MACRO ANALYTIC COVERAGE INITIATED
A PUBLIC SOURCED ARTICLE FOR MATASII
SII - DEFENSE
- Revenue are falling at Y-o-Y of -6.7%
- A major contributor to TEXTRON is Bell Helicopter,
- The troubled Osprey& Valor have proven a poor attempt at a hybrid Helicopter - Fast Troop Transporter,
- The aging Vietnam Era Hughie Helicopter (Yankee - Bell UH-1Y) is past its prime.
- The Sikorsky-Boeing's Co-Axial Helicopter (just announced) is a Bell Helicopter "Killer" in both speed, range and cost.
CHART OUTLINE INDEX:
- ORIGINAL IDEA
- PRIMARY INDICATOR - Longer Term: 6 Months - 2 Years
- 12 & 24 Monthly MA Bands
- 5/13/21 Monthly EMA
- SECONDARY INDICATOR - Intermediate Term - 3 Months - 12 Months
- 20/40/80 Weekly - MATA Indicator
- 20/40/80 Weekly MA Bollinger Bands
- TERTIARY INDICATOR - Near Term - Next 1- 3 Months
- 50/100/200 DMA
- 89 DMA w/BB
ORIGINAL IDEA - PUBLISHED JANUARY 12th 2017
TXT has been in a steady rising channel since 2009. Current market sits at the top edge of a blue s/r zone: lifting through the top of the zone around $50.75 (and finding support from it) offers a potential opportunity for a lift to the channel resistance (sloped trend line ~$54.50 at this time). A break of the channel would have us looking towards the next technical: a Fibonacci level around $57.00. IF the market continues from there, the next significant levels can be seen at the next blue s/r zone around $63.30.
Note that there is a potential for the channel to hold. IF this occurs, or the current blue s/r holds and the market falls off from here, then waiting for a drop below $45.75 would offer less risk. Note the green s/r that could offer support just below this. A blue s/r and then the next lower blue s/r zone are target levels to watch: support could come from any of them.
PRIMARY INDICATOR - Long Term: 6 Months - 2 Years
- NEUTRAL Bias - In Transition, Not Yet Trending
- Negative Bias would occur if the 12 MMA was to be clearly below the 24 MMA
- A break of the lower support trend line (in black) would confirm a NEGATIVE Bias
- We are approaching a NEGATIVE Bias since the 13 Monthly EMA (BLUE) is clearly above the 21 Monthly EMA (BLACK) while the 5 EMA has crossed below both the 13 & 21 EMAs
- We have had price break the lower 2 standard deviation of the longer term Regression. This suggests an approaching trend reversal,
- There is a strong possibility of price approaching the lower trend support (dotted line in orange) somewhere over the next two quarters.
SECONDARY INDICATOR - Intermediate Term - 3 Months - 12 Months
- MATA INDICATOR (Bottom Panel) is turning NEGATIVE,
- Further movements down would turn it NEGATIVE and would likely signal a key inflection point lower (accelerating decline).
- This is currently the most important chart in this update,
- A break below 50.60 (the original LONG Trigger) is a very important support level,
- The 40 WMA is about to signal a "Death Cross" as it crosses the 80 WMA,
- If the 40 breaks below the 80 WMA then we have the 20 below the 40 WMA which is also below the 80 WMA - A NEGATIVE bias.
- Additionally, we have already had price bounce off (i.e. test) the 80 WMA's 2 Standard Deviation Bollinger Band giving an initial Bollinger Band Cross,
- A price target of 44 within two quarters is a strong possibility if price continues to weaken.
TERTIARY INDICATOR - Near Term - Next 1- 3 Months
- The 50 DMA has moved above the 100 as a result of price bouncing off the 200 lower Bollinger Band and a 61.8% Fibonacci Retracement,
- A lower GAP (NOT the upper one highlighted in yellow) is presently being filled as a result of this bounce.
- There is a strong chance that price will close on the falling 200 DMA before possibly heading lower.
- The MATA Indicator suggests we are headed lower if the current overhead resistance holds,
- Price is below the 89 DMA and the 31 DMAS is rolling over - not good signs,
- There are strong indications we will test the $47.47 support level which is 6% lower than we are currently trading at.
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