EUPHORIA & GREED” I outlined that in the Short Term the market reacts to Sentiment. I showed that research by Dr Ed Yardeni indicated how closely) the Consumer Comfort Index in fact tracks the Forward S&P […]
BLOOMBERG SMART MONEY INDEX – FLOWS ARE NOW AS BIG AS PRE-DOT COM CRASH
BLOOMBERG SMART MONEY INDEX – FLOWS ARE NOW AS BIG AS PRE-DOT COM CRASH WE HAVE TO GO BACK TO 1999 TO SEE SUCH A DIVERGENCE Both Charts Coutesy of ZeroHedge.com NOTE: The index is hovering at its lowest in two years – since the start of The Shanghai Accord – suggesting a very different regime might have recently […]
UoM SENTIMENT AT CYCLE HIGH – POSITIVE SENTIMENT FROM LOW END OF INCOME BRACKET
UoM SENTIMENT AT CYCLE HIGH – POSITIVE SENTIMENT FROM LOW END OF INCOME BRACKET
JP MORGAN WARNS THAT THE RETAIL BID APPEARS TO BE DISAPPEARING
JP MORGAN WARNS THAT THE RETAIL BID APPEARS TO BE DISAPPEARING EXTRACTED FROM: 03-05-18 JP Morgan via ZH In a report by JPM’s Nik Panigirtzoglou, the strategist cautions that the “erratic behavior of retail investors this past week and the spreading of equity ETF outflows out to non-US equities” has jeopardized the idea that […]
SENTIMENT SIGNAL FLASHING FOR FIRST TIME IN 40 YEARS
SENTIMENT SIGNAL FLASHING FOR FIRST TIME IN 40 YEARS The recent stock sell-off spooked II bulls in a big way SOURCE: 02-08-18 Schaeffer Financial Last week, we remarked on a bullish extreme in the weekly Investors Intelligence (II) sentiment survey, in which the “bulls minus bears” line jumped to the 99th percentile of its annual range. However, […]