US 10Y UST – DOWNWARD PRESSURE SHORT TERM, UPWARD PRESSURE TO 2.9% IN 2018 SHORT TERM – DOWNWARD PRESSURE ON YIELDS The recent move lower in yields underlines that despite: The ECB scaling back on bond purchases, A strong global business, Fed rate hikes .. we should not expect to see a rapid further rise […]
SF
EXPORT CURRENCIES LEAD DEBASEMENT – IMPORT CURRENCIES MUST SIGNAL A “LESSER” DEGREE
EXPORT CURRENCIES LEAD DEBASEMENT – IMPORT CURRENCIES MUST SIGNAL A “LESSER” DEGREE
WHAT THE CAPE/VIX RELATIONSHIP TELLS US IS LOOMING AHEAD
WHAT THE CAPE/VIX RELATIONSHIP TELLS US IS LOOMING AHEAD We were in the process of writing about the technical pattern in the VIX when we came across some research by Peter Schiff of Euro Pacific Capital illustrating the historical correlation of the CAPE/VIX Ratio to US Recessions go back to 1990. We have been warning about a […]
SMART SAVVY INVESTORS OR MINDLESS NEGLIGENCE?
SMART SAVVY INVESTORS OR MINDLESS NEGLIGENCE? “Stock Market has increased by 5.2 Trillion dollars since the election on November 8th, a 25% increase.” Dow’s up over 15.5 percent year-to-date. The value of global equities is now 3 1/2 times that at the financial crisis bottom in March 2009. The dollar-denominated capitalization of worldwide shares (Aided […]
WHAT IS DRIVING THIS RALLY’S RELENTLESS REGISTRATION OF RECORDS?
WHAT IS DRIVING THIS RALLY’S RELENTLESS REGISTRATION OF RECORDS? OBSERVATION By some quantitative measures, the recent bid is among the most relentless the market has seen in the past half century, No matter how the market opened, it has consistently closed the day strongly, Going back 55 years, the average cumulative intra-day losses over a 25-day […]
THE “ICARUS RALLY” AUTHORS SEES A LITTLE MORE TO GO WITHIN THE “GREAT DISRUPTION”
THE “ICARUS RALLY” AUTHORS SEES A LITTLE MORE TO GO WITHIN THE “GREAT DISRUPTION” BofA’s chief investment strategist Michael Hartnett originally coined the term “Icarus Rally” to define the rally driven by “Big Global QE and Big Global EPS”. The Icarus Rally was based on Disruption, Demographics, Debt continuing to prove deflationary, thereby tying the hands […]
THE US$, 10Y UST, YIELD CURVE AND TRUMP APPROVAL RATING ARE HIGHLY CORRELATED
THE US$, 10Y UST, YIELD CURVE AND TRUMP APPROVAL RATING ARE HIGHLY CORRELATED The US Dollar and 10 Y US Treasury has become a “close correlation trade” But Also Remember Trump’s Approval Rating is Closely Tracking the US$ As well as the US Treasury Yield Curve A possible rise in the US$, despite lower UST […]
YIELD MOVES ARE NOW GLOBAL, MORE THAN EVER
Sovereign bond yields are really one big market in the current era. Different central banks are having different types of inflation or deflation fights all the time and are varying states of the stimulate-normalize-hike cycle at any given time. But this is swamped by the ability of global portfolio managers to allocate capital all over […]
WATCH US$ & CONSUMER COMFORT AS ECB’S OCTOBER 26TH MEETING APPROACHES!
WATCH US$ & CONSUMER COMFORT AS ECB’S OCTOBER 26TH MEETING APPROACHES! LATEST CONSUMER COMFORT UPDATE: US CONSUMER COMFORT PLUNGES MOST IN 13 MONTHS AS “PERSONAL FINANCE” FEARS MOUNT ————————————————————————————————– EXISTING POST: WATCH US$ & CONSUMER COMFORT AS ECB’S OCTOBER 26TH MEETING APPROACHES! Unless you have been living under a rock you are well aware of what […]
SENTIMENT: CONSUMER COMFORT CORRELATES WITH FORWARD S&P 500 PE
SENTIMENT: CONSUMER COMFORT CORRELATES WITH FORWARD S&P 500 PE In my recent editorial entitled “WHAT WE KEEP FORGETTING ABOUT MARKET EUPHORIA & GREED” I outlined that in the Short Term the market reacts to Sentiment. The following research by Dr Ed Yardeni shows how closely (bottom chart) the Consumer Comfort Index in fact tracks the […]