MACRO ANALYTIC COVERAGE INITIATED: TEXTRON  (TXT)

MATASII SYNTHESIS:

• Revenue are falling at Y-o-Y of -6.7%
• A major contributor to TEXTRON is Bell Helicopter,
• The troubled Osprey& Valor have proven a poor attempt at a hybrid Helicopter - Fast Troop Transporter,
• The aging Vietnam Era Hughie Helicopter (Yankee - Bell UH-1Y) is past its prime.
• The Sikorsky-Boeing's Co-Axial Helicopter (just announced) is a Bell Helicopter "Killer" in both speed, range and cost.

CHART OUTLINE INDEX:

1. ORIGINAL IDEA
2. PRIMARY INDICATOR - Longer Term: 6 Months - 2 Years
   1. 12 & 24 Monthly MA Bands
   2. 5/13/21 Monthly EMA
3. SECONDARY INDICATOR - Intermediate Term - 3 Months - 12 Months
   1. 20/40/80 Weekly - MATA Indicator
   2. 20/40/80 Weekly MA Bollinger Bands
4. TERTIARY  INDICATOR - Near Term - Next 1- 3 Months
   1. 50/100/200 DMA
   2. 89 DMA w/BB

ORIGINAL IDEA - PUBLISHED JANUARY 12th 2017

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TXT has been in a steady rising channel since 2009. Current market sits at the top edge of a blue s/r zone: lifting through the top of the zone around $50.75 (and finding support from it) offers a potential opportunity for a lift to the channel resistance (sloped trend line ~$54.50 at this time). A break of the channel would have us looking towards the next technical: a Fibonacci level around $57.00.  IF the market continues from there, the next significant levels can be seen at the next blue s/r zone around $63.30.

Note that there is a potential for the channel to hold. IF this occurs, or the current blue s/r holds and the market falls off from here, then waiting for a drop below $45.75 would offer less risk. Note the green s/r that could offer support just below this.  A blue s/r and then the next lower blue s/r zone are target levels to watch: support could come from any of them.

PRIMARY INDICATOR - Long Term: 6 Months - 2 Years

• NEUTRAL Bias - In Transition, Not Yet Trending
• Negative Bias would occur if the 12 MMA was to be clearly below the 24 MMA
• A break of the lower support trend line (in black) would confirm a NEGATIVE Bias

• We are approaching a NEGATIVE Bias since the 13 Monthly EMA (BLUE) is clearly above the 21 Monthly EMA (BLACK) while the 5 EMA has crossed below both the 13  & 21 EMAs
• We have had price break the lower 2 standard deviation of the longer term Regression. This suggests an approaching trend reversal,
• There is a strong possibility of price approaching the lower trend support (dotted line in orange) somewhere over the next two quarters.

SECONDARY INDICATOR - Intermediate Term - 3 Months - 12 Months

• MATA INDICATOR (Bottom Panel) is turning NEGATIVE,
• Further movements down would turn it NEGATIVE and would likely signal a key inflection point lower (accelerating decline).

• This is currently the most important chart in this update,
• A break below 50.60 (the original LONG Trigger) is a very important support level,
• The 40 WMA is about to signal a "Death Cross" as it crosses the 80 WMA,
• If the 40 breaks below the 80 WMA then we have the 20 below the 40 WMA which is also below the 80 WMA - A NEGATIVE bias.
• Additionally, we have already had price bounce off (i.e. test) the 80 WMA's 2 Standard Deviation Bollinger Band giving an initial Bollinger Band Cross,
• A price target of 44 within two quarters is a strong possibility if price continues to weaken.

TERTIARY  INDICATOR - Near Term - Next 1- 3 Months

• The 50 DMA has moved above the 100 as a result of price bouncing off the 200 lower Bollinger Band and a 61.8% Fibonacci Retracement,
• A lower GAP (NOT the upper one highlighted in yellow) is presently being filled as a result of this bounce.
• There is a strong chance that price will close on the falling 200 DMA before possibly heading lower.

• The MATA Indicator suggests we are headed lower if the current overhead resistance holds,
• Price is below the 89 DMA and the 31 DMAS is rolling over  - not good signs,
• There are strong indications we will test the $47.47 support level which is 6% lower than we are currently trading at.