WHAT THE CAPE/VIX RELATIONSHIP TELLS US IS LOOMING AHEAD We were in the process of writing about the technical pattern in the VIX when we came across some research by Peter Schiff of Euro Pacific Capital illustrating the historical correlation of the CAPE/VIX Ratio to US Recessions go back to 1990. We have been warning about a […]
MM Highlights Key charts
THE “ICARUS RALLY” AUTHORS SEES A LITTLE MORE TO GO WITHIN THE “GREAT DISRUPTION”
THE “ICARUS RALLY” AUTHORS SEES A LITTLE MORE TO GO WITHIN THE “GREAT DISRUPTION” BofA’s chief investment strategist Michael Hartnett originally coined the term “Icarus Rally” to define the rally driven by “Big Global QE and Big Global EPS”. The Icarus Rally was based on Disruption, Demographics, Debt continuing to prove deflationary, thereby tying the hands […]
THE US$, 10Y UST, YIELD CURVE AND TRUMP APPROVAL RATING ARE HIGHLY CORRELATED
THE US$, 10Y UST, YIELD CURVE AND TRUMP APPROVAL RATING ARE HIGHLY CORRELATED The US Dollar and 10 Y US Treasury has become a “close correlation trade” But Also Remember Trump’s Approval Rating is Closely Tracking the US$ As well as the US Treasury Yield Curve A possible rise in the US$, despite lower UST […]
RVA SIGNALLING A LOOMING US RECESSION
RVA SIGNALLING A LOOMING US RECESSION Economists prefer to measure economic activity without the effect of inflation. If inflation were rampant when making the chair in the example above, some of the incremental value was due to the general trend of rising prices and not value added by 720Global. To strip out the effect of […]
BoAML’S GLOBAL FINANCIAL STRESS INDEX SPIKES MOST SINCE 2011 US DEBT DOWNGRADE
BoAML’S GLOBAL FINANCIAL STRESS INDEX SPIKES MOST SINCE 2011 US DEBT DOWNGRADE –SOURCE: 08-13-17 BoAML via ZH – “Global Financial Stress Index Spikes Most Since 2011 US Downgrade” — For the first time in four months, BofAML’s Global Financial Market Stress index has turned positive – signalling more market stress than normal. As the spat […]
THE ICARUS RALLY – SUMMER EUPHORIA & FALL CRASH
THE ICARUS RALLY – SUMMER EUPHORIA & FALL CRASH According to the latest BofA flow show report, Michael Hartnett writes: Strong inflows, “active” inflows, big returns, record low private client cash…Icarus won’t soar forever; but big Humpty-Dumpty fall in risk assets awaits hawkish central banks + EPS/GDP reversals; in absence of immediate negative impact on small […]
US NET WORTH TO DISPOSABLE PERSONAL INCOME IS AGAIN PROBLEMATIC
US NET WORTH TO DISPOSABLE PERSONAL INCOME IS AGAIN PROBLEMATIC
CITI’S HARD DATA AT TROUBLING TWO YEAR LOW!
CITI’S HARD DATA AT TROUBLING TWO YEAR LOW! Citi bank is showing the fall in the US Hard Data Surprise Index which on Friday tumbled to a fresh two-year low. The fall to such low levels occurred due to the near one standard deviation miss in June retail sales. In contrast, US soft data surprises are […]
FEW REMAINING BEARS ARE BEING SHOT!
FEW REMAINING BEARS ARE BEING SHOT! More people that are shorting the market in the near term are being forced to immediately cover once their narrow stop losses were triggered. As JPM’s Prime Broker Service showed last week, the amount of short covering just hit a YTD high. As of this week, the short interest […]