Gordon T Long Global Macro Research | Macro-Technical Analysis tipping points BOND MARKET ECONOMIC INDICATORS STEADILY DETERIORATING This week we do a deep dive into the deluge of economic indicators to see if there is consistent message signalling the realities of an imminent US Recession. THERE WAS! The only good news we witnessed was […]
Gordon T Long Global Macro Research | Macro-Technical Analysis TIPPING POINTS CONSUMER CONFIDENCE WHAT WE LEARNED FROM EARNINGS CALLS & LAYOFF ANNOUNCEMENTS The past week was the third week of “Earnings Season” when 40% of the S&P500 reports with ~64% having reported their Q1 earnings. This is sufficent to draw some conclusions. The earnings […]
Gordon T Long Global Macro Research | Macro-Technical Analysis TIPPING POINTS CONSUMER CONFIDENCE CRACKING CONFIDENCE & CRUMBLING COLLATERAL In our latest Macro Analytics video, Charles Hugh Smith and I review the “Waterfall” that is presently underway in the area of: The Repricing of Risk The Revaluing of Collateral, and A Forced Increase in Productivity […]
Gordon T Long Global Macro Research | Macro-Technical Analysis TIPPING POINTS US BANKING CRISIS TOO MANY TO FAIL! Over the recent holiday season I penned this year’s Thesis paper “A Great Stagflation”. I talked about the coming “Beta Drought Decade” that would usher in global stagflation and a series of unfolding events driven […]
Gordon T Long Global Macro Research | Macro-Technical Analysis TIPPING POINTS US BANKING CRISIS AMERICA’S “POTTERSVILLE” NEARLY 80 YEARS LATER! In 1947 the classic Christmas movie “It’s A Wonderful Life” was released. The depiction of the banking turmoils of George Bailey fighting rival small town banker “Old Man Potter” warm the hearts of all […]
Gordon T Long Global Macro Research | Macro-Technical Analysis TIPPING POINTS US BANKING CRISIS BIDEN BONDS TOO HOT FOR BANK COLLATERAL! The net of the current banking crisis is that: 1 – Biden’s Spending => 2 – Inflation => 3 – Exploding Yields => 4 – The Instability of Banks’ Core Stabilizing Asset […]
Gordon T Long Global Macro Research | Macro-Technical Analysis TIPPING POINTS US BANKING CRISIS THE ‘TELLS’ OF SVB & POWELL’S CONGRESSIONAL TESTIMONY When the US’ 16th largest bank fails with $169B in uninsured deposits not covered by FDIC on a total asset base of $200B, markets panic! The collapse of the Silicon Valley Bank […]
Gordon T Long Global Macro Research | Macro-Technical Analysis TIPPING POINTS INFLATION PRESSURES STUBBORN INFLATION PRESSURES DELAYING FED PIVOT Weakening Inflation is not sticking to the script by coming down relatively quickly. Instead it is universally stubbornly coming in higher than expectations and actually increasing on a M-o-M basis. This isn’t just a US […]
Gordon T Long Global Macro Research | Macro-Technical Analysis TIPPING POINTS HOUSING & EMPLOYMENT HOUSING’S “10 MONTH CANARY” RULE The US Housing sector is one of the pillars of the US Economy. When the US Housing sector experiences serious disruption it can be expected to result in earning contraction in ~10 months. Housing is […]
Gordon T Long Global Macro Research | Macro-Technical Analysis TIPPING POINTS MARKET RISK THE DE-STABILIZING FISCAL SHOCK WAVE NOW KICKING IN The spending and public policies implemented under the auspices of a Coivd-19 recovery are only now being felt. Rather than achieving their intended purpose, they are resulting in a de-stabilizing shock to the […]
