Gordon T Long Global Macro Research | Macro-Technical Analysis GLOBAL MACRO ECONOMICS THE BULLWHIP EFFECT COMETH! The Bullwhip Effect has become well understood by the post Covid-19 Global Supply Chain. It has resulted in a heightened appreciation of the distortions, costs incurred and margin impact from a lack of clear and reliable demand projections. […]
Gordon T Long Global Macro Research | Macro-Technical Analysis TIPPING POINTS INFLATION-DEFLATION A DIS-INFLATION / DEFLATIONARY WAVE LOOMING Deflation historically comes from rising job losses and elevated levels of national unemployment. Consumer stops spending, which in turn forces prices to be taken down by producers to sustain cashflow and financial survival at […]
Gordon T Long Global Macro Research | Macro-Technical Analysis MACRO GLOBAL ECONOMICS THE TRIFECTA RACE The race is underway on what will deliver the hardest blow to the coming US recession. It will either be: A liquidity shock of the increased funding of the US Treasury’s TGA, as a result of the massive increase […]
Gordon T Long Global Macro Research | Macro-Technical Analysis tipping points BOND MARKET PREPARATIONS FOR THE POST DEBT CEILING MARKET The current Debt Ceiling wrangling will soon be resolved with the result being (as always) a dramatic increase in the debt ceiling. The establishment of a US debt ceiling has long been meaningless other […]
Gordon T Long Global Macro Research | Macro-Technical Analysis tipping points BOND MARKET ECONOMIC INDICATORS STEADILY DETERIORATING This week we do a deep dive into the deluge of economic indicators to see if there is consistent message signalling the realities of an imminent US Recession. THERE WAS! The only good news we witnessed was […]
Gordon T Long Global Macro Research | Macro-Technical Analysis MACRO – US ECONOMY ECONOMIC INDICATORS BROADENING & DESTABILIZING SHOCK WAVES We have mistakenly and naively inserted Instability into a World of Incredible Complexity. The result has been and will continue to be broadening cascading shocks! SEQUENTIAL SERIES OF BROADENING CASCADING SHOCKS: SHOCK 1: COVID-19 […]
Gordon T Long Global Macro Research | Macro-Technical Analysis MACRO – US ECONOMY DEBT MARKET THE PIPER MUST BE PAID! Unfortunately I am old enough to remember clearly when there were no credit cards, everything was transacted in cash (or consequentially simply not transacted at all) and banks lived by Borrowing Long Term and […]
Gordon T Long Global Macro Research | Macro-Technical Analysis TIPPING POINTS CONSUMER CONFIDENCE WHAT WE LEARNED FROM EARNINGS CALLS & LAYOFF ANNOUNCEMENTS The past week was the third week of “Earnings Season” when 40% of the S&P500 reports with ~64% having reported their Q1 earnings. This is sufficent to draw some conclusions. The earnings […]
Gordon T Long Global Macro Research | Macro-Technical Analysis TIPPING POINTS CONSUMER CONFIDENCE CRACKING CONFIDENCE & CRUMBLING COLLATERAL In our latest Macro Analytics video, Charles Hugh Smith and I review the “Waterfall” that is presently underway in the area of: The Repricing of Risk The Revaluing of Collateral, and A Forced Increase in Productivity […]
Gordon T Long Global Macro Research | Macro-Technical Analysis THESIS PAPERS UPDATE – 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021 THE FOURTH TURNING IS HAPPENING! In my daily exchanges with colleagues and subscribers it is quite clear there are opposing views of what is happening on the global stage. Feelings differ significantly from those held within America […]
