REAL RATES & MBS HEDGING FLOWS 10Y TNX was trading at 1.55 earlier this AM before falling off (currently 1.52 from a close yesterday of 1.485). The current rise is about a rapidly increasing REAL RATES. Credit is becoming more expensive! Real Rates increase based on Credit Availability and Demand. What causes real interest […]
Gordon T Long Global Macro Research | Macro-Technical Analysis TIPPING POINTS BOND BUBBLE BOND MARKET NEEDS TO CONSOLIDATE BOND MARKET NEEDS TO CONSOLIDATE The historic lift in bond yields has rapidly changed the investment landscape. Bond holders have experienced ~3.7% losses so far in 2021. It has been one of the worst year-beginning starts […]
Gordon T Long Global Macro Research | Macro-Technical Analysis STRATEGIC INVESTMENT INITIATIVES BONDS & CREDIT IS THIS A RATE SCARE RATHER THAN A ‘TRANSITORY’ INFLATION SCARE? What exactly are we afraid of? It was always a safe bet that there would be an inflation scare at some point early this year. Just the base […]
Gordon T Long Global Macro Research | Macro-Technical Analysis STRATEGIC INVESTMENT INITIATIVES BONDS & CREDIT YCC IS NOW A FORGONE EVENTUALITY! You can only play so many games before you are often trapped in a situation of your own creation. This is the situation the Fed finds itself in. Nothing makes this clearer than […]
Gordon T Long Global Macro Research | Macro-Technical Analysis SII BONDS & CREDIT IS SOMETHING BREWING? We have highlighted on numerous occasions in prior video releases how the reality of fundamentals and valuations have effectively ‘disconnected’ from the equity and bond markets. This is not unexpected since markets historically shift from extremes of confidence versus […]
Gordon T Long Global Macro Research | Macro-Technical Analysis SII BONDS & CREDIT US TREASURY BENCHMARK SIGNALING PONTENTIAL YIELD BREAKOUT We are witnessing some notable movements in two key benchmarks we are following. The 10Y US Treasury Yield is showing initial signs of a potential broken-out to the upside from a tight consolidation pattern. […]
Gordon T Long Global Macro Research | Macro-Technical Analysis SII COMMODITIES – BONDS & CREDIT CHINA MAY HAVE BEGUN PLAYING ITS “TRUMP CARD”? What most are forgetting is that when it comes to any global reflationary spark, China – and its $40 trillion financial system which is double that of the US – has been […]
Gordon T Long Global Macro Research | Macro-Technical Analysis SII BONDS & CREDIT IT’S THE MORTUARY FOR MANY MUNI’S & REMAINING MONOLINES The Muni Bond Market and still solvent Monoline insurers were already facing serious funding and credit rating problems prior to Covid-19, which has made the situation even more tenuous, despite the Fed’s Municipal […]
US 10Y TREASURY PUTTING IN A CLASSIC “BOTTOM” & “REVERSAL” PATTERN After breaking through the TNX’s long term overhead resistance we fully expected the long term overhead resistance to be tested since technically what was ‘resistance’ often becomes support after a breakout. Additionally, since the TNX was coming from its upper 12 & 24 MMA […]
CREDIT MARKETS CRACKING IN A SYSTEMIC LIKE FASHION Here are Monday’s charts pulled from a report which give further detail of the yield drop shown above in the current “TNX” MATASII chart. VIX vs HY vs IG Credit markets are starting to crack more systemically… Flashing very bright warning lights to stocks… BONDS Bond […]
