Gordon T Long Global Macro Research | Macro-Technical Analysis MACRO US MONETARY POLICY POWELL’S POLITICAL PIVOT(S) The US Federal Reserve operates in an independent fashion to a large degree, separated from the turmoils of political pressures. There are however a few exceptions, the most notable being: During the Renomination Cycle of an incumbent Fed […]
A RISK-ON — RISK-OFF INDICATOR TO WATCH The FAANGS and major Tech stocks have been a strong driver of the markets since the 2008 Financial Crisis. They are included in most market index ETFs and therefore they normally take the market with them when they move. Recently they have shown relative weakness and when they […]
REAL RATES & MBS HEDGING FLOWS 10Y TNX was trading at 1.55 earlier this AM before falling off (currently 1.52 from a close yesterday of 1.485). The current rise is about a rapidly increasing REAL RATES. Credit is becoming more expensive! Real Rates increase based on Credit Availability and Demand. What causes real interest […]
Gordon T Long Global Macro Research | Macro-Technical Analysis MACRO US MONETARY & FISCAL POLICY A FINANCIAL SHOCKWAVE OF POLITICALLY DRIVEN POLICY BLUNDERS THERE WILL BE UNINTENDED CONSEQUENCES! We have been witnessing the wholesale and rapid withdrawal of central bank stimulus globally: Last week the ECB was the second giant to Taper bond […]
RECAP: PLANNED US TAX INCREASES Here is a recap of the planned tax increases being debated in congress and expected to be part of the Biden Regime’s $3T Tax Increases.
EXPECTED US DEBT CEILING & “CR” ROADMAP Here is our assessment of what to expect during the upcoming Congressional Debt Ceiling debate tied to the $3.5T Continuing Resolution (CR). Our conclusion is to expect Sub-Option-Plan A
Gordon T Long Global Macro Research | Macro-Technical Analysis MACRO US FISCAL POLICY THE COMING DEBT CEILING DEBACLE?? The Debt Ceiling debate was deferred for two years in 2019 with a bipartisan deal that expires July 31. The debt in 2019 was $984B. The Biden Budget for 2021 is expected to be $3 […]
Gordon T Long Global Macro Research | Macro-Technical Analysis MACRO US MONETARY POLICY WHAT JUST HAPPENED?? The dust began to settle last week after the prior week’s key events, which included; an FOMC Meeting shift, an important Quadruple Witch & an historic trillion dollar GAMMA adjustment. Fortunately the fallout has left important road signs […]
Gordon T Long Global Macro Research | Macro-Technical Analysis MATA DRIVERS: INFLATION THE PROBLEM IS MOST INFLATION IS REAL ‘STICKY’! I have spent years analyzing the nuances of Inflation, Disinflation, Deflation et al. and yet I still learn more with each cycle. In my analysis I have come to trust some data sources more […]
Gordon T Long Global Macro Research | Macro-Technical Analysis MACRO US MONTARY POLICY DID THE FED JUST IMPLEMENT STEALTH YIELD CURVE CONTROL (YCC)? Broad based US Inflation has become clearly evident everywhere and to everyone! The May CPI released Thursday showed the inflation headline number soared 5.0% Y-o-Y against an already expected hot […]
