UNDERSTANDING THE 2017 US DOLLAR SWOON & RECENT 2018 LIFT EXPLAINING THE 2017 US$ SWOON — SOURCE: 05-12-18 Global Money Trends – “US$ Continues to Sag despite Outlook for 3 more Fed rate hikes” — Well into 2018, a few FX traders are still struggling to understand the underlying bearish trend of the US$. […]
THE US$ SHORT SQUEEZE MAY ONLY BE STARTING? What is driving what? Currently many feel a US$ shortage was responsible for pushing the LIBOR-OIS spread up, but it also understood that the US$ follows the LIBOR-OIS spread with an approximate 3 month delay. It would appear that “a little soon begets a lot”! This is […]
LIBOR-OIS RISE MAY PORTEND UNEXPECTED RISE IN US$ LIBOR tend to be a 3-month leading indicator to the dollar, which as Citi recently showed would mean a surge in the USD, sending shock-waves across global risk markets…
UNDERSTANDING THE 2017 US$ WEAKNESS Not shown in the chart above is the US Treasury selling pressures from China and Japan as they reduced their dollar FX Reserves. It really began to increase after the Trump election victory. Prior to this the banks were already concerned with what they saw ahead for the US Economy […]
US DOLLAR LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE FURTHER NEAR TERM WEAKNESS DUE TO GLOBAL STRENGTH — SOURCE: 10-04-17 Bloomberg — Dollar skeptics are dubious about whether the greenback’s rally has got legs. Amundi, which oversees more than $1.1 trillion, prefers to wager on European currencies, Schroder Investment Management is putting its money into emerging markets. Eaton Vance in […]
2017’s DOLLAR COLLAPSE THE WORST SINCE 1985 — SOURCE: 08-02-17 Authored by Steven Vannelli via Knowledge Leaders Capital blog, The USD is off to its worst start since 1985, down about 9%. In the chart below (courtesy of Bianco Research), it appears the USD is tracing its performance in 1985 quite closely. Of course, 1985 was the worst year […]
WEAK DOLLAR MAY BE THE EARNINGS BOOST REQUIRED TO KEEP THE MARKET LEVITATED LONGER? The U.S. dollar, down 8 percent this year, will probably weaken further, according to Morgan Stanley. That’s primarily good news for American stock investors. The greenback may finish 2017 down 13 percent, handing S&P 500 companies a 6.5 percent boost to their […]
DOLLAR HITS A NEW 2017 LOW ON SOFTER THAN EXPECTED US DATA Summary: The greenback slipped to a new low this year after bad U.S. economic releases. Gold ended its downtrend since 6, June low as it broke above H4-period EMA60. We will get monetary policy decisions both from BOJ and ECB. U.S. dollar weaken […]
MAJOR CURRENCY REALIGNMENTS APPEAR UNDERWAY Shift Away from US/Canadian Dollar to Euro/Pound BACKDROP As the MACRO SURPRISE INDEX fell dramatically and aggregate Treasury complex positioning (in 10Y equivalents) shifted back into bearish territory in the last two weeks — The Eurodollar shorts (bets on rate hikes) increased back near record shorts… However, while Eurodollar shorts (rate […]
EURODOLLAR SHORTAGE IS CRIPPLING GLOBAL CREDIT GROWTH When the Shanghai Accord was launched the US Dollar needed to be taken down from a level approaching 117 based on the BIS’s REER. The “trend line” suggested this was a global limit to the Us Dollar’s strength which has previously forced or triggered major adjustments in […]
