BERNSTEIN WARNS: OIL MAY JUMP PAST $150 ON CHRONIC UNDER INVESTMENT — SOURCE: 07-06-18 OilPrice.com, Tsvetana Paraskovia – “Bernstein: Oil May Jump Past $150 On Chronic Underinvestment” — A supply shortfall is lurking should major oil companies continue to underinvest in exploring for new oil reserves, and this “chronic underinvestment” is setting the stage for the […]
TRIGGER$ July 2018
CONSUMER CONFIDENCE DOWN IN JUNE
CONSUMER CONFIDENCE DOWN IN JUNE by Jill Mislinski, 6/26/18 The latest Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index was released this morning based on data collected through June 15. The headline number of 126.4 was a decrease from the final reading of 128.8 for May, an upward revision from 128.0. Today’s number was below the Investing.com consensus of 127.6. Here is an excerpt […]
ACTIVE INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT SENTIMENT HAS SHIFTED – DOWN
ACTIVE INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT SENTIMENT HAS SHIFTED – DOWN The NAAIM Exposure Index represents the average exposure to US Equity markets reported by our members. The green line shows the close of the S&P 500 Total Return Index on the survey date. The blue line depicts a two-week moving average of the NAAIM managers’ responses. It is important […]
TRADE WARS ARE BEARISH NEAR TERM, BULLISH LONG TERM FOR THE DOLLAR
TRADE WARS ARE BEARISH NEAR TERM, BULLISH LONG TERM FOR THE DOLLAR —- SOURCE: 07-05-18 ZeroHedge – “Why One Trader Thinks Trade War Will Send The Dollar Tumbling” — LONG TERM TRADE WARS ARE DOLLAR BULLISH According to conventional wisdom, trade wars are bullish for the dollar, for two main reasons: They tend to be […]
WANT TO WIN DURING A PROTRACTED TRADE WAR? GO LONG THE DOLLAR!
WANT TO WIN DURING A PROTRACTED TRADE WAR? GO LONG THE DOLLAR! — SOURCE: 07-05-18 Bloomberg – “Want to Win the Trade War? Long the Dollar” — Greenback seen a better haven than yellow metal in trade melee Currency’s correlation to stocks became inverted this year Trade wars are good, and easy to win — […]
GOLDMAN: CLOSES OUT “TOP TRADE” UST SHORT, BUT STILL SEES YE 3.25% & 3.6% IN 2019
GOLDMAN: CLOSES OUT “TOP TRADE” UST SHORT, BUT STILL SEES YE 3.25% & 3.6% IN 2019 — SOURCE: 07-01-18 ZeroHedge – “Goldman Closes Out “Top Trade” To Short Treasuries” — After calling the market’s peak earlier in the year when it said that the January market meltup marked the top of the S&P, last Friday, […]
AMAZON, MICROSOFT, APPLE & NETFLIX ACCOUNT FOR 84% OF 2018 S&P UPSIDE
AMAZON, MICROSOFT, APPLE & NETFLIX ACCOUNT FOR 84% OF 2018 S&P UPSIDE — SOURCE: 07-02-18 ZeroHedge – “Amazon Alone Is Responsible For More Than A Third Of The S&P’s Return This Year” — Whether it is capital inflows that cause stock outperformance, or rising stocks leads to investors chasing upside is one of those perpetual […]
IG BOND SPREADS SENDING A CLASSIC BEARISH STOCK SIGNAL
IG BOND SPREADS SENDING A CLASSIC BEARISH STOCK SIGNAL — SOURCE: 07-02-18 Seeking Alpha – “A Bearish Stock Signal From IG Spreads” — KEY MESSAGE As the corporate bond market goes, so goes the stock market Over the past three decades, the directionality of investment grade corporate bond spreads has been strongly related to equity […]